US embassy cable - 03RANGOON48

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
CDR USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2013 
TAGS: PREL, TH, BM 
SUBJECT: THAI MINISTERS POISED TO OVERRUN RANGOON 
 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez.  Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary; At least six Thai ministers and the Chiefs of 
the Thai Armed Services will all parade through Burma during 
January in pursuit of agreements on trade and illegal 
workers, among other issues.  There may also be some action 
on the border in early February between the Burmese and the 
Shan State Army (South). End Summary. 
 
Visits 
 
2. (C) There will be a parade of Thai ministers in Rangoon in 
January.  According to Thai Embassy sources, between January 
17 and January 27, the Thai Ministers of Education, Commerce, 
Labor, and Science and Technology, the Chiefs of the Thai 
Armed Services, and Deputy Prime Ministers Chavalit and Korn 
will all visit Burma.  The Thai Minister of Defense and 
Supreme Commander Surayud may also accompany the two Prime 
Ministers. 
 
History 
 
3. (C) The Education Minister will focus on the treatment of 
Thai/Burmese history in each nation's textbooks.  He 
reportedly led the effort to purge Thai textbooks of a lot of 
their anti-Burmese venom and plans to urge the Burmese to 
take similar steps in regard to the anti-Thai propaganda that 
pollutes many of their history books. 
 
Border Trade 
 
3. (C) The Commerce Minister will try to reach agreement on 
settlement arrangements for border.  The Thai have been 
pushing for some time for an arrangement that would allow the 
settlement of accounts on border trade only once every six 
months, rather than on a transaction-by-transaction basis. 
Normally this would work to Burma's benefit, because it would 
allow Burma to run an automatically financed deficit in its 
trade with Thailand, but. given current Burmese efforts to 
crack down on over- and under-invoicing, and on capital 
flight through trade channels, the proposal had not sparked 
much interest among the Burmese.  The Commerce Minister hoped 
to change this during his visit. 
 
Illegal Workers 
 
4. (C) The Two Deputy Prime Ministers and the Labor Minister 
will focus on illegal Burmese workers in Thailand.  Thailand 
submitted a draft MOU on the repatriation of illegal workers 
to Burma on October 7, but had not received a response. 
Meanwhile, NaSaKa (Burmese border police) officers had begun 
to raise questions about procedures for the return of illegal 
workers.  Basically, NaSaKa wanted to apply the same 
procedures now used on the Bangladeshi border with refugees 
to ensure that all persons who were sent back from Thailand 
really were Burmese citizens.  They also wanted to open only 
one repatriation point (at Myawaddy), rather than the three 
requested by Thailand.  The Thais believed that the Burmese 
procedures were impractical, and hoped to talk them out of 
them during the upcoming meeting.  If they were successful, 
they would sign the MOU on January 27.  If not -- and right 
now that seemed most probable -- then they would talk some 
more. 
 
Insurgents and NGOs 
 
5. (C) On other issues, the Thai Embassy sources said that 
the Royal Thai Army had pushed many of the Shan State 
Army-South's largest armed units into Burma and was now 
waiting for the Burmese to finish them off, probably with an 
attack in early February.  The Thai sources said that the RTA 
would not block the border, but would not allow the SSA units 
to re-enter Thailand armed.  If they fled the Burmese, they 
would have to leave their arms behind.  As for the NGOs on 
the border, Prime Minister Thaksin had ordered that the rules 
and regulations governing their operations be "streamlined" 
and enforced.  This had spooked some of the NGOs and led to 
protests by many of the European embassies in Bangkok. 
However, there was no intent to shut the NGOs down 
completely, the Thai sources said.  The RTG only wished to 
ensure that they operated fully in accordance with the law. 
The Shan Rape Cases 
 
6. (C) The Thai Embassy sources also confirmed that the RTG 
had never raised the Shan rape cases with the GOB.  Asked 
why, given the close ethnic relations between the Thai and 
the Shan (Shan is the Burmese word for Siam), the Thai 
officers said that the RTG had questions about the 
reliability of the NGO reports.  The Thai government knew the 
political background of both the Shan Human Rights Foundation 
and the Shan Women's Action Network and was not prepared to 
rely on their reports on such inflammatory issues.  The only 
statement on the case to date had been made by the Chairman 
of the Thai Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, but he 
had been speaking individually, not on behalf of the RTG. 
 
Comment 
 
7. (C)  The Thais and Burmese are almost a classic case of 
historic enemies trying to feel their way to a new 
relationship, with Thais, at least for the moment, the 
suitors.  Nothing is easy; every issue is emotionally 
fraught.  Nevertheless, the two sides are making progress. 
If they can strike some agreements in January on the 
treatment of history, border trade and/or illegal workers, 
then the next round of talks should be that much easier. 
However, there is a lot of history to overcome and there is 
always the chance that untoward events will derail the entire 
process. End Comment. 
Martinez