US embassy cable - 03FRANKFURT926

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 000926 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, GM 
SUBJECT:  B-W CDU CAUCUS CHIEF EXPECTS M-P TEUFEL TO STEP 
DOWN IN THE SUMMER OF 2004 
 
1.  Summary: In a meeting with Consul General on January 29, 
Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) caucus chief Guenther Oettinger, 
the possible successor to B-W Minister President Erwin 
Teufel (CDU), spoke about the upcoming elections in Hesse 
and Lower Saxony and his own political future.  He also used 
the occasion to express his party's firm support of the U.S. 
Administration. Oettinger criticized the national government 
for straining the U.S.-German relationship for purely 
tactical reasons.  Concerning the upcoming state elections 
in Hesse and Lower Saxony, Oettinger is confident that the 
CDU will win both elections.  Via the Bundesrat, the CDU 
will increase the pressure on the national government to go 
ahead with fundamental reforms.  Concerning his own future, 
Oettinger stated that he expects Minister President (M-P) 
Teufel to step down in the middle of next year to give his 
successor a chance to start on the 2006-election campaign. 
Oettinger hinted that he would be ready to take over if the 
party supports him.  In any case, he will not be available 
as caucus chief in the next legislative period starting 
2006.  End Summary. 
 
2.  Oettinger expressed his deep regret over the tension 
that Chancellor Schroeder has brought into the German- 
American relationship. The B-W state government and in 
particular the state CDU are disappointed that 55 years of 
friendship with the U.S. are being jeopardized for tactical 
reasons.  However, Oettinger believes that the "Iraq card" 
will not work for the state elections in Hesse and Lower 
Saxony.  According to him, the voters want to hear about 
internal issues like unemployment, education or taxes. 
 
3. Oettinger was fairly confident that Hesse M-P Roland Koch 
will be re-elected. Christian Wulff, the CDU candidate 
running against Lower Saxony M-P Siegmar Gabriel (SPD) is in 
a slightly different situation in that he would not have a 
chance if the national SPD/Green coalition government wasn't 
as unpopular as it is.  Since the federal government has no 
new ideas and no clear plan for the nation, the electorate 
in the two states will take the opportunity to cast a 
protest vote.  He predicted that most of the frustration 
would hit the SPD.  The Greens are in a better position 
since they are not that close to the unions and thus in a 
better position to call for reforms. 
 
4.  Concerning the future of the liberal Free Democratic 
Party (FDP), Oettinger pointed out that the FDP is in a 
pretty comfortable situation in the southwest.  B-W is the 
political home of both the FDP and the Greens.  The Liberals 
are deeply rooted in the southwest and their prospects in B- 
W are good.  For the national party, he sees no quick 
solution to the Moellemann-Westerwelle conflict.  The FDP's 
"18 percent" strategy was not enough to convince voters, 
since it could not make up for the lack of a party platform 
with mass appeal.  Oettinger sees the FDP back in its 
traditional role of a kingmaker after the Hesse and Lower 
Saxony State elections.  In both states, the Liberals will 
be needed to secure a majority in parliament for either 
party - a role they have been playing for decades.  A CDU 
election victory in Hesse and Lower Saxony will not bring 
down the national government. However, it will bring the CDU 
into a position to exert even greater influence on national 
politics from the Bundesrat in which the opposition already 
enjoys a majority).  The CDU will try to speed up the reform 
process and will force the national government to make 
compromises.  An election victory in both states would 
increase the CDU majority in the Bundesrat in such a way 
that it could almost be considered a "parallel government," 
Oettinger said. 
 
5.  When asked about possible CDU/Greens cooperation on 
state level, Oettinger noted that a CDU/Greens coalition 
will come whenever it helps to avoid SPD/PDS or SPD/Greens 
coalitions.  As an example, he cited the Saarland as 
possible model for the first CDU/Green coalition on a state 
level in 2004.  However, as long as the FDP is available as 
a coalition partner, there is no need for the CDU to 
consider cooperation with the Greens. 
 
6.  Concerning his own political future in the southwest, 
Oettinger stated that M-P Teufel would not run in the 2006 
election campaign.  Next year, the CDU will have to decide 
who is to succeed Teufel, Oettinger said.  He noted that it 
would be an important advantage for the party if the CDU can 
go into the 2006 election campaign with a new Minister 
President who has already assumed responsibility.  Oettinger 
also stated that in case the CDU does not decide in his 
favor, he would no longer be available for the position of 
caucus chief in the next legislative period. 
 
Bodde