US embassy cable - 03LAGOS239

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000239 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2008 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, SOCI, KWMN, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AD PARTY - CONSENSUS OF YORUBA NATION? 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES FOR REASONS 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
 
 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY. Despite recent factionalization, the Alliance 
for Democracy (AD) in Lagos State presented the public with a 
face of party consensus in their January 8 gubernatorial 
congress.  Following his challengers' disqualification, 
incumbent Governor Bola Tinubu took the nomination unopposed. 
 Tinubu used the occasion to announce that Femi Pedro, 
managing director of First Atlantic Bank plc, will replace 
the embattled Senator Kofoworla Bucknor-Akerele as his deputy 
governor.  The congress promised much but revealed little 
about the AD's potential as a cross-regional party.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
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THE INCUMBENT'S RUBBER STAMP 
---------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) Incumbent Lagos State Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu 
received 100 percent of the 304 delegates' votes on Jan. 8. 
The two gubernatorial challengers had been disqualified from 
the contest by the internal AD screening committee. 
Reportedly, the first challenger, David Olasumbo Onitiri, had 
failed to produce proper tax documents while the second, 
Babatunde Olowu, was unable to prove his AD credentials. 
(The local chapter of which he claimed to be a member told 
the screening committee their records showed no sign of 
Olowu's membership.)  One or both of the challengers 
allegedly misrepresented material facts on the nomination 
forms.  Tinubu expressed his disappointment at the lack of 
competition in his acceptance speech but called the exercise 
free, fair, and transparent. (Comment.  Tinubu himself, 
however, has been known to play fast and loose with the facts 
and has been caught in the past embellishing his educational 
achievements.  A current rumor on the street is that Tinubu 
has a criminal record in the U.S. which would 
constitutionally disqualify him for elective office.  In 
fact, he never had a criminal arrest, but the rumor is too 
juicy to let die and we may hear more during the course of 
the campaign.  End comment.) 
 
 
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NEW DEPUTY GOVERNOR APPOINTED 
----------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) Tinubu concluded his acceptance speech with the 
announcement that Olufemi Pedro, managing director of First 
Atlantic Bank plc, was his choice to fill the hole left by 
embattled Senator (Ms.) Kofoworla Bucknor-Akerele's bitter 
resignation as deputy governor late last year.  A source 
confirms that State Commissioner of Economic Planning and 
Budget Yemi Cardoso was offered the position of Deputy 
Governor but declined.  Source alleges that Cardoso, a "quiet 
Christian," is highly talented as a government official but 
is "not a big politician."  Tinubu and Pedro claim to have a 
strong working relationship and mutual respect. 
 
 
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DELEGATES' DEMOGRAPHY AND REPRESENTATIVES' SELECTION 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 
4. (U) Delegates included state commissioners, AD executive 
committee members, senators, and members of the houses of 
assembly and representatives.  AD voting procedures call for 
delegates to line up in front of their candidate of choice. 
Since Tinubu ran unopposed, the party chairman asked 
delegates to indicate their vote for the incumbent by 
"standing up to be counted" when their local government was 
called.  Delegations from Oshodi/Isolo, Surulere, and Ikorodu 
local councils were absent and therefore not represented at 
the congress.  "Logistical reasons" prevented these three 
councils from appearing at the congress, according to the 
congress organizers.  Onitiri posits that the missing 
delegates "were not allowed to participate in the exercise 
because they knew their votes would not be for Tinubu." 
Delegates from the other 17 local governments of Lagos gave 
unanimous support to Tinubu:  Agege 16, Animosho 18, Ajeroni 
18, Apapa 17, Amuwo 16, Badagary 15, Epe 24, Eti-osa 19, 
Ije-Lekki 15, Ifako 16, Ikeja 18, Kosofe 16, Lagos Island 28, 
Lagos Mainland 16, Mushin 19, Ojo 14, and Shomolu 19.  The 
entire process took less than an hour and a half.  Election 
observer Chief Kemi Odebiyi registered just one complaint 
with PolOff the polling began six hours behind schedule. 
 
