US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO170

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000170 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, SA/PD, NEA/NGA, DS/DSS/ITA, 
INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL: 01-29-13 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, ASEC, ECON, CE, MV, IZ 
SUBJECT:  GSL issues constructive statement re Iraq, as 
Gulf situation nets increasing attention 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 281221Z Jan 03 
 
-      (B) 02 Colombo 1879, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The Sri Lankan government issued a 
constructive statement on January 28, calling on Iraq to 
comply fully with UNSC Resolution 1441.  The statement 
comes as the situation in the Gulf region nets increased 
press and public attention here.  There is some concern 
bubbling up that a possible war could cause oil 
shortages and a collapse in remittances from overseas 
workers.  There is also some worry that a war could 
eclipse the good news re Sri Lanka's peace process.  So 
far, efforts by anti-U.S. elements to mobilize have been 
halting.  Despite the recent spurt in interest, Sri 
Lankans seem preoccupied with their very delicate peace 
process and Iraq does not appear destined to become a 
major issue.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------- 
Constructive GSL Statement 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) The Sri Lankan Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
issued the following public statement re the Iraq 
situation on January 28: 
 
Begin text: 
 
"The Government of Sri Lanka has studied the reports 
submitted by the UN Weapons Inspection Team to the UN 
Security Council on 27th January 2003.  The Government 
takes note of the statement by the Chief UN Weapons 
Inspector that while Iraq is cooperating in the 
inspection process, further vital questions remain 
unanswered and that, therefore, there has not been full 
compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1441. 
The Government of Sri Lanka, therefore, requests Iraq to 
fully comply with the resolution.  Given the human 
political and economic consequences of military 
intervention, the Government calls for intensified and 
early completion of ongoing UN and other diplomatic 
efforts to ensure a peaceful resolution of the 
question." 
 
End text. 
 
3.  (C) In Mission's assessment, the GSL's statement was 
constructive in noting that Iraq was not in "full 
compliance" with UNSC Resolution 1441 and calling for it 
to comply fully.  It was also positive in our estimation 
that the statement in effect underscored that the GSL 
did not want this matter to be dragged out.  Instead, 
the statement stressed that there should be "intensified 
and early completion" of "UN and other diplomatic 
efforts" so as to "ensure a peaceful resolution of the 
question." 
 
------------------- 
Moragoda's Key Role 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Senior Minister Milinda Moragoda -- who played a 
major role in crafting the statement --  told DCM early 
January 28 that he wanted it to be helpful to the U.S. 
Moragoda said he had carefully vetted the language with 
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe.  Wickremesinghe had 
approved it, underlining that he wanted the GSL to be on 
the record as "broadly supportive" of the U.S. position 
on this issue before President Bush gave his "State of 
the Union" address later that day.  That way, 
Wickremesinghe told Moragoda, the government would be 
insulated from charges that it was pressured to support 
the U.S. on this matter due to the President's speech. 
5.  (C) During his conversation with the DCM, Moragoda 
also indicated that "one minister" was causing problems 
re the statement.  Moragoda did not name this minister, 
but he indicated that this person thought the GSL 
statement leaned too much toward the U.S. position. 
Mission is not sure which minister Moragoda was 
referring to.  Our guess, however, is that he was 
fingering Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando or perhaps 
one of the four Muslim ministers in the cabinet. 
Fernando, in particular, could be the culprit to the 
extent that he appears to have bought into the MFA's 
long-standing "G-77," NAM-infected perspectives. 
Specifically re Iraq, Fernando was in the UAE recently 
and while there was quoted as noting "his fear over the 
consequences a war would have on the entire world." 
Fernando has made similar statements regarding Iraq that 
are seemingly focused more on the dangers of a possible 
war, as opposed to the greater danger of Iraqi non- 
compliance. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Iraq issue Bubbles to the Surface 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The GSL's statement comes as the situation in 
the Gulf region nets increased press and public 
attention here.  The press play has been creeping onto 
the front pages of newspapers and to the top of evening 
TV newscasts.  Most of the reporting has been fairly 
straightforward and balanced, factually reviewing the UN 
inspections and the discussions in New York.  Of late, 
there has also been more editorial and op-ed comment. 
THE ISLAND, one of the three major English-language 
newspapers, for example, carried an editorial recently 
calling on the U.S. not to go to war with Iraq.  The 
editorial was relatively balanced and was not caustic. 
In terms of the op-ed's, most have decried U.S. policy. 
As is common with international issues here, most of 
these op-ed's were plucked from foreign (and left- 
leaning) sources, such as the GUARDIAN newspaper in the 
UK and ASIA TIMES.  There has also been a clutch of 
op-ed's attacking U.S. policy written by Sri Lankans, 
but not many. 
 
