US embassy cable - 03KUWAIT115

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000115 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/NGA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IZ, IR, KU 
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD ON HIS MIND: GOK'S PRE-OCCUPATION WITH IRAQ 
 
 
Classified By: Richard H. Jones for Reason 1.5 D. 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: During a recent meeting with a visiting 
delegation led by former US senior diplomat Frank Wisner, 
Kuwait's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Shaykh Dr. 
Mohammed Al-Sabah shared candid views on pressing priorities 
for his government.  Discussion centered on four main themes: 
Saddam Hussein's removal; visions for a new Iraq; America's 
interest and image in the region; and the role Arab states 
should assume at this time.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) On January 11, 2003, Dr. Mohammed met with Ambassador 
Wisner's four-member non-governmental delegation, which was 
in Kuwait to lead a seminar on economic reform organized by 
the Embassy and hosted by the Kuwait Chamber of Commerce and 
Industry (septel).  Ambassador Wisner, a former Under 
Secretary of Defense for Policy and of State for 
 
SIPDIS 
International Security Affairs, was joined by Henry Siegman, 
Director and Senior Fellow of the US/Middle East Project at 
the Council on Foreign Relations (which commissioned the 
study from which the seminar was based); Dr. Bernard Hoekman, 
Research Manager of the International Trade Group at the 
World Bank (who co-wrote the study); and Fouad Makzoumi, a 
Lebanese businessman and Chairman of the Future Pipe Group 
(who sponsored the study).  Also attending the meeting with 
Dr. Mohammed were Ambassador Jones and Econoff (notetaker). 
 
 
3. (C) SADDAM MUST GO:  Asked how the United States should 
understand Kuwaiti needs, Dr. Mohammed was blunt and explicit 
in his response.  In the short term, he said, Saddam must 
exit the scene.  In his view, the Iraqi leader was a pariah 
who had committed sacrileges that placed him beyond 
redemption or rehabilitation.  Dr. Mohammed said consensus 
among Gulf leaders was that Saddam is a compulsive liar who 
cannot be trusted and a dangerous man who has brought great 
instability to the region. 
 
4. (C) Dr. Mohammed was doubtful regarding the possibility of 
resolving the present standoff without military conflict.  He 
acknowledged that providing Saddam exile had become a hot 
topic of discussion throughout the Arab world, with much 
press speculation that both Arab and non-Arab envoys were 
visiting Baghdad to offer him safe passage.  Dr. Mohammed 
predicted that these invitations would increase in the coming 
weeks but that the Iraqi leader would  ultimately spurn them 
all.  "Saddam invented the concept of the human shield," the 
Kuwaiti  minister said, "so I would be surprised to see him 
exit before many Iraqis are sacrificed." 
 
5. (C) Dr. Mohammed did not expect many negative reactions 
toward the United States should it use military force against 
Iraq.  On the contrary, he said, expectations in the region 
were that the "nightmare" would soon be over.  The mood in 
Kuwait was upbeat, he added, noting that the stock market was 
"going through the roof" in anticipation that Iraq soon would 
be opening again for business. 
 
6. (C) BUILDING A NEW IRAQ:  Ambassador Wisner told Dr. 
Mohammed that in his view there would be violent 
confrontation in Iraq, followed by a period of chaos and 
uncertainty.  Even if Saddam were to leave peacefully, he 
said, the United States would still require certain criteria 
be met in the formation of a new Iraq.  These conditions 
included that Iraq become peaceful and friendly with its 
neighbors and that weapons of mass destruction be accounted 
for and destroyed.  Dr. Mohammed agreed that Saddam's removal 
was necessary but not sufficient.  He said that in the long 
term there needed to be a more stable, democratic Iraq, and 
the question now was how to achieve this outcome. 
 
