US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU175

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000175 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR POL/ERIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2008 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, PINS, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: GOVERNMENT AND MAOISTS DECLARE CEASE-FIRE, 
NEGOTIATOIONS EXPECTED SOON 
 
REF: A. A. KATHMANDU 154 
 
     B. B. KATHMANDU 169 
     C. C. KATHMANDU 137 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (U) On January 29, the Maoists followed by the Government 
of Nepal (GoN) announced a cease-fire.  The GoN (see 
paragraph 13), in return, agreed to drop the terrorist 
designation placed on the Maoists. In their statement (see 
paragraph 12), the Maoists reiterated their demands for a 
round table conference, interim government, and a 
constitutional assembly.  Dates and venue for impending 
negotiations have not yet been established.  The political 
parties are cautiously optimistic but are still establishing 
strategies in the wake of the announcement.  How the 
ceasefire may affect security forces operations and the 
general strike previously announced by the Maoists for 
February 13-14 remains unclear.  End Summary. 
 
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Cease-fire Announced 
--------------------- 
 
2. (U) At 18:00 on January 29, the Maoists issued a press 
release declaring a cease-fire (Ref B).  The Government of 
Nepal (GoN) followed with its own announcement a few hours 
subsequently.  The Maoist press statement (Paragraph 12) 
states that the GoN had met the minimum conditions for 
talks--removal of the terrorist designation, withdrawal of 
the INTERPOL warrants, removal of bounties on the Maoist 
leadership, and declaration of a cease-fire--but did not 
identify commitments the Maoists made to the government.  The 
release also called upon the party's membership to work in 
accordance with the declared cease-fire and mobilize in 
support of its minimum demands:  a round table conference, an 
interim government, and a constitutional assembly. 
 
3. (SBU) Neither the GoN or the Maoists have agreed to a date 
or venue for negotiations.  According to press sources, the 
Maoists have formed a three member negotiating team, 
including top idealogue Baburam Bhattarai, Krishna Bahadur 
Mahara (who had headed the Maoists' previous negotating 
team), and Dev Gurung.  The GoN's press release designates 
Minister for Works and Physical Planning Narayan Singh Pun to 
serve as the GoN's coordinator for negotiations.  According 
to Assistant Minister for Women, Children and Social Welfare 
Anuradha Koirala, there is no decision on who will lead the 
delegation or its members. 
 
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Getting the Parties Onboard 
---------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) From press reports and Embassy contacts, it appears 
that only the National Democratic Party (RPP) leadership was 
consulted prior to the announced cease-fire.  The local press 
reported that the King held a meeting with RPP leader Surya 
Bahadur Thapa on January 28 to discuss peace talks and 
conditions.  (Comment:  As Prime Minister Chand is a member 
of the RPP, it is likely that Thapa was aware of the 
developments.  It is also unlikely the King felt it necessary 
to call a separate meeting with the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, 
as Deputy Prime Minister Mandal is its leader.  End Comment.) 
 The local press also reported that both Girija Prasad 
Koirala, President of the Nepali Congress Party (NC), and 
Mahdav Kumar Nepal, General Secretary of the Nepal Communist 
Party-United Marxist Leninist (UML), declined to meet with 
the King on January 29. We have been unable to verify this 
report (Ref C). 
 
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Party Perspectives 
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5. (SBU) Nepali Congress (NC):  Narhari Acharya of the NC, a 
member of the GoN's previous negotiating team, told the 
Embassy that while the cease-fire is a positive step and a 
dramatic shift for the Cabinet, but noted it was done without 
consulting the Party.  The lack of transparency on the terms 
and conditions are problematic.  As a former negotiator, 
Acharya feels the terms and conditions should be made public 
so failure can be appropriately assigned. 
6. (U) Nepal Communist Party-United Marxist Leninist (UML): 
According to the Party's headquarters, the UML was not 
consulted prior to the cease-fire announcement.  Despite this 
drawback, the UML hopes the negotiations will be successful. 
In a January 29 statement at the UML's General Convention, 
now being held in Janakpur, UML Leader Nepal stated, "...we 
do not rule out the possibility of constituent assembly as an 
alternative to resolve the current crisis dogging the 
nation."  Support for a constituent assembly is a reversal of 
previous party positions, which called for establishing an 
all-party government under Article 128 of the Constitution. 
 
