US embassy cable - 03ANKARA808

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000808 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLAD AND J-5 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: ARINC FLEXING PARLIAMENT'S MUSCLES 
 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 8252 
     B. ANKARA 7682 
     C. ANKARA 8873 
 
 
(U) Classified by PolCouns John Kunstadter.  Reason: 1.5(b)(d) 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: The growing popular desire in Turkey for 
comprehensive, systemic change and a more open society gives 
Parliament, under leadership of AK Party heavyweight Bulent 
Arinc, room to assert itself and its constitutional 
prerogatives.  In principle the process should be a boon to 
democratization.  At the same time, partly owing to the 
inexperience of the large majority of M.P.'s, it is likely to 
promote strains among leading AK figures and complicate GOT 
decision making.  End summary. 
 
 
---------------- 
The Old Paradigm 
---------------- 
 
 
2. (C) As in western parliamentary democracies, Turkey's 
Parliament has the formal power to make law and declare war. 
Nevertheless, parliamentary primacy in Ankara has long been 
figurative.  Real power traditionally has been exercised 
largely through a network of enduring, if informal, 
arrangements and relationships so ubiquitous as to confound 
the formal governing process.  Indeed, historically, Turkey's 
Kemalist state apparatus, laws that perpetuate a top-down 
political party structure, and the natural Turkish cultural 
tendency toward authoritarianism all too often have vitiated 
not only the role of Parliament but the power of elected 
civilians to make decisions on national security and other 
policy issues (refs A, B). 
 
 
------------------------------ 
AK's Rise -- and Parliament's? 
------------------------------ 
 
 
3. (C) The growing popular desire for comprehensive, systemic 
change and a more open society -- reflected both in 
widespread support for EU membership and the landslide Nov. 3 
election victory of the Justice and Development (AK) Party -- 
opens the way for Parliament to reassert its constitutional 
prerogatives.  AK came to power not only as the first 
single-party government in 15 years.  Replacing the 
fragmented legislatures of previous years, AK controls an 
overwhelming parliamentary majority of 362 (of 550) 
legislative seats, just short of a majority sufficient to 
amend the constitution and far outstripping the opposition 
pro-Establishment Republican People's Party (CHP), with 177 
seats.  Numerous AK contacts have described to us their 
intentions of promoting Parliament as an "independent" actor 
and as the ultimate repository of the national will. 
 
 
---------------- 
The Arinc Factor 
---------------- 
 
 
4. (C) The most vigorous proponent of Parliament's primacy is 
its ambitious Speaker, Bulent Arinc.  An AK heavyweight, 
Arinc was not the choice of either AK Chairman Erdogan or 
P.M. Gul, who preferred more nondescript and 
non-confrontational figures for the job.  Rather than 
allowing himself to be bypassed, however, Arinc muscled his 
way into the post by promoting his own candidacy and drawing 
on his own considerable support among the AK grassroots and 
more ideological elements of the Parliamentary Group.  While 
Erdogan, Gul, and Arinc profess to be working together -- and 
share the same overall commitment to AK policy goals -- the 
manner of Arinc's election as Parliament President has 
established him as a force to be reckoned with.  AK 
Parliamentary Group leaders assert to us that as Speaker, 
Arinc has left day-to-day AK affairs behind him. 
Nevertheless, they laud him both as a comrade and as a 
promoter of Parliament's interests and responsibilities. 
 
 
5. (C) Arinc is rhetorically reaffirming the Speaker's 
traditional role above the fray of partisan politics, partly 
to demonstrate his independence from Erdogan and Gul.  Even 
so, he is using his position as a bully pulpit to promote his 
ideological and personal power interests in ways that have 
generated considerable controversy. 
 
 
-- Shortly after assuming office, Arinc took the highly 
symbolic step of having his headscarf-clad wife join him to 
see off President Sezer on a mid-November trip abroad, 
prompting mainstream criticism of Arinc and AK for allegedly 
promoting an "anti-secularist" agenda and bringing to the 
fore ideological issues that Erdogan and Gul had hoped to 
downplay early on (ref C).  With Sezer out of town, Arinc 
received Speaker Hastert in the Presidential Palace, 
emphasizing his role as "Acting President." 
 
 
-- Arinc has publicly offered the cryptic comment that he 
"will not support the mistakes of Erdogan," a criticism 
apparently designed to show the voters that he (unlike P.M. 
Gul) is not beholden to the AK Chairman.  Arinc's January 
visit to northern Cyprus, according to several contacts, was 
not coordinated with either Erdogan or the Gul government. 
Arinc is now expressing support for "TRNC President" Denktas 
even as AK and Erdogan publicly take Denktas, his cronies, 
and the Turkish Establishment to task for promoting 
corruption on the island and foot-dragging in the UN Cyprus 
talks. 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
6. (C) The effort by the Arinc-led Parliament to assert 
itself is likely to have considerable impact on USG equities 
here.  A stronger Parliament would be a boon for 
democratization, and could help break down the life-and-death 
control of party leaders over their subordinates -- a 
process, already underway in AK, which accounts in part for 
AK's "multi-headed" government (septel).  A more assertive 
Parliament will help redress the perceived imbalance between 
the State -- unelected bureaucrats and others long accustomed 
to wielding nearly independent power -- and elected civilians 
by promoting responsibility and accountability in the 
political class.  However, the new Parliament is full of 
inexperienced legislators whose ability to handle the rigors 
of legislative action is questionable.  And to the extent the 
current Parliament breaks with the rubber-stamp practices 
traditionally associated with Turkish legislative activity, 
it will also promote strains among AK's leading figures -- 
particularly Erdogan, Arinc, and Gul -- and thus complicate 
GOT decision making. 
PEARSON