7. (C) The Kuwaiti minister observed that Iraq was in essence 
a failed state, which had become partitioned and was not 
likely to be reconstructed in its present configuration.  He 
added that another "strongman" leader, such as Saddam, was 
not apt to succeed, and what the country needed now was a 
completely different direction.  Ambassador Wisner agreed, 
stating that a new Iraq should be reconstructed as a 
confederation, with a center shared between the major ethnic 
and religious groups.  He outlined three stages for 
development: 1) "early," in which order is re-established; 2) 
"transitional," in which key Iraqis are consulted and 
advised; and 3) "permanent," in which Iraq begins attending 
again to its own affairs. 
 
8. (C) Dr. Mohammed asked what role in this reconstruction 
process the USG sees for the Iraqi opposition groups. 
Ambassador Wisner replied emphatically that there is no 
government in exile waiting to rule Iraq and that no external 
entity, such as the Iraqi National Congress, would 
exclusively run the country.  He said that post-Saddam Iraq 
will require a combination of outside actors and individuals 
presently inside the country, including figures from the 
military once it has been cleansed of its subversive Baathist 
elements.  Ambassador Jones added that the USG has resisted 
the opportunity to name a government-in-exile, as the INC had 
hoped, believing it would become the de-facto government in a 
new Iraq. 
 
9. (C) EYE ON AMERICA: Dr. Mohammed said one critical concern 
within the Arab world, including the Gulf states, is that 
America will overreach in its strategy toward Iraq.  He said 
many people in the region are drawing parallels between the 
United States now and the old European imperialist powers. 
They fear that America sees its role as carrying a "White 
Man's Burden," marching into the region "to civilize the 
savages and teach the lesser breeds the virtues of 
self-rule."  Many see in the USG's policy toward Iraq an 
intention of molding the region in America's own image.  More 
conservative elements are characterizing this development as 
a clash with Islam, and the Western press is only serving to 
fuel the debate. 
 
10. (C) Ambassador Wisner assured Dr. Mohammed that the USG 
is not on an imperialistic crusade but rather on a mission to 
bring lasting peace and stability to Iraq and the region.  He 
added that there is wide debate in the United States over the 
shape of a new Iraq, which is being driven by the 
practicalities of bringing about this change.  When Dr. 
Mohammed suggested that the next step in this process must 
include a review of US-Iran relations, Ambassador Wisner 
agreed that this was both advisable and necessary.  He added 
that the US is working on finding the best way to talk to the 
Iranians, which is never an easy task.  (NOTE: Dr. Mohammed 
was proud to convey that Kuwait's Foreign Minister Shaykh 
Sabah Al-Ahmad was that day visiting Iran, after Iraq's 
Foreign Minister had been refused in Tehran.  Local press 
reported January 14 that Kuwait and Iran issued a joint 
communique on their intention to strengthen ties in several 
areas, including security, defense, and economic cooperation 
(septel).  END NOTE.) 
 
11. (C) ARAB OPPORTUNITIES: Ambassador Wisner stressed that 
now more than ever it is vital for Washington and the West to 
hear from Kuwait and other Arab states about their vision for 
a new Iraq.  He said now is the moment of opportunity for 
Arab leaders to be heard, and it is important for President 
Bush to receive candid views from friends of the United 
States, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf 
states.  Dr. Mohammed took a long time to reflect after 
Ambassador Wisner commented that "he who is on the side of 
the US now is a friend; he who is against the US will be long 
remembered; and he who is on the side of the US with clear 
advice to offer will be respected." 
 
12. (C) In response to Dr. Mohammed's comment that there can 
be no lasting stability in the region without resolution to 
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Henry Siegman said that if 
this was the consensus among Arab leaders then Washington was 
not hearing this message with the kind of conviction and 
urgency it merits.  He added that Arab leaders now have a 
prime opportunity to bring their concerns to the attention of 
President Bush.  Ambassador Wisner said it was not his 
impression that there was deep dialogue between US and Arab 
leaders on these issues.  He added that it would be unwise 
for Arab leaders to sit on their hands while a new Iraq was 
being constructed around them. 
JONES