US embassy cable - 92KHARTOUM2013

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 02013 
 
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (DELETING SECTION INFORMATION) 
 
E.O. 12356:DECL:OADR 
TAGS: PGOV, SU 
SUBJECT:  EMERGENCE OF BASHIR? - ROLE DEFINING IN THE 
          NIF DOMINATED GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN 
 
REF: ADDIS ABABA 01259 (NOTAL) 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  FROM A NUMBER OF CONTACTS 
WE HAVE HAD LATELY IN KHARTOUM'S EVER ACTIVE 
POLITICAL CIRCLES, THERE IS PLAUSIBLE, BUT NOT YET 
CONCLUSIVE, HOPE THAT SUDAN'S PRESIDENT MAY BE 
TRYING TO WIGGLE OUT SOMEWHAT FROM UNDER THE NIF 
SHADOW.  BASHIR'S CONTINUING WEAKNESS, HOWEVER, IS 
THAT HIS CORE SUPPORT GROUP, THE ARMY, IS BEING 
REMOLDED DAY BY DAY BY THE NIF.  WHEN IT COMES TO 
POLITICAL ASSETS, BASHIR HAS HAD LITTLE TO RECOMMEND 
HIM BUT HIS UNIFORM.  THAT NOW MAY BE DEVALUED.  ANY 
INDEPENDENCE HE NOW MAY SHOW, PERHAPS USING THE NEW 
TNC, MAY WELL BE TOO LATE TO MATTER MUCH.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
3.  A RECENT CONVERSATION BETWEEN DCM, POL&ECON 
COUNSELOR AND PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR FOR CIVILIAN 
AFFAIRS AHMED ZEIN AL ABDIEN, NEWLY NAMED TO THE 
TRANSITIONAL NATIONAL COUNCIL AND LONG A DUP PARTY 
STALWART, PARALLELED GENERALLY THE LINE WE HAVE BEEN 
HEARING FROM OTHERS LATELY THAT BASHIR HAS SOME 
IDEAS OF HIS OWN AND IS NOT A TOTALLY KEPT MAN. 
THIS ARGUMENT ALSO SQUARES WITH THE COMMENTS BASHIR 
IS REPORTED TO HAVE MADE TO TGE PRESIDENT MELES AND 
PGE CHIEF ISAIAS DURING HIS RECENT VISIT TO ASMARA. 
(REFTEL). 
 
4.  AL ABDEIN HAS BEEN ONE OF OUR FEW BRIDGES TO 
BASHIR AS US/SUDAN RELATIONS SOURED AND SANK.  HE IS 
A WESTERN ORIENTED LAWYER, AN OLD TIME POLITICIAN 
AND WHEELER-DEALER, AND AN ODD MAN IN BASHIR'S 
ENTOURAGE.  WE TAKE HIM FOR A MESSAGE BEARER, AND A 
MAN TO REPORT HIS SOUNDINGS TO BASHIR.  AS FAR AS WE 
CAN TELL, HE IS NOT SOME NIF PLANT DOUBLING ON 
BASHIR BUT HAS HIS OWN AXES TO GRIND. 
 
5.  IN THE COURSE OF A LENGTHY CONVERSATION ON THE 
NEW PSEUDO-PARLIAMENT, THE TNC, AL ABDEIN SAID HE 
HAD RECEIVED BY DIRECT INTERVENTION WITH BASHIR, A 
FAIR SLICE OF THE SEATS FOR HIS OWN DUP PARTY 
CRONIES.  HE DESCRIBED THE PROCESS IN TERMS OF 
POLITICAL WHEELING AND DEALING, ASSURING US THAT, 
NIF OR NOT, SUDAN STILL HAD PLENTY OF ACTIVE 
POLITICKING GOING ON. 
 
6.  HE ALSO MADE THE POINT THAT THE TNC COULD, NOT 
WOULD, DEVELOP INTO A POLITICAL MECHANISM OF USE TO 
BASHIR DESPITE ITS RIGGED NIF MAJORITY OF 
APPOINTEES.  AL ABDEIN WENT TO SOME LENGTH TO PAINT 
BASHIR AS A MAN BURDENED WITH OFFICE, AN 
UNSOPHISTICATED BUT GENERALLY HONEST SOLDIER WHO WAS 
IN OVER HIS HEAD.  AL ABDEIN VERY STRONGLY 
SUGGESTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TNC COULD TURN OUT TO 
BE A BASHIR HORSE TO THE NIF'S TROY.  IF PROPERLY 
USED, THE TNC COULD SERVE TO BUILD POLITICAL POWER 
BACKING THE PRESIDENT.  HE WOULD NOT BE DRAWN OUT ON 
THE CHANCES FOR THIS COMING ABOUT. 
 
6.  MORE COMMENT: WE DOUBT THAT AN EMERGENCE OF 
BASHIR VIA THE TNC IS IN THE CARDS.  FROM ALL THAT 
WE HAVE SEEN OF IT AND ITS ORGANISATION, THE TNC 
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES AN OLD SOVIET STYLE PEOPLES 
CONGRESS, A PULPIT FOR THE OLIGARCHS TO USE TO 
RECEIVE PREPARED OVATIONS.  BUT AL ABDEIN'S 
SUGGESTION THAT BASHIR MIGHT WANT TO USE THIS BODY 
AND HIS REPEATED ASSERTION THAT BASHIR IS NOT JUST A 
CIPHER, LEAD US TO THINK BASHIR MAY IN FACT HAVE 
SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT WHERE HIS NIF MENTORS HAVE LED 
HIM AND HIS COUNTRY. 
 
7.  EVEN IF TRUE, IT MAY WELL BE TOO LATE.  IN ANY 
EVENT, THE NIF ARE MAKING IT MORE AND MORE CLEAR 
THAT THEY PLAY ROUGH; ANY ERRANT SHOW OF INDEPENDENCE 
IN THE TNC IS LIKELY TO GET ITS AUTHOR SMACKED DOWN 
PROMPTLY.  IF BASHIR HOPES TO USE THE TNC TO BUILD 
HIMSELF A POLITICAL BASE, HE WILL HAVE TO MOVE WITH 
MORE POLITICAL SAVVY AND ENERGY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN 
HIM SO FAR. 
 
CHEEK