US embassy cable - 03ANKARA535

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000535 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2003 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU 
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES ERDOGAN NO LONGER AK 
PARTY (AKP) CHAIRMAN; EXPECTED TO BE RE-ELECTED 
 
 
(U) Classified by polcounselor John Kunstadter; reasons: 1.5 
(b,d). 
 
 
1. (U) Turkish Constitutional Court's 6-5 retroactive ruling 
that AK Party (AKP) chairman Erdogan lost his chairmanship 
when he was forced to resign as a founding member in October 
throws another temporary barrier in Erdogan's path to the 
Prime Ministership.  At the same time we understand from the 
comments of a member of the Court that the ruling removes the 
grounds on which the chief prosecutor had opened a case to 
close AK. 
 
 
2. (U) From the public statements of Constitutional Court 
justice Kilic and public commentary by legal experts, we 
understand that: 
 
 
--AK's founders' council has ten days to meet and elect an 
acting chairman; Erdogan is eligible to be elected; 
 
 
--Once an acting chairman is elected, AK has 45 days in which 
to call a party congress to elect a new chairman; Erdogan is 
eligible to be elected. 
 
 
3. (C) We expect AK to elect Erdogan as acting chairman and 
to re-elect him as chairman.  At the same time, the 
continuing efforts of elements of the State to keep Erdogan 
in limbo is causing contacts from across the spectrum to 
begin to doubt that Erdogan will ever assume power 
unencumbered.  The ruling is also generating more speculation 
among AK's opposition in and out of parliament that the modus 
vivendi between Erdogan and P.M. Gul, already under strain, 
is breaking down. 
 
 
4. (U) The ruling leaves open the theoretical possibility 
that (a) a suit could be filed to declare the Nov. 2002 
general elections void because Erdogan was listed as chairman 
on the ballots; or (b) that a suit could be filed to 
challenge any AK decision bearing Erdogan's signature as 
chairman after he gave up his founding member status October 
17. 
 
 
5. (C) Comment: However the technicalities play out, this 
ruling creates further uncertainty about Erdogan's course to 
the Prime Ministership.  We expect AKP, and therefore the AK 
government, to be even more preoccupied with the balance of 
power within AKP and between the AK government and the State. 
 This will have a dragging effect on an already-burdened 
decision-making process on foreign policy questions of direct 
concern to the U.S. 
PEARSON