US embassy cable - 03ANKARA278

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000278 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR NEA CROCKER, NEA/NGA AND EUR/SE; 
NSC FOR KHALILZAD; 
OSD FOR LUTTI AND HRHODE; 
LONDON FOR GOLDRICH; 
DAMASCUS FOR WALKER 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, TU, IZ, PHUM, PREF, Iraq 
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRAQ: MASOUD BARZANI IN ANKARA: DESPITE 
IMPROVEMENT IN "TONE" OF RELATIONS W/GOT, TURKISH MILITARY 
PRESENCE IN NIRAQ UNACCEPTABLE 
 
 
REF: STATE 8041 
 
 
 (U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch.  Reasons:  1.5 (B and 
D). 
 
 
------------------- 
Summary and Comment 
------------------- 
 
 
1. (S/REL UK)  Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud 
Barzani briefed DCM, PolMilCouns, Operation Northern Watch 
POLAD and UK Charge in Ankara Jan. 9 on his Jan. 7-9 meetings 
with Turkish officials.  Barzani said the tone of Turkish 
official interaction had improved significantly this visit 
and had set the stage for the KDP to once again be Turkey's 
"good friend and ally" in the region.  However, when the 
subject of possible Turkish military intervention in northern 
Iraq came up, Barzani told us that even if the Turks came as 
part of a US-led coalition, the KDP would object and would 
view the Turks as invaders, not liberators like the US and 
the UK.  He said the aim of a Turkish military presence would 
be to strangle Kurdish aspirations and that once the Turks 
came in large numbers, they would never leave.  The alarming 
problem, Barzani complained, is that if the KDP objects to 
Turkish participation, the Turks will accuse the KDP of being 
ant-coalition and pro-Saddam.  If the KDP acquiesces to 
Turkish participation, the Turkish presence will work 
underground against the KDP.  end Summary. 
 
 
2. (U) KDP leader Masoud Barzani visited Ankara January 7-9 
for the first time since May 2002.  Barzani was accompanied 
by KDP "Deputy PM" Sami Abdulrahman, Politburo member Azad 
Barwari and KDP Ankara rep Safeen Dizayee.  While in Ankara, 
Barzani met PM Gul, TGS D/CHOD Buyukanit, MFA U/S Ziyal and 
Turkish National Intelligence Organization (TNIO) Chief 
Atasaygun.  Barzani briefed DCM, PolMilCouns, ONW POLAD and 
UK Charge for breakfast Jan. 9, before his meetings with the 
PM and D/CHOD (details of those meetings to be reported 
separately).  Barzani told us he plans to travel from Turkey 
to Damascus Jan. 9 for a two-day visit before returning to 
northern Iraq. 
 
 
3. (S/REL UK) Comment: The conversation with Barzani 
underscores the urgency of getting the Turks, KDP, PUK and 
appropriate US representatives into the same room at the same 
time to make clear the rules of the road we envision as we 
move forward with our Iraq planning.  Clearly, there will be 
ruffled feathers no matter which way we go.  But better to 
have them ruffled now and work out solutions in advance where 
possible than to deal with the disagreements for the first 
time on the ground in northern Iraq after D-day.  Septel with 
recommendation to follow. 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
KDP Relations with Turks Improving 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (S/REL UK) Barzani said that in his meetings with TNIO, 
MFA and TGS 1/7-8 the Turks had displayed a new and improved 
tone toward the KDP.  They told him, "we assure you we have 
no intention of taking Kirkuk or Mosul.  We want to work 
together with you.  We respect the will of the Iraqi people. 
Turkey and the KDP should cooperate."  Barzani replied that 
this position would generate positive steps from the KDP, and 
that if the language of the relationship was that of mutual 
respect and cooperation rather than of threats, the KDP would 
once again be Turkey's good friend and ally in the region. 
Barzani emphasized Turkey's importance for northern Iraq and 
assured the Turks that the KDP did not seek an independent 
Kurdish entity.  He asked them why they repeatedly accused 
the KDP of seeking one.  The KDP supported the outcome of the 
London opposition conference as an expression of the will of 
the Iraqi people and would work on that basis for all of Iraq. 
 