----------------- 
Economic Concerns 
----------------- 
 
7.  (C) In discussions with contacts, there are also 
some Sri Lanka-specific concerns, which basically 
revolve around the potential harm that could be done to 
the country's economy by a possible war.  The issues 
most often flagged re the economy include: 
 
-- Oil:  According to reports, Sri Lanka only has 30 
days of petroleum in reserve.  The worry is that a war 
could cause a huge spike in prices that would disrupt 
the country's economy. 
 
-- Budget:  The GSL based its 2003 budget on a price of 
USD 20 per barrel of petrol.  A surge in the price -- 
which has already occurred to some extent -- would cause 
serious budgetary dislocations. 
 
-- Overseas Workers:  There are over 700,000 Sri Lankan 
nationals working in the Middle East, and a war could 
mean that some might lose their jobs and have to stream 
home.  Remittances are important to the economy and Sri 
Lanka might lose some of that income, in addition to 
having new unemployed workers to deal with. 
 
-- Tea:  Over 54 percent of Sri Lanka's tea exports go 
the Middle East, including a small amount to Iraq via 
the UN's oil-for-food program.  There is fear that this 
important market for a key export industry could be 
disrupted. 
(((Note:  The primary concern in the Maldives re a 
possible war is also economic in thrust.  GoRM 
interlocutors have told us that they worry that the 
country's tourist industry, a key source of income, 
would be negatively affected, as happened in the 
aftermath of September 11, 2001.  In addition, the 
Maldives was largely shunned by tourists during the 1991 
Gulf War.))) 
 
-------------------------- 
Worry about being Eclipsed 
-------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Another concern, though it is a bit inchoate, is 
that a possible war could eclipse Sri Lanka's brief role 
in the international limelight.  Making this point, 
Jehan Perera, the head of the National Peace Council, a 
local NGO, told us that Sri Lankans for many years had 
gotten used to being ignored by the international 
community, save for the attention paid to Tamil Tiger 
terrorist attacks.  The situation had changed with the 
advent of the peace process, as Sri Lanka began to 
receive positive press coverage and attention from 
important governments for the first time in years.  A 
war in the Middle East would probably put Sri Lanka on 
the backburner again.  Moreover, Perera remarked, a war 
could hurt by allowing the LTTE and elements in the 
south to take steps against the peace process out of the 
belief that there is no longer international scrutiny. 
Another variant on this overall point is that the 
aftermath of a war in Iraq could absorb huge amounts of 
development assistance funds that might otherwise be 
focused on Sri Lanka. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Anti-U.S. Elements try to Mobilize 
---------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) So far, efforts by anti-U.S. elements to 
mobilize against a possible war have been halting.  As 
reported in Ref B, there have been some anti-peace 
process rallies in Colombo and elsewhere in which vague 
sounds have also been made against U.S. Iraq policy.  In 
general, the rallies against the peace process have not 
been particularly well-attended and the addition of the 
Iraq element has not appeared to increase their drawing 
power. 
 
10.  (C) Two groups that have made opposition to U.S. 
Iraq policy part of their political planks include the 
Sinhalese extremist Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) 
party and the small network of Muslim extremists. 
(Note:  Muslims are roughly 8 percent or so of the 
population.)  Kethesh Loganathan, an analyst at the 
Center for Policy Alternatives, a local think-tank, told 
us that he did not think the JVP or the Muslims could 
make a big play out of Iraq "unless a war turned out to 
be longer and bloodier" than expected.  With respect to 
the major parties, Loganathan commented that some 
governing United National Front MP's, especially those 
that are affiliated with the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, 
might make noises against the war.  The same is true 
with some MPs in the president's People's Alliance. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
11.  (C) Despite the recent spurt in interest, Sri 
Lankans seem preoccupied with their very delicate peace 
process and Iraq does not appear destined to become a 
major issue here.  If a possible war is longer and 
bloodier than expected, the situation could change, 
however; in particular, the Muslim population might take 
umbrage toward the U.S.  That said, the Muslim community 
is so split over the peace process and under so much 
pressure from the Tamil Tigers, it is questionable what 
it could do to show its displeasure.  In any case, as 
its public statement made clear, the U.S. has a friend 
in the Sri Lankan government.  We are quite certain the 
GSL will try to be helpful to the U.S. in the coming 
weeks and months to the full extent it can do so.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
12.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS