US embassy cable - 03ABUJA12

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000012 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, SOCI, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  PDP GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARIES 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CDA TIMOTHY D. ANDREWS.  REASONS: 1.5 (B & D). 
 
 
1.   (U) The People's Democratic Party (PDP) held its so- 
called primaries during Christmas week 2002, producing few 
surprises.  The selection of delegates to the state-by- 
state caucuses was designed to give maximum authority to 
incumbent governors in controlling the selection process. 
As expected, the majority of incumbents faced only token 
opposition in securing renomination.  Questions remain 
about the validity of several of the caucuses, however, due 
to ongoing controversy.  Often-conflicting reports sourced 
to different party officials indicate that the caucuses in 
at least two, and possibly as many as ten, of the 36 states 
may have been suspended or annulled.  Further, the final 
nomination of candidates requires the National Executive 
Council (under party Chairman Audu Ogbeh) to certify the 
state-by-state results. 
 
 
2.  (U) Ogbeh told the press on December 30, 2002, that the 
incumbent governors would "ordinarily not have been made to 
go through the rigor of primaries but for the need to 
address the fears of some members that candidates would be 
imposed on the party."  He then presented 20 of the 21 PDP 
incumbent governors with nomination certificates.  Anambra 
Governor Mbadinaju may have been the exception, though some 
reports say he ultimately got his certificate also. 
 
 
3.  (C) In spite of Ogbeh's soothing words about the 
"primary process," many irregularities arose.  The party 
has made no definitive statement on the validity of the 
various state primaries and party officials have given 
conflicting statements on the conduct of primaries in the 
remaining states.  In many instances, the reported vote 
tally requires observers to suspend belief.  In one state, 
for example, the incumbent won 100 percent of the votes, 
indicating that his two opponents, realizing their own 
limitations, voted against themselves. 
 
 
4.  (C) In another instance, the Election Returns Officer 
from Delta State showed the primary tally sheets to PolOff 
on January 1, commenting that he did not know what he 
should do with them.  He said that, before the "primary," 
President Obasanjo had advised him to ensure the victory of 
a specific senatorial candidate.  Shortly after his 
conversation with the President, the Vice-President had 
called on behalf of a second candidate and former Minister 
of Works and Obasanjo's Rasputin Tony Anenih lobbied for a 
third candidate.  Further, the Returns Officer said, before 
he could tally the results, the outcome was announced by 
the Presidency in Abuja. 
 
 
5.  (C) Even though Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso received 
the nomination certificate at the PDP's December 30, 2002, 
ceremony, the outcome of the Kano caucus is controversial. 
Some reports say that the caucuses were suspended due to 
irregularities while others announced "official" results. 
In either case the machinations in Kano highlight the 
difficulty of maintaining 100 percent control over the 
selections.  Kwankwaso, an Obasanjo supporter, was 
successful in his quest for securing the gubernatorial 
nomination, winning a reported 284 of 287 votes after his 
strongest opponent (Umar Danhassan) walked out in the wake 
of denial of accreditation to many supporters.  Meanwhile, 
incumbent Speaker of the House and Obasanjo gadfly Ghali 
Na'Abba secured the party's nomination for his reelection 
bid.  According to one attendee, Na'Abba garnered all the 
votes in the first round, but the Returns Officer announced 
his defeat at the hands of a rival, the son of former Head 
of State Murtala Mohammed and the handpicked candidate of 
President Obasanjo.  After rallying his supporters and 
staging a series of public demonstrations which threatened 
to close down the convention, a second vote was conducted, 
reportedly on instructions from the President, and Na'Abba 
again chalked up a victory.  Kano observers commented that 
the choice of Murtala's son was a poor one since the man 
spoke virtually no Hausa (he grew up in the Southwest and 
is far more fluent in Yoruba) and therefore could not have 
understood most of his "constituents." 
 
 
6.  (C) Ogbeh commented to us that the candidate lists 
would not be final until they are submitted to INEC on 
February 25; until then, the process of vetting would 
continue, and any candidate might be removed at any time. 
Ogbeh also told us that the National Executive Council 
would disqualify those who violate the principles of fair 
play, stressing particularly the importance of eschewing 
violence.  While disqualification remains a possible threat 
for some, irregularities apparently were so widespread and 
pervasive that the vast majority of PDP candidates who 
emerged from the "primaries" ultimately will contest the 
general election for the offices they seek.  No matter what 
Ogbeh's philosophical inclinations or personal intentions 
might be, he simply cannot disqualify every offender.  In 
the end, only a few of the most egregious may face loss of 
their PDP nominations. 
 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  The nomination process for the PDP was 
transparent(ly contrived and occasionally ludicrous) and 
generally far from free and fair.  The delegate lists were 
manipulated to ensure that incumbent governors faced no 
credible challenges.  Returns frequently were inaccurate or 
delayed, occasionally outrightly fraudulent and, finally, 
irrelevant to the announced results.  Losing aspirants may 
now migrate to other parties, but whether they will fare 
better in the general elections is uncertain. 
ANDREWS