 
5. (S/REL UK) Barzani went on to say that post-Saddam Iraq 
should be a place where all people exist on an equal basis 
with protection for the rights of all individuals.  He asked 
the Turks why they believed the KDP oppressed, or would in 
the future oppress, the Iraqi Turkmen.  He again invited the 
GOT to send a parliamentary and/or MFA delegation to northern 
Iraq to investigate the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) accusations 
against the KDP so Turks could see for themselves the ITF 
violations of the law and the rights they enjoy nonetheless. 
Barzani pointed out that at London the KDP had supported 
granting the Iraqi Turkmen Front a second seat on the 
Advisory Committee to avoid hard feelings in Ankara. 
 
 
---------------------- 
London a Great Success 
---------------------- 
 
 
6. (S/REL UK) Turning to the London Conference, Barzani 
called it a great success that exceeded his personal 
expectations.  He said the opposition and its friends and 
allies should be extremely satisfied.  "We went in with no 
idea of what we could all unite behind and ended up with 
something very satisfying (the vision statement and the 
political declaration) and with good balance in the 
composition of the Advisory Committee."  Barzani praised both 
the message from the White House following the conference and 
his and Jalal Talabani's meeting with UK PM Blair.  He hoped 
the next steps would be as successful as London, and declared 
that since London "the Iraqi regime has given up all hope. 
After the next meeting in Salahadeen on January 20 or 21, 
they'll be even more angry and agitated."  He said he 
expected the Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS/Mukhabarat) to 
direct terror attacks against the meeting, but was confident 
that the KDP had the security situation on the ground under 
control.  "We are taking all the necessary security 
meansures," he said, but noted that Saddam was "upset and 
sensitive" about the whole opposition project. 
 
 
7. (S/REL UK) DCM asked Barzani if Turkey still had concerns 
about the balance of the Advisory Committee.  Barzani said 
they did, mainly about SCIRI/Shia domination.  But, he said, 
the Shia are a majority of the population, some are Turkmen, 
and many are not pro-SCIRI.  The Committee roughly reflects 
the population of Iraq although, he conceeded, no one really 
know the demographics of Iraq today with any certainty. 
Barzani thought the Turks exaggerated the balance issue and 
said the solution is an internationally supervised census 
immediately after Iraq is liberated.  DCM then asked if the 
Turks would support and facilitate access to the Salahadeen 
meeting.  Barzani said that MFA U/S Ziyal had not been 
encouraging, but that Barzani would raise the issue with PM 
Gul later that morning.  Barzani added that Iran and Syria 
had both promised to facilitate the access of the Committee 
to the area. 
 
 
------------------------------------ 
Barzani Against Turkish Intervention 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
8. (S/REL UK) PolMilCouns asked if the Turks had raised any 
military plans.  Here the conversation became heated. 
Barzani said they had been raised in a casual manner and he 
expected more detail when he saw the D/CHOD later in the day. 
 Barzani said he had responded clearly that the intervention 
of Turkish forces would lead to disarray and multiple 
problems.  He wondered under what pretext the Turks planned 
to intervene.  If to prevent the establishment of an 
independent Kurdish entity, the KDP would give Turkey a 
guarantee against it.  If to prevent a mass exodus, Barzani 
did not believe it would happen and if it did, the people 
wouldn't come to Turkey after their experience from the past. 
 And Turkish intervention would draw in the Iranians making 
the region a battlefield for settling old scores.  "Frankly," 
Barzani said, "we and the people of northern Iraq cannot 
tolerate such an intervention." 
 
 
9.(S/REL UK) When the Turks asked Barzani whether Turkish 
military presence could be arranged through coordination with 
the KDP, he replied that the KDP had done so in the past for 
operations against the PKK and could do so again if a 
situation arises where Turkish assistance is needed.  Barzani 
pointed out that Turkey already has troops in northern Iraq. 
They are visible and their presence is acceptable.  Anything 
more than what is there now is not acceptable.  If there were 
a decision for Turkish military involvement in northern Iraq, 
he said, that would change the circumstances and balances. 
He said, "Turkish military intervention is a survival matter 
for us.  It would mean that we would fall under Turkish rule. 
 If we can't stop that from happening, we would leave the 
country." 
 
