US embassy cable - 03RANGOON16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
USCINCPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BM, NLD 
SUBJECT: BURMA'S INDEPENDENCE DAY; THE NLD CALLS FOR 
DIALOGUE; THE GOB FOR DISCIPLINE 
 
REF: 02 RANGOON 1663 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen M. Martinez. Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Burma's January 4 Independence Day 
celebrations produced no new gestures of reconciliation and 
perhaps a slight hardening of positions on both sides.  The 
National League for Democracy called for an end to political 
oppression, the release of all political prisoners, and the 
initiation of a "real" political dialogue on constitutional 
issues.  It also indicated that there was no room for any 
reciprocal, confidence-building gestures from the NLD until a 
real political dialogue was started.  The government rejected 
international criticism of the harassment to which Aung San 
Suu Kyi had been subjected in Rakhine State and called on all 
parties to "play by the prevailing rules and regulations." 
It also focused its Independence Day speeches almost 
exclusively on history and the economy, saying nothing at all 
about political transition.  End Summary. 
 
NLD Celebration 
 
2. (U) The NLD celebration took place as usual before a crowd 
of about 500, including ethnic representatives (mostly 
members of the Committee to Represent the People's 
Parliament), diplomats from most Western embassies and Japan, 
and representatives of the UN agencies.  The highlight was 
the presentation of a new party resolution which reaffirmed 
the party's willingness to work cooperatively with the 
military on political transition, but which also condemned 
the continuing political oppression in Burma and called for 
the start of a "real dialogue" on constitutional issues. 
Until that dialogue started, the resolution said, the party 
would stand by its current positions.  It would demand that 
the results of the 1990 election be implemented and would 
refuse to attend the National Convention convened by the SPDC 
to draft a new constitution.  It would also continue to hold 
to its current position on aid: aid should be granted to 
Burma only for humanitarian purposes and then only under 
conditions that would ensure that it was "transparent, 
accountable, and independently monitored."  In her oral 
remarks, ASSK added a call for selfless dedication to the 
party.  If the party was rent by the pursuit of individual 
ambition, it would inevitably dissolve. 
 
The GOB Celebrations 
 
3. (U) The GOB itself had nothing to say about democracy or 
political transition in any of its official Independence Day 
messages.  Delivered before the usual crowds of thousands, 
those speeches focused almost exclusively on history and the 
economy, and the current need for austerity.  There was not a 
word about democracy or political transition.  Moreover, in a 
statement released that same day, the GOB rejected 
international criticism of the harassment the NLD encountered 
in Rakhine State (reftel) and called on all political parties 
"to play by the rules and regulations of the political game." 
 The local authorities in Rakhine State, the GOB said, were 
only applying the law and, in particular, the current ban on 
all outdoor political rallies. 
 
Other Groups 
 
4. (U) Two other groups also chimed in with political 
statements.  U Tha Gyaw, the Chairman of the National Unity 
Party, which is basically the reincarnation of Ne Win's old 
Burma Socialist Program Party, called for a multiparty 
democracy.  Similarly, at an event attended by ASSK and other 
NLD leaders, the Veteran Politicians Group (basically General 
Aung San and Ne Win's contemporaries) called for the SPDC and 
the NLD to start "a meaningful political dialogue at the 
earliest possible moment." 
 
Comment 
 
5. (C) Independence Day may not have produced any progress on 
political transition, but it at least produced some clarity 
regarding both sides' positions.  ASSK has been saying for 
some time that the period of confidence-building is over. 
From the party's Independence Day resolution, it is now clear 
what she means by that: until a "real dialogue" has begun, 
there is no room for reciprocal gestures by the NLD (e.g. 
calling for additional aid or any easing of sanctions). 
Evidently, the NLD has come to the decision that it has few 
cards to play and cannot play any of those cards prematurely. 
 Once there is a real prospect for change; i.e., some real 
dialogue with the government, then the NLD can call for some 
relaxation of the current pressure.  Until that point is 
reached, however, the party (or at least ASSK) now apparently 
believes that the best counsel is simply to hold firm. 
 
6. (C) The GOB meanwhile has laid down some markers of its 
own, cautioning the NLD not to abuse the political freedoms 
it's been given.  The "evolving political transition in 
Myanmar will continue unabated, provided that political 
parties also play by the prevailing rules and regulations of 
the political game."  The hint is that the government will 
react firmly to any efforts to provoke unrest or 
confrontation. 
7. (C) Finally, the positions of the NUP and the veteran 
politicians are both interesting.  The NUP has always been 
one of the props of the regime.  That it is now choosing to 
come down publicly in favor of multiparty democracy is a 
strong indication of the direction in which it sees the 
political winds blowing.  Similarly, the Veteran Politicians 
Group has long called for dialogue.  This is the first time, 
however, that it has issued that call in company with the NLD 
and Aung San Suu Kyi.  End Comment. 
Martinez