US embassy cable - 03SOFIA88

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000088 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  1/10/13 
TAGS:  PGOV, PINR, BU 
SUBJECT:  SQUARING THE LAWYERS' CIRCLE:  LEADING 
FIGURES IN BULGARIA'S RULING PARTY COME UNDER ATTACK 
 
REFS:  A) 01 SOFIA 2950, B) SOFIA 23, C) SOFIA 33 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY CDA ROD MOORE, PER 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  THE FOUR MOST PROMINENT MEMBERS OF 
THE SO-CALLED "LAWYERS CIRCLE," WHICH HAS BEEN 
EXTREMELY INFLUENTIAL WITHIN THE RULING NATIONAL 
MOVEMENT SIMEON II (NDSV), HAVE COME UNDER VARYING 
                          SECRET 
 
PAGE 02        SOFIA  00088  01 OF 02  101523Z 
DEGREES OF SUSTAINED CRITICISM IN RECENT WEEKS, MUCH 
OF IT RELATED TO CORRUPTION.  THE PRIME MINISTER HAS 
THUS FAR BEEN AVERSE TO TAKING DECISIVE ACTION IN SUCH 
MATTERS.  HIS REACTION TO THE CONTROVERSIES SWIRLING 
AROUND INTERIOR MINISTER PETKANOV, DEFENSE MINISTER 
SVINAROV, SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT GERDZHIKOV AND NDSV 
FLOOR LEADER PANAYOTOV, WILL SAY MUCH ABOUT HIS 
LEADERSHIP AND MAY ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON 
THE LONGEVITY OF HIS GOVERNMENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) OF THE VARIOUS GROUPS WITHIN THE HETEROGENEOUS 
RULING PARTY, THE MOST INFLUENTIAL HAS BEEN THE SO- 
CALLED "LAWYERS CIRCLE" (REF A).  IT IS COMPOSED 
PRIMARILY OF FORMER PROFESSORS FROM THE SOFIA 
UNIVERSITY LAW FACULTY AND THEIR STUDENTS.  THE 
LEADING FIGURES ARE THE FORMER LAW PROFESSORS OGNYAN 
GERDZHIKOV (NOW SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT), PLAMEN 
PANAYOTOV (FLOOR LEADER OF THE NDSV PARLIAMENTARY 
FACTION) AND GEORGI PETKANOV (MINISTER OF INTERIOR). 
ALL ARE REPORTEDLY CLOSE TO THE PM'S NOTORIOUS FORMER 
CHIEF OF STAFF, STOYAN GANEV.  LAWYER NIKOLAY SVINAROV 
WAS NOT A KEY MEMBER OF THIS GROUP INITIALLY BUT 
REPORTEDLY OWES HIS APPOINTMENT AS DEFENSE MINISTER 
AND NDSV DEPUTY CHAIRMAN TO THEIR INFLUENCE.  (THERE 
HAS ALSO BEEN UNCORROBORATED SPECULATION THAT HIS 
LEGAL SERVICES FOR REPUTED ORGANIZED CRIME FIGURE 
VASIL BOZHKOV, A.K.A. "THE SKULL," WHO WAS ALSO CLOSE 
TO GANEV, PLAYED A ROLE IN HIS SELECTION.) 
 
3. (S) INTERIOR MINISTER PETKANOV HAS BEEN THE SUBJECT 
OF RIGHT-WING SUSPICION SINCE HIS APPOINTMENT, THANKS 
                          SECRET 
 
PAGE 03        SOFIA  00088  01 OF 02  101523Z 
TO HIS REPUTATION AS AN ACTIVE MEMBER OF THE COMMUNIST 
NOMENKLATURA AT SOFIA UNIVERSITY.  HIS SUPPORT OF THE 
INEFFECTIVE AND PROBABLY CORRUPT PROSECUTOR GENERAL 
NIKOLA FILCHEV HAS DRAWN CRITICISM FROM WOULD-BE 
REFORMERS.  NOW HE IS ALSO EMBROILED IN THE "GNOME" 
WIRETAPPING AFFAIR (REF C).  MOI CHIEF SECRETARY BOYKO 
BORISOV TOLD THE DCM THAT HE HAD ADVISED THE PRIME 
MINISTER ON JANUARY 5 THAT AS A RESULT OF THE "GNOME" 
SCANDAL EITHER HE, PETKANOV, OR THE HEAD OF THE 
NATIONAL INVESTIGATIVE SERVICE GEN CHOBANOV WOULD HAVE 
TO GO.  SINCE BORISOV IS WILDLY POPULAR WITH THE 
BULGARIAN PUBLIC (AND, SEEMINGLY, WITH THE PM) AND 
CHOBANOV RECENTLY RECEIVED A VOTE OF "ABSOLUTE 
CONFIDENCE" FROM THE PRESIDENT, BORISOV'S CALL APPEARS 
TO BE A TRANSPARENT ATTEMPT TO OUST HIS LONG-TIME 
NEMESIS PETKANOV. 
 
