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| Identifier: | 92ZAGREB527 |
|---|---|
| Wikileaks: | View 92ZAGREB527 at Wikileaks.org |
| Origin: | Embassy Zagreb |
| Created: | 1992-04-09 12:46:00 |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Tags: | PREL PGOV ECON PGOV ECON PGOV ECON PGOV ECON PGOV ECON PGOV ECON PGOV ECON War Crimes |
| Redacted: | This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks. |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00527 01 OF 07 091302Z
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USIA WASHDC 1377
USDOC WASHDC
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 0300
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 ZAGREB 00527
SIPDIS
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC; VIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSBM
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, PGOV, ECON, PGOV, ECON, PGOV, ECON, PGOV, ECON, PGOV, ECON, PGOV, ECON, War Crimes
SUBJECT: CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND THE U.S.: THE FUTURE
IS NOW
-
1. CONFIDENTIAL--ENTIRE TEXT
SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
------------------------
2. ON THE DAY AFTER U.S. RECOGNITION OF THE
REPUBLICS OF CROATIA AND SLOVENIA, WE BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE HELPFUL TO CATCH OUR BREATH AND TAKE AN
ACCOUNTING OF WHERE WE ARE, HOW WE GOT TO THIS POINT
AND SOME EARLY IMPRESSIONS ON HOW WE SEE OUR
RELATIONS DEVELOPING WITH THESE NEW EUROPEAN
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00527 01 OF 07 091302Z
NATIONS. IN THE CASE OF SLOVENIA, OUR VIEW IS THAT,
WITHOUT STRONG, OUTWARD-LOOKING LEADERSHIP, THE TINY
REPUBLIC COULD CONCEIVABLY FALL OFF THE RADAR SCREEN
(ONCE THE YUGOSLAV CRISIS PASSES WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY
NOT OCCUR ANYTIME SOON). DESTINED TO FALL PREY TO A
GERMAN-AUSTRIAN-ITALIAN SUZERAINTY BY VIRTUE OF ITS
SIZE AND GEOGRAPHY, SLOVENES ARE ALREADY EXPRESSING
PREVIOUSLY INDETECTABLE ANGST OVER DOMINATION BY
THEIR POWERFUL NEIGHBORS. REGRETTABLY, WE CONCLUDE
THAT THIS ECONOMIC TURN OF EVENTS IS UNAVOIDABLE. WE
WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF SLOVENIA TOOK THE LEAD
IN TRYING TO REBUILD YUGOSLAV ECONOMIC LINKAGES.
WITH SLOVENIA NOT POSING A THREAT TO ITS NEIGHBORS,
ITS NASCENT DEMOCRACY NOT AT RISK AND NO HUMAN RIGHTS
PROBLEMS, THE U.S. HAS NO STRATEGIC INTERESTS AT
STAKE.
3. CROATIA, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL REMAIN OF KEEN
INTEREST TO U.S. POLICY-MAKERS. CROATIAN-SERBIAN
RELATIONS COULD WELL BE THE KEY ISSUE IN THE BALKANS
FOR YEARS TO COME. ALWAYS SLOW OFF THE MARK
VIS-A-VIS THE SLOVENES, THE CROATS WERE LESS PREPARED
FOR THIS HISTORIC STEP. ITS DEMOCRACY IS MORE
FRAGILE THAN THAT OF ITS NORTHERN NEIGHBOR, WITH
MAJOR ISSUES OF PRESS FREEDOMS, A FAIR AND IMPARTIAL
LEGAL SYSTEM, AND TROUBLESOME DRIFT OF THE POLITICAL
CENTER OF GRAVITY TO THE RIGHT. CROATIAN PRESIDENT
TUDJMAN, AS THE MAN WHO DELIVERED ON INTERNATIONAL
RECOGNITION, SEEMS A SURE BET FOR A SECOND TERM. HE
WILL FACE THE TOUGH TASK OF DISMANTLING, OR LEAST
DIMINISHING THE IMPACT, OF A SECURITY AND MILITARY
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00527 01 OF 07 091302Z
APPARATUS THAT THREATENS TO STRANGLE EVEN THE RIGHTS
