US embassy cable - 03ANKARA23

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000023 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, TU 
SUBJECT: APPROVAL OF CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS APPEARS TO 
OPEN WAY TO PRIME MINISTERSHIP FOR AK CHAIRMAN ERDOGAN 
 
 
REF: 2002 ANKARA 9183 
 
 
(U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch; reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (U) President Sezer's Dec. 31 approval of a package of 
constitutional reforms appears to open the door for Justice 
and Development (AK) Party leader Erdogan to regain his 
political rights, run for Parliament, and become Prime 
Minister.  A political reform package of legal amendments 
(the second of the AK government's reform packages), designed 
among other things to clear Erdogan's criminal record, awaits 
Parliament's endorsement this week.  Erdogan has said he will 
decide within days whether to apply to participate in the 
re-run of the general election in Siirt province.  The Siirt 
election is currently scheduled for Feb. 9.  However, Supreme 
Election Board (YSK) chairman Algan declared publicly January 
2 that March or April would be more appropriate "owing to 
weather conditions" and in order to bring the election law 
into conformity with the new constitutional amendments. 
 
 
2. (C) At the same time powerful elements of the State -- 
including the judiciary, security services, and some in the 
Turkish General Staff -- continue to share Sezer's wariness 
toward Erdogan.  These elements still have the means to 
attempt to hobble Erdogan and to promote and exploit intra-AK 
frictions.  Specifically, legal hurdles remain with which 
Erdogan must contend, including ongoing corruption trials 
linked to Erdogan's 1994-98 tenure as Mayor of Istanbul.  In 
addition, the closure case against AK continues. 
 
 
3. (C) Comment: run-up to the Siirt election will occur in 
the context of a sharpened international and domestic Turkish 
debate on Iraq.  Given Erdogan's insistence on controlling 
the current AK government's decisions from party 
headquarters, his propensity to play to popular feelings, and 
his desire not to be handed any fait accompli, we expect GOT 
decision-making to be further encumbered in January and 
February. 
PEARSON