 
5. (C) ETHNICITY, AGE and GENDER.  PolOff's search for 
non-Yoruba delegates was fruitless, despite enlisting the 
help of INEC observers and the governor's aide, Folorunsho 
Folarin-Coker.  Delegates ranged in age from their 20s to 60s 
and upwards.  Often, the delegate who appeared to be eldest 
among the delegates of a given local government was elected 
unopposed as the constituents' nominee to the House of 
Representatives.  Where the candidate ran unopposed, the most 
senior voter would stand paunch to paunch with the candidate 
in a show of apparent solidarity.  Other times, younger 
candidates were supported by aging delegates.  Although many 
elections involved no choice of candidates, several proved to 
be a real contest.  In cases where a winner could not be 
determined, delegates were asked to consult amongst 
themselves and prepare for another vote at the end of the 
contest. 
 
 
6.  (C)  According to some analysts, single women are more 
likely to participate in politics than married women, whose 
husbands frequently "prohibit" them from such activities. 
Financing a campaign is also a consideration, and currently 
there are very few women with the desire to enter politics as 
well as the money to invest in a campaign.  As a result of 
these constraints, the vast majority of the delegates and the 
contestants were male.  Nonetheless, a few daring females ran 
for the party's nomination to the House of Representatives. 
Like their male counterparts, most of the female contestants 
withdrew at the last moment in the name of "peace and harmony 
for the good of the party," hinting at strong influences in 
decision-making from beyond public view and across gender 
lines.  Of the other females who had had the nerve to contest 
for local seats, two received no votes while a third received 
a single vote against overwhelming support for their male 
competitors. 
 
 
7. (C) Adefunmilayo Smith-Tejuoso, (Mushin Local Government, 
Lagos State) however, managed to gain all but one of her 
fellow delegates' votes to beat her sole male opponent for 
the post of Mushin's AD Representative.  An exuberant 
Smith-Tejuoso told PolOff that she barely had been able to 
stand from her chair to walk forward and contest after 
watching one after another of her fellow women step down from 
their contests.  Still struggling to catch her breath after 
the vote, Smith-Tejuoso reflected, "I felt like I should win. 
 I knew I understood the issues better than my opponent and I 
had really worked to gain the support of each of the voters. 
But, you know, in an election you never know for certain what 
the outcome will be!" 
 
 
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VIOLENCE MARS SENATORIAL NOMINATIONS 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
8. (C) Violence accompanied the January 9 primaries for the 
Lagos AD senatorial candidates.  Incumbent Senator for Lagos 
Central Tokunbo Afikuyomi defeated former Mushin Local 
Government Chairman Alhaji Ganiyu Solomon and Barrister 
Adegbesan to gain the nomination for the Lagos West 
senatorial candidature.  Protesters against Afikuyomi's 
victory allegedly barricaded the entry and exit points at the 
venue.  Although Afikuyomi won 122 of the 143 votes, his 
opponents argued that as a non-resident of the area, he is 
ill-suited to represent the district.  Protesters reportedly 
doused two police anti-crime squad members with "a substance 
which appeared to be acid," provoking an exchange of gunfire. 
 Protesters "smashed" several vehicles and caused other 
mischief against official property.  Tinubu countered reports 
that the demonstration resulted in his being held hostage at 
the venue for several hours, saying the atmosphere was 
"carnival-like" and democratic.  (Comment. Folarin-Coker, 
however, admitted that the convention had been "held hostage" 
with delegates "barricaded" inside the hall.  He blamed the 
incident on local "area boys" (street gangs of young, 
unemployed men who can be paid to engage in political 
violence) who had a "number of ill-defined complaints" 
against the local government.  He continued saying that these 
"supporters" of the losers did not say the poll was rigged. 
They just engaged in open violence following the outcome. 
End comment.) 
 
 
9. (U) Former Lagos State Commissioner for Home Affairs and 
Culture Musiliu Obanikoro won the Lagos Central senatorial 
nomination with 72 of 85 votes against Lanre Towry-Coker (who 
received four) and Dapo Durosinmi-Etti (who received nine). 
Dr. Olorunnimbe Mamora, Speaker of the Lagos State House of 
Assembly, won the Lagos East senatorial nomination unopposed 
when his challengers stepped down from the competition. 
 