AND PRIVILEGES OF LOYAL CROATS. ACROSS THE SPECTRUM,
CROATS SEE THE U.S. AS HAVING THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON
TUDJMAN AND THE GOVERNMENT. WITH A LARGE, ACTIVE AND
INFLUENTIAL EMIGRE COMMUNITY IN THE U.S. WHICH IS IN
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00527 02 OF 07 091303Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 EB-01 EXIM-06 E-01 FRB-03 HA-09 H-01
INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 ITC-01 JUSE-00 LAB-04 L-03
ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-08 PA-01 PM-01
PRS-01 P-02 SCT-03 SNP-01 SP-01 SSO-00 SS-01
STR-20 TRSE-00 T-01 /098W
------------------252976 091303Z /38
O 091246Z APR 92
FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0710
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMCONSUL MUNICH
RUFHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00527 02 OF 07 091303Z
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USIA WASHDC 1378
USDOC WASHDC
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 0301
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 07 ZAGREB 00527
SIPDIS
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC; VIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSBM
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, YO
SUBJECT: CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND THE U.S.: THE FUTURE
IS NOW
REGULAR AND CONTINUOUS CONTACT WITH PEOPLE OF ALL
WALKS OF LIFE HERE, THE OFFICIAL AND PRIVATE U.S.
ROLE LOOMS LARGE. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.
SLOVENIA: FROM LEADING ROLE TO BIT PLAYER
-----------------------------------------
4. WHEN THE HISTORY OF THE BREAKUP OF YUGOSLAVIA IS
FINALLY WRITTEN, ONE OF THE THE SMALLEST REPUBLICS IN
THE FORMER FEDERATION WILL BE IDENTIFIED AS HAVING
PLAYED THE KEY ROLE IN MOVING YUGOSLAVIA WESTWARD
TOWARD DEMOCRACY, A TREND WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY SET
THE STAGE FOR THE COUNTRY'S DEMISE. WITH ITS
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00527 02 OF 07 091303Z
REPUBLIC-LEVEL ELECTIONS IN 1990, SLOVENIA CONDUCTED
THE FIRST FREE BALLOTING IN YUGOSLAVIA, A WATERSHED
EVENT THAT WOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO CALLS IN THE
OTHER REPUBLICS FOR FREE ELECTIONS. IN A DOGGED AND
DETERMINED FASHION WHICH FLOWS NATURALLY FROM THE
SLOVENE NATIONAL CHARACTER, THE NORTHERN REPUBLIC SET
A COURSE TOWARD DEMOCRACY BUT ALSO AWAY FROM
YUGOSLAVIA AND SIMPLY REFUSED TO BE TURNED AROUND.
5. TO REACH ITS GOAL, SLOVENIA FORGED AN ALLIANCE OF
CONVENIENCE WITH CROATIA TO CHALLENGE A RECALCITRANT,
CENTRALIST FEDERAL SYSTEM. WHETHER THE INTENTION
FROM THE BEGINNING WAS TO BREAK UP YUGOSLAVIA AS IT
THEN EXISTED WILL NEVER BE KNOWN (WE SUSPECT THAT IT
ALWAYS WAS). SLOVENE HISTORY WILL RECALL THAT
BELGRADE WAS NEVER WILLING TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF
RESTRUCTURING YUGOSLAVIA INTO THE MORE DEMOCRATIC,
LOOSE CONFEDERATION OF SOVEREIGN STATES PROPOSED BY
SLOVENIA AND SUPPORTED BY ITS NOMINAL ALLY, CROATIA.
THE HOLLOW TALKS THAT WERE HELD THROUGHOUT THE LATTER
HALF OF 1990 AND THE FIRST HALF OF 1991 BETWEEN THE
SIX REPUBLICS LED INEXORABLY TO WHERE SLOVENIA WANTED
TO BE FROM THE BEGINNING, THE DECLARATION OF AN
INDEPENDENT AND SOVEREIGN REPUBLIC IN JUNE, 1991.
6. ODDLY, SINCE ITS INDEPENDENCE DECLARATION AND
BRIEF WAR OF "LIBERATION", SLOVENIA'S ROLE IN THE
CONTINUING UNRAVELLING OF YUGOSLAVIA HAS DIMINISHED
TO THAT COMMENSURATE WITH ITS SIZE. WITH BROAD
RECOGNITION IN THE BAG, THE SLOVENES' INTEREST IN THE
BRUSSELS PROCESS IS NOW CONFINED TO SUCCESSION STATE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00527 02 OF 07 091303Z
ISSUES.
A FUTURE SHAPED BY GEOGRAPHY
----------------------------
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00527 03 OF 07 091304Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 EB-01 EXIM-06 E-01 FRB-03 HA-09 H-01
INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 ITC-01 JUSE-00 LAB-04 L-03
ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-08 PA-01 PM-01
PRS-01 P-02 SCT-03 SNP-01 SP-01 SSO-00 SS-01
STR-20 TRSE-00 T-01 /098W
------------------252989 091304Z /38
O 091246Z APR 92
FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0711
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMCONSUL MUNICH
RUFHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00527 03 OF 07 091304Z
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USIA WASHDC 1379
USDOC WASHDC
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 0302
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 07 ZAGREB 00527
SIPDIS
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC; VIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSBM
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, YO
SUBJECT: CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND THE U.S.: THE FUTURE
IS NOW
7. ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY STRAPPED IN A POLITICAL
STRAITJACKET AND UNABLE TO BREAK FREE, DEMOCRACY IS
ALIVE AND WELL IN SLOVENIA. AT SOME POINT, A NEW
ELECTION LAW WILL BE PASSED BY THE SLOVENE ASSEMBLY
AND A NEW GOVERNMENT COMMITTED TO DEMOCRATIC
PRINCIPLES AND A MARKET ECONOMY WILL BE SELECTED TO
RUN THE COUNTRY.
-
8. WITH DEMOCRACY ITSELF NOT AT RISK OR ENDANGERED,
SLOVENES ARE OBSESSIVELY CONCERNED WITH WHAT KIND OF
COUNTRY AN INDEPENDENT SLOVENIA WILL BECOME.
DEMONSTRATING AN ANGST NOT PREVIOUSLY NOTICEABLE,
SLOVENE OFFICIALS AND ORDINARY CITIZENS HAVE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00527 03 OF 07 091304Z
EXPRESSED DEEP SUSPICION OF THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF
GERMANY, EVEN NOTING THE SUDDEN INFLUX OF GERMAN
MARKS USED IN THE PURCHASE OF PREVIOUSLY SOCIALLY-
OWNED APARTMENTS.
9. ULTIMATELY SLOVENIA'S DESTINY WILL BE DETERMINED
BY ITS LOCATION. WITH NO HINTERLAND TO SPEAK OF, WE
ENVISION A SLOVENIA THAT WILL OF NECESSITY BECOME
"REGIONALIZED." THE INDUSTRIALIZED NORTH (MARIBOR)
WILL NEED LARGE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS TO MODERNIZE AND
TRANSFORM ITS FACTORIES AND PLANTS. VIRTUALLY A
SUBURB OF AUSTRIA'S SECOND LARGEST CITY (GRAZ),
NORTHERN SLOVENIA, WHICH IS ALREADY SEEKING MORE
LOCAL AUTONOMY FROM A FARAWAY (IN THE SLOVENE
CONTEXT) LJUBLJANA, WILL ALMOST BY INERTIA FALL INTO
THE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN AUSTRIA. TO THE
WEST, PARTICULARLY ISTRIA, ITALY IS KING. SLOVENES
(AND CROATS, TOO) FROM THAT REGION DO NOT HESITATE IN
IDENTIFYING WITH THEIR ITALIAN ROOTS. THIS WEEK,
SLOVENIAN (AND CROATIAN) POLITICAL PARTIES MET WITH
PARTIES FROM ACROSS THE BORDER TO ANNOUNCE THAT THEY
WOULD SEEK TO "REGIONALIZE" THEIR ACTIVITIES AND
PURSUE COMMON POLITICAL GOALS.