7. (SBU) Nepal Peasants and Workers Party (NPWP):  Least 
optimistic of all the major party spokesmen, the NPWP 
President Narayan Man Bijuchhe predicts that the talks will 
bog down and fail.  Further, he believes that the call for 
talks is a ruse by the Maoists and/or the government to stage 
for future attacks.  Should the talks be successful and a 
constituent assembly be held, he stated that the Maoists can 
be expected to serve the Indian agenda as a means of thanking 
them for providing years of safehaven. 
 
8. (SBU) People's Front Nepal (PFN):  Amik Sherchan, 
President of the PFN, took the cease-fire announcement 
positively, as it has opened the door for talks.  However, he 
too went on to complain that the government did not consult 
the political parties regarding this matter.  It is his 
belief that the opportunity for a peaceful resolution to the 
conflict may be squandered if the government continues to 
sideline the political parties.  Serchan stressed that it 
would take some time for the Maoists to accept a 
constitutional monarchy.  He raised further concerns about 
Narayan Singh Pun's credentials as the government's 
coordinator; he believes it will only be a matter of time 
before Pun is named the delegation's head. 
 
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Unknown Implications 
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9. (SBU) The GoN is evaluating the full implications of a 
cease-fire. Comments to PolOff by MG Katwal, Co-coordinator 
of the National Security Secretariat, indicate his desire to 
continue security force patrols and presence in the field. He 
confided, however, that a code of conduct has not yet been 
established. MG Katwal could also not determine if the 
cease-fire will mean a withdrawal of the Maoists' February 13 
and 14 general strike. 
 
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The Palace Extends Its Thanks 
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10. (C) The Palace's Press Secretary, Mohan Pandey, called to 
thank the Ambassador for the U.S. Government's support and 
pressure on the Maoists, which he believes played a 
significant role in in influencing Maoist agreement to the 
ceasefire. 
 
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Comment 
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11. (C) The political parties' initial comments--cautious 
optimism laced with criticism--indicate that they may be 
trying to hedge their bets in the face of uncertain outcomes. 
 The parties, which already fear being marginalized, will 
likely press for greater "transparency" in dialogue efforts 
as a way to keep open opportunities to comment on the process 
without having to take responsibility for its success or 
failure.  The GON realizes the importance of multi-partisan 
support for this initiative (Refs A and B); failure to get 
the parties on board will only leave the Maoists a possible 
"out" to renege on any commitments made through negotiations. 
 Party strategies will become clearer after the release of 
public statements expected in the next few days.  End Comment. 
 
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Maoist Press Statement 
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12. (U) Begin Translation: 
It is well understood that our party is always ready for the 
positive and progressive solution to the present civil war in 
the country. We have been publicizing our minimum conditions 
to make an environment for the talks. In this connection, 
yesterday we were informed about the Government's decision 
that to start the peace talks the previous government's 
decision of declaring the Maoists as terrorists has been 
revoked, the red corner notices issued against the Maoist's 
leaders has been withdrawn, the government's decision of 
fixing price tags on the heads of top Maoist leaders has been 
withdrawn, and the decision for a cease-fire has been made. 
This decision of the ruling party is taken positively by our 
party and through this press release we declare a cease-fire 
and willingly participate in the peace talks process. Like 
always, the party appeals to the entire revolutionary 
warriors of the liberation army, authorities of the people's 
power, and the general public to work according to the 
declaration. The party also appeals for the continuation of 
the organizational and peaceful mobilization to move forward 
in favor of general policy of the party and minimum working 
plan--round table conference, interim government, and 
constitutional assembly. 
Date: 29 Jan 2003 
Prachanda 
Central Committee 
NCP (Maoist) 
End Translation. 
 
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Government Press Statement 
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13. (U) Begin Translation: 
A) His Majesty's Government has the policy to resolve the 
Maoist problem through talks, and the CPN (Maoist) has also 
taken initiative in this regard, and since both the sides 
have reached an understanding for a cease-fire, the earlier 
deicision of labeling the CPN (Maoists) as terrorists, red 
corner notice to arrest them, and cash rewaqrds to anyone 
informing or helping in arresting the Maoist leaders, as 
called by some quarters as "prices on their heads" have been 
scrapped. 
B) To create an atmosphere for the political solution of the 
problem, Mr. Narayan Singh Pun has been designated as the 
coordinator. 
Cabinet Secretariat 
January 29, 2003 
End Translation. 
MALINOWSKI