US embassy cable - 03ANKARA674

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLAD AND J-5 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, TU 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CHP VIEWS ON IRAQ: DON'T COUNT ON US 
 
 
REF: A. 02 ANKARA 9132 
     B. ANKARA 0549 
 
 
(U) Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons: 1.5 
(b)(d) 
 
 
1. (C) From Jan. 11 through 27, we canvassed half a dozen 
senior officials and M.P.s from the opposition Republican 
People's Party (CHP) on Iraq.  As the party of Ataturk and 
standard bearer of the Establishment, CHP reflects a Kemalist 
line on domestic and foreign policy matters.  CHP views on 
Iraq mirror those staked out publicly and privately by CHP 
leader Deniz Baykal (ref A). 
 
 
-- While professing their distaste for Saddam, CHPers oppose 
a war in Iraq and want an undefined "peaceful solution" to 
the crisis. 
 
 
-- CHP has no real policy of its own for the region, and is 
waiting for the AK Party/Government to commit itself on Iraq 
before launching its own political counteroffensive. 
According to CHP M.P. and former Interior Minister Hasan 
Fehmi Gunes, as of Jan. 16, there had been absolutely no 
formal discussion about Iraq at any level of the party 
hierarchy.  CHP M.P. Mesut Deger told us Jan. 27 -- four days 
before the key end-of-the-month National Security Council 
(NSC) meeting -- that the party had finally accepted the need 
to begin seriously considering the situation. 
 
 
-- CHPers -- from Vice Chairman Esref Erdem to Foreign 
Relations Committee member Emin Koc -- tell us that they will 
not back the deployment or transiting of US troops through 
Turkey if/when the matter comes before Parliament for a vote, 
and that the USG should keep this in mind when making policy. 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
Comment: "It's the State, Stupid" 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) CHP's views partly reflect the concerns about negative 
public opinion shared by the ruling AK Party.  They also echo 
the anxieties of a Kemalist State apparatus habitually 
suspicious about USG activities in the region -- as evidenced 
in part by leaks to the press last week alleging USG-PKK 
cooperation against Turkey (ref B).  One CHP official 
suggested to us Jan. 27 that, regardless of how Turkey's Iraq 
policy eventually plays out, the State Establishment -- 
distinct from and superior to the elected government -- will 
be the ultimate arbiter.  "The USG," he asserted with some 
vigor, "needs to understand that it is the State, not the AK 
Government, that is important right now." 
PEARSON