10. IF SLOVENIA IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTROL OVER ITS
ECONOMIC DESTINY, RESTORING SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE
YUGOSLAV MARKET WOULD BE THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY.
FROM THE BEGINNING, IDEOLOGY HAS PLAYED LITTLE OR NO
ROLE IN THE DRIVE FOR INDEPENDENCE. ONCE A WAY OUT
OF THE CURRENT POLITICAL AND MILITARY MORASS HAS BEEN
CHARTED, WE COULD ENVISION THE SLOVENES WORKING
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00527 03 OF 07 091304Z
ENERGETICALLY TO RE-ESTABLISH COMMERCIAL TIES WITH
SERBIA AND THE OTHER FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLICS.
UNLIKE CROATIA, THOSE REPUBLICS' ECONOMIES ARE MUCH
MORE COMPLEMENTARY TO, NOT COMPETITIVE WITH, THE
SLOVENE ECONOMY.
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00527 04 OF 07 091305Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 EB-01 EXIM-06 E-01 FRB-03 HA-09 H-01
INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 ITC-01 JUSE-00 LAB-04 L-03
ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-08 PA-01 PM-01
PRS-01 P-02 SCT-03 SNP-01 SP-01 SSO-00 SS-01
STR-20 TRSE-00 T-01 /098W
------------------2529A9 091305Z /38
O 091246Z APR 92
FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0712
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMCONSUL MUNICH
RUFHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00527 04 OF 07 091305Z
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USIA WASHDC 1380
USDOC WASHDC
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 0303
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 07 ZAGREB 00527
SIPDIS
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC; VIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSBM
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, YO
SUBJECT: CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND THE U.S.: THE FUTURE
IS NOW
U.S.-SLOVENE RELATIONS
----------------------
11. AS PRESIDENT KUCAN TOLD THE CG ON APRIL 8 WHEN
HE PRESENTED OUR LETTER OF RECOGNITION, SLOVENIA
EXPECTS TO HAVE THE MOST CORDIAL RELATIONS WITH THE
U.S. FROM THE START. WE SEE NO REASON TO QUESTION
THAT ASSESSMENT. BUT, AGAIN, GIVEN THE NEW
INDEPENDENT COUNTRY'S SIZE AND LOCATION, WE SEE NO
VITAL OR STRATEGIC U.S. INTERESTS. SLOVENIA HAS NO
HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEMS, POSES NO THREAT TO ITS
NEIGHBORS, AND HAS NO LARGE, INFLUENTIAL EMIGRE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00527 04 OF 07 091305Z
COMMUNITY IN THE U.S. ITS DOMESTIC MARKET IS
INHERENTLY SMALL AND MAJOR U.S. INVESTMENT POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED.
12. WITHOUT AN OUTWARD LOOKING LEADER WITH A
EUROPEAN VIEW (E.G., SOMEONE LIKE JANEZ DRNOVSEK, THE
FORMER FEDERAL PRESIDENT), SLOVENIA COULD BECOME AN
INSULAR, INWARD LOOKING COUNTRY, FEARFUL OF THE KIND
OF CHANGE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION THREATENS TO BRING TO
THE TWELVE. BECAUSE OF ITS SIZE, SLOVENE LEADERS,
WITHOUT EXCEPTION, UNDERSTAND FULLY THE LIMITED
INFLUENCE THEY WILL HAVE ON THE IMPORTANT ISSUES OF
THE DAY. BUT, LEFT WITHOUT A LEADER WITH VISION,
SLOVENIA COULD FIND ITSELF MARGINALIZED. THE ODDEST
TWIST OF FATE WOULD BE FOR THE REPUBLIC THAT TOOK THE
FIRST STEP DOWN THE ROAD TO DEMOCRACY AND EUROPE
COULD WELL END UP ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF EUROPE, A
VICTIM OF ITS SIZE AND GEOGRAPHY.
