US embassy cable - 92SEOUL4375

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SEOUL 04375 
 
 
CINCPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, KS, KN 
SUBJECT:  KIM IL SUNG'S BIRTHDAY AND NEW TITLES FOR FATHER 
AND SON: THOUGHTS IN THE SOUTH 
 
REF:  SEOUL 3952 
 
1.  C - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY: WITH N/S NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUING OVER 
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE N/S BASIC AGREEMENT AND THE 
NON-NUCLEAR ACCORD, KIM IL SUNG'S APRIL 15 BIRTHDAY BASH, 
KIM'S NEW TITLE OF GENERALISSIMO, AND KIM JONG IL'S 
ELEVATION TO MARSHAL HAVE GENERATED ONLY MODEST PUBLIC 
INTEREST IN THE SOUTH.  NORTH KOREA WATCHERS BELIEVE THE 
NEW TITLES CONFIRM EARLIER INDICATIONS THAT KIM SENIOR 
WILL NOT RETIRE, BUT THAT AT THE SAME TIME KIM JUNIOR WILL 
TAKE ON EVER GREATER RESPONSIBILITIES.  MOST OBSERVERS 
BELIEVE THE NORTH'S POLICY LINE TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL 
REMAIN UNCHANGED.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NEW TITLES 
---------- 
3.  IN HONOR OF HIS 80TH BIRTHDAY ON APRIL 15 THE TITLE OF 
GENERALISSIMO (DAEWONSU) WAS CONFERRED UPON KIM IL SUNG. 
ON APRIL 20, THE DPRK ANNOUNCED THAT THE NORTH KOREAN 
WORKERS PARTY HAD CONFERRED THE TITLE OF MARSHAL (WONSU) 
ON KIM JONG IL AND O CHIN-U, MINISTER OF THE PEOPLE'S 
ARMED FORCES.  ACCORDING TO JAPANESE PRESS REPORTS, KIM 
JONG IL ALSO MET WITH MEMBERS OF THE JAPANESE DELEGATION 
WHO ATTENDED KIM SENIOR'S BIRTHDAY CELEBRATION.  WHILE KIM 
JONG IL HAS MET FOREIGNERS IN THE PAST, THE OCCASIONS HAVE 
BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. 
 
"PROMOTIONS" NOT UNEXPECTED 
--------------------------- 
4.  MOST NORTH KOREA OBSERVERS IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED SOME 
CHANGES AROUND KIM IL SUNG'S BIRTHDAY.  DR. KIL JEONG WOO 
OF THE RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL UNIFICATION TOLD 
POLOFF APRIL 20 THAT AT HIS BIRTHDAY CELEBRATION KIM 
SENIOR OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED HIS SON AS HIS SUCCESSOR 
(SOMETHING HE HAD NEVER DONE BEFORE) AND MADE THE OCCASION 
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR KIM JONG IL'S "COMING OUT," I.E., WAS 
INTRODUCED BY HIS FATHER AND MET WITH SOME FOREIGN 
VISITORS. 
 
5.  KIL OBSERVED THAT IT WAS LOGICAL FOR KIM JONG IL TO 
BECOME MARSHAL ONCE HIS FATHER HAD BECOME GENERALISSIMO. 
ACCORDING TO KIL, THE TITLE OF MARSHAL IS HONORARY AND 
POLITICAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT CARRY GREAT MILITARY 
SIGNIFICANCE, ESPECIALLY SINCE KIM JUNIOR WAS MADE SUPREME 
COMMANDER LAST DECEMBER.  KIL SUGGESTED THAT THE CONFERAL 
OF THE NEW TITLE SYMBOLICALLY FORMALIZES KIM JUNIOR'S 
INHERITANCE OF HIS FATHER'S POSITION WITHOUT HAVING HIM 
TAKE OVER.  KIM IL SUNG STILL HAS THE TITLES OF PRESIDENT 
AND GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE KOREAN WORKERS PARTY (AND NOW 
GENERALISSIMO).  KIL SAID THAT KIM JUNIOR IS RUNNING THE 
DAY-TO-DAY AFFAIRS OF THE COUNTRY AND PROBABLY PLAYS AN 
IMPORTANT ROLE IN FORMULATING FOREIGN POLICY.  IT WOULD 
SEND THE WRONG SIGNALS, ACCORDING TO KIM'S ANALYSIS, FOR 
KIM JONG IL TO TAKE OVER HIS FATHER'S ROLE COMPLETELY 
DURING SUCH AN UNCERTAIN PERIOD FOR THE NORTH. 
 
6.  MOFA INTER-KOREA POLICY DIVISION DEPUTY DIRECTOR NAM 
SANG-JUNG GAVE POLOFF A SIMILAR INTERPRETATION ON APRIL 
22.  NAM SAID THAT KIM IL SUNG NOW "LEADS AND REIGNS" OVER 
NORTH KOREA, WHILE KIM JONG IL "CONTROLS AND RUNS" THE 
COUNTRY.  HE, HOWEVER, CITED THE PROMOTION OF O CHIN-U TO 
MARSHAL ALONG WITH KIM JONG IL AS UNEXPECTED.  HE 
EXPLAINED THAT O'S PROMOTION MIGHT SERVE TWO PURPOSES. 
FIRST, NAM EXPLAINED, THE NORTH CAN NOW ARGUE THAT THE 
SUCCESSION WAS NOT DYNASTIC SINCE O AND KIM JUNIOR SHARE 
THE SAME TITLE.  SECOND, THE PROMOTION OF O COVERS KIM 
JONG IL'S WEAK MILITARY FLANK BECAUSE O PRESUMABLY ENJOYS 
STRONG SUPPORT AMONG MILITARY LEADERS. 
 
NO EFFECT ON NORTH/SOUTH DIALOGUE 
--------------------------------- 
7.  KIL, NAM, AND OTHERS WE HAVE TALKED TO DOUBT THAT THE 
TITLE CHANGES IN THE NORTH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT 
NORTH/SOUTH DIALOGUE.  BOTH EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT HAVING 
SIGNED THE IAEA SAFEGUARDS AGREEMENT AND THE TWO 
NORTH/SOUTH AGREEMENTS, THE DPRK WILL PRESS FOR BETTER 
RELATIONS WITH THE U.S., JAPAN, AND OTHER COUNTRIES, AT 
THE SAME TIME STRINGING OUT IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 
AGREEMENTS. 
 
SOUTH KOREAN PERCEPTIONS OF THE NORTH UNCHANGED 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
8.  KIM IL SUNG'S BIRTHDAY BASH GENERATED ONLY MODEST 
PUBLIC INTEREST IN THE SOUTH.  THE KIMS STILL RULE THE 
DPRK, AND NEGOTIATIONS ON IMPLEMENTATION OF N/S DIALOGUE 
AGREEMENTS HAVE YET TO ACHIEVE TANGIBLE RESULTS.  WITH THE 
BIRTHDAY SPOTLIGHT ON THE "GREAT LEADER," SOUTH KOREANS 
WERE REMINDED OF KIM IL SUNG'S PERSONAL ROLE AS THE MAIN 
OBSTACLE TO PROGRESS TOWARD REUNIFICATION. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
9.  FROM ALL INDICATIONS, THE SUCCESSION PROCESS IS 
UNDERWAY.  KIM JONG IL RUNS THE COUNTRY ON A DAY TO DAY 
BASIS.  KIM SENIOR, HOWEVER, RETAINS HIS POWER AS THE 
SUPREME FIGURE IN THE NORTH.  HE WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD 
MAINTAIN HIS TITULAR SUPERIORITY WELL INTO THE PERIOD 
AHEAD. 
 
 
GREGG