 
------------------------ 
Even in US-Led Coalition 
------------------------ 
 
 
10. (S/REL UK) Even if the Turks came into northern Iraq as 
part of a coalition under US command, Barzani said, in fact 
under any circumstances, increased Turkish military presence 
would be unhelpful.  Barzani pointed to the Turkish-led Peace 
Monitoring Force (PMF -set up in 1997 to monitor the 
cease-fire between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of 
Kurdistan) as an example of why he does not want more Turkish 
troops there.  "I'll tell you clearly what the PMF does: 
everything but mediation between us and the PUK.  They try to 
train and arm the ITF, they take away historical artifacts, 
they engage in drug smuggling and even in assassination 
plots.  And they don't leave.  And there are only a few 
hundred of them.  If the US signed a document saying the 
Turks would leave immediately after their tasks were 
complete, we could consider supporting Turkish participation 
in northern Iraq."  Barzani said he would welcome the chance 
to discuss with US officials whether Turkish forces were 
needed in northern Iraq and whether the Turks were open to a 
tripartite (US/TU/KDP-PUK) meeting at any level to discuss 
this. 
 
 
11. (S/REL UK) Barzani, twisting his napkin and becoming 
emotional, continued.  "My position is clear.  Under any 
circumstances, Turkish forces will be considered an invading 
force whether alone or part of a coalition because Turkey's 
intent is not to leave.  The aims of a Turkish military 
presence are different from those of US and UK liberators. 
The Turks would be there to strangle Kurdish aspirations.  If 
this comes to pass, we will withdraw from all cooperation." 
He said that US authorities had repeatedly assured him that 
there would be no Turkish forces entering northern Iraq.  "We 
totally dislike the idea of their presence," he said.  DCM 
countered that while we were unaware of any decisions about 
Turkish participation from the US or Turkish sides, we would 
hope that if the Turks were there as part of the effort to 
change the regime in Baghdad the KDP would see Turkish 
participation as part of that effort and support it.  DCM 
urged Barzani to take the issue up further with Presidential 
Special Envoy Khalilzad.  Barzani said he would do so and 
underscored that the alarming consideration for the KDP was 
that although the Turks wanted to be in Iraq for their own 
aims, if the KDP opposed their participation the Turks would 
accuse the KDP of being anti-coalition and pro-Saddam.  and 
if the KDP accepted Turkish participation, the Turks would 
work behind the scenes against the KDP, like they are doing 
in the PMF. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Emergency Relief Preparations in Northern Iraq 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
12. (S/REL UK) KDP "Deputy PM" Sami Abdulrahman told us that 
the World Food Program had begun an emergency three-month 
advance distribution of food rations and would foillow this 
with another two-month advance so that the 3.6 million ration 
card holders in northern Iraq would soon have five months of 
food at home.  He said the KDP had spoken at length with 
UNOCHI, NGOS and the ICRC and had done considerable 
contingency planning.  "Relief does not require military 
intervention by Turkish forces," he said. "We've been running 
the administration of the region for ten years and can handle 
an IDP situation."  KDP Ankara rep Dizayee noted that the 
KDP's Ministry of Humanitarian Assistance and Cooperation had 
completed a study of contingencies and set up a system for 
implementation.  They would soon send a rep to the embassy in 
ankara to brief us on the plans.  Barzani added that the KDP 
would of course welcome any assistance with the relief 
effort, including joint studies and contributions to their 
system.  But, Barzani said, he believed people would not move 
to northern Iraq in large numbers.  If they did, the KDP 
would welcome them.  But that did not mean the KDP needed 
Turkish forces to be present.  Turkey, he said, was using 
protection of refugees as a pretext for intervention. 
PEARSON