4. (S) DEFENSE MINISTER SVINAROV HAS COME UNDER FIRE 
RECENTLY FROM AT LEAST TWO DIRECTIONS.  A U.S. TEAM 
INVESTIGATING THE ILLEGAL SALE OF DUAL-USE GOODS TO 
SYRIA BY THE MOD-OWNED FIRM TEREM BRIEFED THE PM IN 
DECEMBER ON ITS CONCLUSIONS THAT SVINAROV WAS AWARE OF 
AT LEAST ONE SHIPMENT AFTER THE FACT, BUT FAILED TO 
TAKE TIMELY ACTION TO STOP A SECOND SHIPMENT OR TO 
INFORM OTHER MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT ABOUT THE 
TRANSGRESSION.  CHIEF OF THE GENERAL STAFF GEN KOLEV 
(STRICTLY PROTECT) HAS ALSO LEVELED CHARGES OF 
CORRUPTION WITHIN THE MOD IN A (THUS FAR) STILL SECRET 
REPORT DELIVERED TO THE PRESIDENT AND SENIOR MOD 
LEADERS. 
 
                          SECRET 
 
PAGE 04        SOFIA  00088  01 OF 02  101523Z 
5. (C) NDSV FLOOR LEADER (AND THE PARTY'S FIRST DEPUTY 
CHAIRMAN) PANAYOTOV HAS BEEN A DIVISIVE FIGURE AMONG 
THE PARTY'S MPS.  MANY NDSV PARLIAMENTARIANS HAVE 
COMPLAINED OF BEING FROZEN OUT OF DECISION-MAKING.  HE 
HAS ALSO BEEN CRITICIZED FOR HIS "AUTHORITARIAN" 
MANAGEMENT STYLE AND FOR MAKING PATRONAGE APPOINTMENTS 
WITHOUT CONSULTING OTHER MEMBERS OF THE GROUP.  THE 
PRESS HAS BEEN REPORTING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS 
THAT CHANGES IN THE LEADERSHIP OF THE PARLIAMENTARY 
GROUP ARE IMMINENT, WITH THE PRIME MINISTER LIKELY TO 
REPLACE PANAYOTOV WITH AN MP MORE ACCEPTABLE TO THE 
PARTY'S REBELLIOUS YOUNG TURKS.  (WE BELIEVE RUMORS OF 
PANAYOTOV'S IMMINENT DEPARTURE ARE STILL VERY 
SPECULATIVE, HOWEVER.)  RECENTLY PANAYOTOV ALSO MET 
WITH THE "VUZRAZHDANE" BUSINESS CLUB, WHICH COUNTS 
AMONG ITS MEMBERS VASIL BOZHKOV AND OTHER SHADY 
"BUSINESSMEN" BELIEVED TO BE LINKED TO ORGANIZED CRIME 
GROUPS.  (ONE MP CLOSE TO PANAYOTOV TOLD US HE HAD 
SOUGHT AND RECEIVED THE PM'S BLESSING FOR THIS 
MEETING.) 
 
6. (C) PARLIAMENT CHAIRMAN (SPEAKER) GERDZHIKOV, WHO 
IS CLOSELY ALLIED WITH MINISTER PETKANOV, HAD MANAGED 
TO STAY ABOVE THE FRAY UNTIL RECENTLY.  HE HAS NOW 
 
                          SECRET 
 
                              SECRET        PTQ7031 
 
PAGE 01        SOFIA  00088  02 OF 02  101524Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NRRC-00  NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02 
      G-00     SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------2334C9  101524Z /38 
P 101518Z JAN 03 
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4468 
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
 
S E C R E T SECTION 02 OF 02 SOFIA 000088 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  1/10/13 
TAGS:  PGOV, PINR, BU 
SUBJECT:  SQUARING THE LAWYERS' CIRCLE:  LEADING 
FIGURES IN BULGARIA'S RULING PARTY COME UNDER ATTACK 
 