 
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NATIONAL SCENE: WAITING FOR PRIME TIME 
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10. (U) At the state level, AD is dominated almost 
exclusively by Yoruba ethnic nationals.  At the executive 
council level, major AD players are northerners.  The party's 
upper echelons appear to slowly be building a national 
political strategy.  Since Governor Mala Kachallah defected 
to the AD, Borno State has joined Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, 
Ondo, and Ekiti states as AD ruled.  AD is hoping to gain 
ground in Plateau, Kaduna, and Kwara States this round and 
hold those states it currently controls.  The AD has not 
declared a manifest "bill of rights" yet because it "wants to 
take things a step further," a source argues. 
 
 
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PDP MERGE?  REACTION TO OBASANJO'S PDP NOMINATION 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
11. (C) AD leaders continue to refute allegations that the 
party intends to merge with President Obasanjo's party, the 
PDP.  A source from Tinubu's camp confirms a deal was in fact 
struck not to contest the presidential election and to throw 
AD support behind Obasanjo.  Two out of Lagos' three national 
senators decamped from AD to PDP long ago, an embarrassment 
the AD has yet to live down. 
12. (C) Had Obasanjo lost the nomination, one Yoruba source 
asserts, AD fully expected former President Ibrahim Babangida 
to have "come straight out to contest" while the Yoruba 
people sat back and "yawned."  In contrast to other pundits' 
views that an upset over Obasanjo at the primary would have 
sent Yoruba youths into fits of violent rage across Lagos, 
the source stated that this would have been unlikely given 
that militant groups such as the O'odua Peoples' Congress 
(OPC) had not been mobilized.  "If (former Vice President 
Alex) Ekwueme had won," he argues, "part of us would have 
been relieved.  'OK, let (the Igbo) have their turn,' we 
would have said.  'Then, in 2007 we can go for president or 
VP.'  Now, we will have to wait years before it will again be 
our turn." 
 
 
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OLD BOYS' POLYARCHY MIXED WITH HOMEGROWN POLITICS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
13. (C)  COMMENT.  Although the vote was conducted openly, 
the violence accompanying the Lagos senatorial west contest 
reveals cracks in the legitimacy of the AD selection process. 
 Much of the negotiating in AD politics appears to take place 
between the eight or nine "wise men" of the party, while the 
details are worked out between contenders in the form of cash 
pay-offs or other political concessions.  AD issued a 
statement that the challengers' nomination fees would be 
refunded.  Disqualified challenger Onitiri protested the 
screening committee's disqualification of himself and Olowu, 
claiming that his tax certificate was in fact valid.  "The 
whole arrangement was dictatorial," he later asserted to the 
to AD's South-West zonal appeal panel in Oshogbo.   Echoing 
Alex Ekwueme's denunciation of the PDP convention, Onitiri 
called the Lagos AD convention a "charade." 
 
 
14. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED.  On a more positive note, the 
Lagos AD showed signs of cohesion and political 
sophistication reminiscent of political parties with an 
identifiable grassroots base.  Lagos State House of Assembly 
Speaker Mamora was placed in the Lagos East senatorial 
contest due to AD's expectation of a tough battle in that 
district in the general election, and his colleagues 
supported him.  Instead of the bags of money prominently 
carted around the PDP convention, bags of hats with 
pro-Tinubu and AD propaganda were disbursed amongst the 
delegates.  The voting venues were not grandiose, lavishly 
paid for by the government, but practical locations obtained 
at discounted rates through party contacts.  The party looked 
more like, well, a party.  But this union could be difficult 
to sustain cross-regionally and cross-ethnically.  For now, 
AD officials insist they have the political know-how to 
overcome national obstacles.  At least Tinubu's acceptance 
speech was able to draw reference to concrete initiatives he 
had conducted during his governorship, including governance 
figures that would warm the heart of any policy wonk. 
 
 
15. (C)  COMMENT CONTINUED.  While the AD took great pains to 
appear to have zen-like consensus behind their candidates, 
fierce competition appeared to take place behind the scenes. 
The facade of complete unity may intimidate candidates of 
other parties, but the AD could be hurting its long-term 
national competitiveness by inhibiting its members' chances 
to practice the art of losing gracefully in public.  This 
political skill will likely prove as vital to the 
sustainability of Nigerian democracy as that of winning 
emphatically. 
HINSON-JONES