-
CROATIA: A FATE OF ETERNAL STRUGGLE WITH SERBIA
--------------------------------------------- --
13. IN CONTRAST, IF SLOVENIA'S FATE IS ULTIMATELY
TIED TO ITS GEOGRAPHY, THEN CROATIA'S IS CONNECTED TO
ITS HISTORIC ENTANGLEMENT WITH SERBIA, REINFORCED BY
THE VOLATILE ISSUE OF THE STATUS OF CROATIA'S LARGE
SERBIAN MINORITY. CROATIAN-SERBIAN RELATIONS WILL BE
THE KEY ISSUE IN THE BALKANS FOR YEARS TO COME. AND,
AS THE CURRENT TROUBLES IN BOSNIA CLEARLY SHOW, THE
STATE OF THOSE RELATIONS HAS CONSEQUENCES BEYOND THE
BORDERS OF BOTH REPUBLICS.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00527 04 OF 07 091305Z
14. ALWAYS A HALF STEP BEHIND THE SLOVENES, THE
CROATS WERE SLOW OFF THE MARK IN HOLDING THEIR FIRST
FREE ELECTIONS, IN CONDUCTING THEIR INDEPENDENCE
REFERENDUM AND IN DECLARING THEIR INDEPENDENCE.
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00527 05 OF 07 091306Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 EB-01 EXIM-06 E-01 FRB-03 HA-09 H-01
INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 ITC-01 JUSE-00 LAB-04 L-03
ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-08 PA-01 PM-01
PRS-01 P-02 SCT-03 SNP-01 SP-01 SSO-00 SS-01
STR-20 TRSE-00 T-01 /098W
------------------2529BC 091306Z /38
O 091246Z APR 92
FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0713
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMCONSUL MUNICH
RUFHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00527 05 OF 07 091306Z
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USIA WASHDC 1381
USDOC WASHDC
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 0304
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 07 ZAGREB 00527
SIPDIS
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC; VIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSBM
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, YO
SUBJECT: CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND THE U.S.: THE FUTURE
IS NOW
KEENLY AWARE THAT THEIR DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND
SECURITY SITUATION WAS MUCH MORE TROUBLESOME THAN
THEIR NORTHERN NEIGHBOR, CROATIA'A LEADERS
NEVERTHELESS CHARTED A VOLATILE COURSE THAT COMBINED
SHARP ANTI-SERBIAN RHETORIC WITH AN APPARENT FAILURE
TO ANTICIPATE AND ADEQUATELY PREPARE FOR THE (IN THE
VIEW OF CROATS EMPLOYING HINDSIGHT) INEVITABLE
SERBIAN UPRISING. ALTHOUGH GIVEN HIGH MARKS FOR
BRINGING CROATIA INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION, MANY
CROATS OFFER THIS UNPREPAREDNESS AS THE ESSENTIAL
REASON FOR TUDJMAN'S FALLING POPULARITY.
-
THE FRAGILE STATE OF DEMOCRACY
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00527 05 OF 07 091306Z
------------------------------
15. AS WE HAVE BEEN REGULARLY REPORTING, CROATIA'S
SECURITY WOES THREATEN TO UNDERMINE THE SHAKY STATE
OF THE YOUNG DEMOCRACY OF THE REPUBLIC. FIRST, THE
POLITICAL CENTER HAS MOVED DECIDEDLY TO THE RIGHT,
WITH EVEN SOCIALIST AND LIBERAL PARTIES TAKING A HARD
LINE ON REGAINING "LOST" TERRITORY. SECOND,
NEWSPAPERS AND MAGAZINES THAT HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
EXHIBIT ANY DEGREE OF OBJECTIVITY HAVE FOUND
THEMSELVES FACING DECLINING CIRCULATION. THIRD, THE
TELEVISION CHANNELS SPOUT AN UNABASHEDLY
PRO-GOVERNMENT LINE THAT, FRANKLY, MAY HAVE MORE TO
DO WITH HOW THEY VIEW THEIR AUDIENCE THAN ACTUAL
DIRECTIVES FROM THE GOVERNMENT. (NEVERTHELESS, THE
LEADERSHIP OF CROATIAN TV REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE HANDS OF TUDJMAN CRONIES.) FINALLY, MORE AND
MORE WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS THAT EVEN CROATS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SEEK HELP FROM POLICE OFFICIALS WHEN
THEY ARE THE VICTIMS OF ORDINARY CRIMES.