BEEN DRAGGED INTO THE FILCHEV SAGA BY EDVIN SUGAREV, A 
FORMER DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE OPPOSITION UDF AND 
AMBASSADOR TO INDIA.  SUGAREV CHARGED IN AN OPEN 
LETTER RELEASED JANUARY 7 THAT GERDZHIKOV HAS BEEN 
SUBJECT TO UNDUE INFLUENCE BY THE PROSECUTOR GENERAL 
BECAUSE OF HIS POSSIBLY CORRUPT INVOLVEMENT IN THE 
CONTROVERSIAL PRIVATIZATION OF AGROPROMSTROI SEVERAL 
YEARS AGO.  (GERDZHIKOV HAS STRONGLY SUPPORTED 
                          SECRET 
 
PAGE 02        SOFIA  00088  02 OF 02  101524Z 
FILCHEV, WHO WAS BEST MAN AT HIS WEDDING.)  GERDZHIKOV 
HAS DENIED THE ACCUSATION, BUT IT HAS DRAWN ATTENTION 
TO HIS FORMER BUSINESS RELATIONS WITH REPRESENTATIVES 
OF THE MULTIGROUP (MG) CONGLOMERATE, WHICH HAS BEEN 
LINKED TO ORGANIZED CRIME ACTIVITIES. 
 
7. (C) ONE PROMINENT NDSV LAWYER NOT APPARENTLY 
AFFILIATED WITH THE "LAWYERS CIRCLE" IS JUSTICE 
MINISTER ANTON STANKOV.  STANKOV'S REFORM EFFORTS HAVE 
BEEN STYMIED BY AN ENTRENCHED JUDICIAL BUREAUCRACY 
(REF B), AND HE HAS BUTTED HEADS REPEATEDLY WITH 
FILCHEV.  WE HAVE HEARD FROM SEVERAL SOURCES THAT THE 
PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER PETKANOV HAVE NOT 
SUPPORTED STANKOV'S INITIATIVES TO REFORM THE JUDICIAL 
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH RECENTLY THE PM DID INDICATE HE WOULD 
SUPPORT CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS TO THIS END. 
 
8. (C) COMMENT:  THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE 
ATTACKS ON THE "LAWYERS CIRCLE" ARE PART OF AN 
ORCHESTRATED SCHEME; A NUMBER OF OTHER PROMINENT 
FIGURES ARE ALSO UNDER POLITICAL AND/OR LEGAL PRESSURE 
AT THIS TIME FOR VARIOUS REASONS (INCLUDING FILCHEV, 
DEPUTY PM VASILEV, FORMER INTELLIGENCE SERVICE CHIEF 
ATANAS ATANASOV, FORMER PM IVAN KOSTOV AND SEVERAL 
OFFICIALS OF HIS ADMINISTRATION).  NOR IS IT CLEAR TO 
WHAT EXTENT THE "LAWYERS CIRCLE" REMAINS A COHESIVE 
GROUP.  STILL, SUGAREV'S ATTACK ON GERDZHIKOV APPEARS 
TO COMPLETE THE CHESSBOARD FOR A MAJOR POLITICAL 
SHOWDOWN IN 2003.  IN ITS INITIAL STAGES, AT LEAST, IT 
APPEARS THE GAME WILL PIT THE LAWYERS CIRCLE (ALONG 
WITH FILCHEV) AGAINST BOTH THE CENTER-RIGHT UDF AND 
                          SECRET 
 
PAGE 03        SOFIA  00088  02 OF 02  101524Z 
GROUPS WITHIN THE NDSV OPPOSED TO THE LAWYERS. 
COMPLICATING THIS SCENARIO IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER 
OF UDF OFFICIALS REMAIN CLOSE TO FILCHEV, WHO WAS A 
UDF APPOINTEE. 
 
9. (C) COMMENT, CONTINUED:  IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL 
WHETHER THE LAWYERS GROUP CAN RETAIN THE CONFIDENCE OF 
THE PM, AND WITH IT CONTROL OF LEADING POSITIONS 
WITHIN THE GOB, AND/OR WHETHER THE BATTLE WILL SPLIT 
THE NDSV AND PERHAPS FORCE EARLY ELECTIONS.  MEANWHILE 
THE OPPOSITION SOCIALIST PARTY (BSP), WHICH HAS A 
COMFORTABLE LEAD IN MOST OPINION POLLS, SEEMS LIKELY 
TO STAY ON THE SIDELINES AND LET THE OTHER PLAYERS 
BATTER EACH OTHER.  END COMMENT. 
 
MOORE