US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB252

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000252 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PINR, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT:  LIBERAL PARTY ELECTS A NEW PRESIDENT 
 
1.  SUMMARY: YALE POROFESSOR IVO BANAC WAS ELECTED AS THE 
NEW PRESIDENT OF THE LIBERAL PARTY (LS) A JUNIOR MEMBER OF 
THE GOC COALITION, DEFEATING ZLATKO KRAMARIC BY A SLIM 
MARGIN.  ALTHOUGH FREQUENTLY A CRITIC OF THE CURRENT 
GOVERNMENT, BANAC SAID THE LIBERAL PARTY WOULD CONTINUE TO 
PARTICIPATE IN THE RULING COALITION.  HIS AMBITION TO 
IMPROVE THE LS'S STANDING INSIDE THE COALITION, HOWEVER, MAY 
BE THWARTED BY HIS DECISION TO PURSUE PARALLEL CAREERS ON 
BOTH SIDES OF THE ATLANTIC.  END SUMMARY. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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2.  YALE PROFESSOR IVO BANAC WAS ELECTED THE THIRD PRESIDENT 
OF THE LIBERAL PARTY (LS) AT A JANUARY 25 PARTY CONVENTION. 
IN A SECOND ROUND, BANAC NARROWLY DEFEATED HIS OPPONENT, 
INCUMBENT ZLATKO KRAMARIC, BY A MARGIN OF SIX VOTES. 
 
3.  IN THE WAKE OF THE JANUARY 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 
THE LS ENTERED THE RULING COALITION AS A JUNIOR PARTNER 
HOLDING ONLY TWO SEATS IN PARLIAMENT.  THE NUMBER INCREASED 
WHEN TWO ETHNIC MINORITY REPRESENTATIVES JOINED THE PARTY 
CAUCUS.  OVERALL, HOWEVER, DURING KRAMARIC'S TWO-YEAR TERM 
AS PRESIDENT, THE PARTY APPEARED TO HAVE LOST THE MODEST 
SUPPORT IT HAD UNDER ITS LATE FOUNDER AND FIRST PRESIDENT 
VLADO GOTOVAC. 
 
4.  ALTHOUGH A FREQUENT COMMENTATOR ON POLITICAL TRENDS IN 
CROATIA, BANAC IS RELATIVELY NEW IN HIS ROLE AS POLITICIAN. 
MUCH LIKE GOTOVAC, BANAC HAS BEEN VIEWED AS A MORAL VOICE 
RATHER THAN A LEADER.  HIS FREQUENT SHARP CRITICISM OF THE 
PAST HDZ GOVERNMENT -- AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CURRENT 
RACAN GOVERNMENT -- HAS SOMETIMES EARNED HIM A REPUTATION AS 
A "RADICAL."  IMMEDIATELY BEFORE AND DURING THE LEADERSHIP 
STRUGGLE, KRAMARIC WAS ONLY THE LATEST TO HINT AT BANAC'S 
RADICALISM.  AFTER HIS DEFEAT AT THE PARTY CONVENTION, 
KRAMARIC TOLD THE PARTY RANK AND FILE THAT "RADICALISM IN 
THE PARTY WILL NOT PASS."  OVERALL, THE LEADERSHIP, 
INCLUDING THE LS VICE PRESIDENTS, IS MODERATE. 
 
5.  AT THE CONVENTION, BANAC PROMISED TO REBUILD THE PARTY 
THROUGH HARD WORK ON THE GROUND WITH ACTIVE PARTICIPATION OF 
EVERY LOCAL CHAPTER.  HE PROPOSED THE LS AS THE "THIRD 
OPTION" AGAINST A BIPOLAR POLITICAL SPECTRUM WHERE THE HDZ 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00252  040821Z 
AND THE SDP DOMINATE.  HOWEVER, BANAC STRESSED THAT HIS 
PARTY WOULD STAY IN THE SDP-LED GOVERNMENT COALITION AS LONG 
AS THE GOVERNMENT IS DETERMINED TO CONTINUE THE REFORMS. 
 
6.  COMMENT: BANAC RIGHTLY COUNTED ON HIS STATUS AS A 
POLITICAL NEWCOMER TO GET ELECTED TO THE HELM OF A PARTY 
EXPERIENCING A DECLINE IN SUPPORT.  THIS STATUS COULD ALSO 
BE HELPFUL FOR THE PARTY IN A NATION INCREASINGLY 
DISAPPOINTED WITH THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, AND STILL 
SUSPICIOUS OF THE PEOPLE FROM THE OLD HDZ GOVERNMENT. 
HOWEVER, BANAC'S VOCAL AND AMBITIOUS PROMISES TO REBUILD THE 
LIBERAL PARTY AND STRENGTHEN LIBERAL DEMOCRACY IN CROATIA 
WERE SOMEWHAT DILUTED WITH HIS SUDDEN DEPARTURE BACK TO THE 
U.S. WHERE HIS PREOFESSORIAL DUTIES REQUIRE HIS PRESENCE FOR 
A FEW MORE MONTHS -- MONTHS THAT MIGHT BE CRITICAL FOR THE 
FRAGILE COALITION GOVERNING A COUNTRY APPROACHING ELECTIONS. 
HIS CAMPAIGNING ACTIVISM THAT WON HIM THE PARTY PRESIDENCY 
MAY NOT SERVE HIM WELL IN THE PRACTICALITIES OF POLITICAL 
LEADERSHIP. 
 
ROSSIN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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