16. IT'S THIS LATTER POINT THAT TROUBLES CROATS THE
MOST. MANY PEOPLE ARE NOT CONVINCED THAT IT WILL BE
EASY TO RETURN CROATIA TO A STATE OF LAW, ORDER AND
RESPECT FOR BASIC CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS. THE
TENTACLES OF A PERVASIVE AND INTRUSIVE SECURITY
APPARATUS UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE FORMER COMMUNIST
SECURITY OFFICIAL AND TUDJMAN ALLY JOSIP MANOLIC
REACHES FAR AND WIDE. IT'S NOT JUST A QUESTION OF
GETTING THE GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE AS MUCH AS IT IS
FINDING A BOTTLE LARGE ENOUGH TO RESTRAIN AND CONTAIN
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00527 05 OF 07 091306Z
THE MONSTER. A SECURITY NETWORK THAT MANY CONSIDERED
TO BE INDISPENSABLE IN TIME OF CONFLICT MAY LIVE ON
LONG AFTER THE CONFLICT ENDS, THREATENING TO STRANGLE
THE VERY DEMOCRACY IT WAS DESIGNED TO PROTECT.
-
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00527 06 OF 07 091307Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 EB-01 EXIM-06 E-01 FRB-03 HA-09 H-01
INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 ITC-01 JUSE-00 LAB-04 L-03
ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-08 PA-01 PM-01
PRS-01 P-02 SCT-03 SNP-01 SP-01 SSO-00 SS-01
STR-20 TRSE-00 T-01 /098W
------------------2529F2 091308Z /38
O 091246Z APR 92
FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0714
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMCONSUL MUNICH
RUFHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00527 06 OF 07 091307Z
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USIA WASHDC 1382
USDOC WASHDC
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 0305
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 07 ZAGREB 00527
SIPDIS
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC; VIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSBM
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, YO
SUBJECT: CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND THE U.S.: THE FUTURE
IS NOW
TUDJMAN: FORWARD TO A DEMOCRATIC FUTURE, WITH A
LITTLE HELP FROM FRIENDS
--------------------------------------------- --------
17. CRITICS OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT--HUMAN RIGHTS
ACTIVISTS, OPPOSITION POLITICAL FIGURES, SERBIAN
LEADERS AND OTHERS--ALL AGREE THAT IN THE SHORT TERM,
ABSENT A DRAMATIC TURN OF EVENTS, PRESIDENT FRANJO
TUDJMAN WILL COMFORTABLY WIN ANOTHER TERM AS
PRESIDENT, WHICH UNDER THE NEW ELECTION LAW WILL BE A
FIVE-YEAR TERM. IN SPITE OF THE CROATIAN PRESIDENT'S
AUTHORITARIAN STYLE OF GOVERNING, MANY SEE HIS
RE-ELECTION AS THE BEST OUTCOME OF AN ELECTION THAT
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00527 06 OF 07 091307Z
COULD MOVE CROATIA DANGEROUSLY TO THE RIGHT. .CALLING
TUDJMAN THE BEST ALTERNATIVE OF A BAD LOT WOULD HAVE
BEEN UNTHINKABLE ONLY MONTHS AGO, BUT SUCH HAS BEEN
THE EFFECT OF THE VIOLENCE AND FIGHTING ON THE
CROATIAN NATION.
18. UNLIKE SLOVENIA, THE INFLUENCE OF THE U.S. IS
TANGIBLE AND PERVASIVE. WITH THOUSANDS OF AMCITS OF
CROATIAN DESCENT ACTIVELY SUPPORTING CROATIAN
INDEPENDENCE AND TRAVELLING BACK AND FORTH, U.S.
INTERESTS CUT ACROSS ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, CULTURAL AND
FAMILY CONNECTIONS. FROM ACROSS THE SPECTRUM IN
CROATIAN SOCIETY, THE WORKING ASSUMPTION IS THAT THE
U.S. WILL INEVITABLY PLAY A LEADING ROLE IN THE
TRANSFORMATION OF THE REPUBLIC. IN OUR OPINION, THAT
IS THE ULTIMATE HOPE OF THOSE WHO DOUBT THE MOTIVES
AND INTENTIONS OF THE TUDJMAN GOVERNMENT.
-
U.S. - CROATIAN RELATIONS
-------------------------
19. EVEN MORE THAN WITH SLOVENIA, CROATS ARE
DEMONSTRABLY MORE RECEPTIVE TO THE BROADEST AND
CLOSEST OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS. FOR THE U.S.,
CROATIA IS OF SIGNIFICANCE ASIDE FROM OUR INTEREST IN
LIMITING THE DANGER OF CONFLICT ARISING FROM
CROATIA'S ENTANGLED RELATIONS WITH SERBIA. WITH A
STRONG, ACTIVE EMIGRE COMMUNITY IN THE U.S., CROATIA
WILL BE A MAJOR TARGET OF U.S. INVESTMENT AND
POLITICAL INTEREST. IT ATTRACTS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF
AMCIT TOURISTS TO ITS RESORTS ALONG THE DALMATIAN
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COAST. PEOPLE TO PEOPLE EXCHANGES WILL BE RESTORED
AND GROW EXPONENTIALLY OVER THE YEARS. ITS LOCATION
AND COASTAL POSITION MEAN CROATIA WILL PLAY SOME ROLE
IN THE GROWTH OF CENTRAL EUROPE.
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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00527 07 OF 07 091307Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 EB-01 EXIM-06 E-01 FRB-03 HA-09 H-01
INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 ITC-01 JUSE-00 LAB-04 L-03
ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-08 PA-01 PM-01
PRS-01 P-02 SCT-03 SNP-01 SP-01 SSO-00 SS-01
STR-20 TRSE-00 T-01 /098W
------------------2529FA 091308Z /38
O 091246Z APR 92
FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0715
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LISBON
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMCONSUL MUNICH
RUFHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00527 07 OF 07 091307Z
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USIA WASHDC 1383
USDOC WASHDC
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 0306
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 07 ZAGREB 00527
SIPDIS
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC; VIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSBM
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, YO
SUBJECT: CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND THE U.S.: THE FUTURE
IS NOW
20. IN SPITE OF ALL OF CROATIA'S INTENTIONS AND
HOPES FOR CLOSE, FRIENDLY TIES, THAT RELATIONSHIP
WILL BE AT TIMES STRAINED BY ALMOST INESCAPABLE HUMAN
RIGHTS PROBLEMS ARISING FROM THE WAR AND OTHER ISSUES
OF DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT. THE EC WILL, OF COURSE,
HAVE A ROLE. BUT POLITICAL LEADERS AND ORDINARY
CITIZENS WILL LOOK TO THE U.S. TO TAKE THE LEAD.
MORE SO THAN THE SLOVENES, THE CROATS SEE THE U.S.
GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE AS THE MODEL THEY WOULD PREFER
TO EMULATE, WITH CERTAIN CROATIAN-INSPIRED
MODIFICATIONS. STRUCTURAL CHANGES ASIDE, THE REAL
TEST OF GOVERNING ULTIMATELY RESTS ON ACTIONS TAKEN.
CROATIA HAS A HARDER ROAD TO TRAVEL THAN SLOVENIA IN
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00527 07 OF 07 091307Z
TERMS OF DEVELOPING A DEMOCRATIC, FREE MARKET
SYSTEM. ITS SUCCESS WILL BE OF GREATER INTEREST, NOT
ONLY TO EUROPE BUT ALSO TO THE U.S. WE COULD HAVE
MAJOR INFLUENCE IN HELPING THEM DO IT RIGHT. EINIK
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