US embassy cable - 03AMMAN16

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 000016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOPORN 
 
DEPT POR NEA AND PRM 
 
E.O. 12958:DECL:12/31/12 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, IZ, JO, PREP 
SUBJECT:  IRAQIS IN JORDAN:  VIEWS FROM UNHCR 
 
REF:  Amman 6518 
 
Classified by DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (S/NF) Summary and Comment:  According to UNHCR 
officials, recognized refugees and asylum seekers represent 
5,000 of the estimated 300,000 Iraqis resident in Jordan. 
With just a ten percent refugee recognition rate, UNHCR 
reports most Iraqis in Jordan are economic migrants who 
simply are looking for a better life outside Iraq -- and 
finding it in grey market jobs in Amman, Zarqa and Irbid. 
This year, UNHCR has seen a decrease in the number of Iraqi 
registered asylum seekers, from just over 5,000 in 2001 to 
just under 4,000 in 2002.  UNHCR attributes the decline to 
a slowdown in resettlement; toughened Jordanian border 
policies; new Iraqi passport and exit visa policy; and a 
recent economic upturn in Iraq.  UNHCR believes the fact 
that so few Iraqis seek to regularize their status via 
UNHCR registration means that most Iraqis have "other 
means" to live quasi-legally in Jordan, maintaining their 
status here by traveling frequently between Iraq and 
Jordan.  In recent months, UNHCR has seen a "significant" 
increase in the detention of recognized refugee and asylum 
seekers and has heard anecdotal reports of tightened 
two weeks.  ORCA sources separately confirmed that the GOJ 
has been actively looking for Iraqi agents and has 
increased deportations, focusing primarily on Iraqi males 
of military age.  UNHCR's low recognition rate, coupled 
with the current tightening of Iraqi border controls, 
likely will keep the recognized refugee and asylum seeker 
population small even as tensions rise inside Iraq.  Given 
the economic focus of Iraqis resident in Jordan, coupled 
with a high degree of caution regarding their future 
prospects inside Iraq, UNHCR believes most Iraqis would 
remain in Jordan for "at least several years" following 
regime change, waiting to see the long-term effects.  End 
summary and comment. 
 
2.  (S/NF) UNHCR officials report that at any 
given time, roughly 1,000 to 1,200 Iraqis 
resident in Jordan hold UNHCR refugee status, 
with another 4,000 or so registered as asylum 
seekers.  Although GID officials routinely cite 
300,000 as the number of Iraqis resident in 
Jordan, UNHCR officials told refcoord they have 
no independent means of verifying this number 
but also no reason to question its validity. 
(GID officials recently told ORCA there 
currently are 305,000 Iraqis in Jordan.)  UNHCR 
Representative Sten Bronee told refcoord that 
UNHCR has seen a decrease in the number of 
Iraqi registered asylum seekers this year, down 
from just over 5,000 in CY2001 to just under 
4,000 in CY2002.  Bronee and other UNHCR 
officials said several factors likely have 
contributed to the decline:  a dramatic 
slowdown in host country resettlement following 
the September 11 terrorist attacks; toughened 
Jordanian border policies; changes in Iraqi 
passport and exit visa policy; and -- according 
to status determination officer Soufiane 
Adjmali -- a recent economic upturn in Iraq. 
(Comment:  Iraq currently is replacing all 
passports to the new "H" series, a slow and 
cumbersome process that may well have reduced 
the number of Iraqis able to travel.  At the 
same time, however, Iraq has waived its 
previous USD 2OO exit visa fee, a factor that 
in theory should increase the number of Iraqis 
traveling abroad.) 
 
3.  (C) UNHCR officials believe that the majority of the 
Iraqi population resident in Jordan is a fluid population 
that moves easily between Iraq and Jordan -- primarily in 
an effort to maintain legal status here.  Noting that 
several thousand people cross the Iraqi-Jordanian border 
every day, UNHCR Senior Protection Officer Jacqueline 
 
Parlevliet told refcoord that most Iraqis likely malntaln 
their quasi-legal status in Jordan by returning to Iraq 
every six months or so.  The fact that such a small 
percentage of Iraqis resident in Jordan seek to regularize 
their status via UNHCR registration (mere possession of a 
UNHCR document identifying an Iraqi as a UNHCR asylum- 
seeker generally gives Iraqis an additional six-month grace 
period with the GOJ), Bronee said, indicates that most 
Iraqis have "other means" to earn a living and maintain 
quasi-legal status in Jordan.  (Comment:  It may also 
indicate that the vast majority of Iraqis understand that 
they do not meet UNHCR criteria for refugee status and 
choose not to begin the process.)  Nevertheless, Caritas 
separately reports that there are a number of truly needy 
Iraqis among the non-refugee population -- primarily 
elderly Iraqis left behind when other family members 
migrated from the region. 
 
4.  (C) According to UNHCR community development officer 
Lisa McCann, the majority of recognized Iraqi refugees and 
asylum seekers live in the poorer neighborhoods of southern 
and eastern Amman.  Smaller concentrations of Iraqi 
refugees and asylum seekers live in Zarqa and Irbid, the 
second and third largest cities in Jordan.  (Comment:  We 
have heard separately that Iraqis seek housing and grey- 
market jobs near the industrial parks of Amman, Zarqa and 
Irbid.)  Only a handful of refugees and asylum seekers -- 
those McCann classified as truly in fear for their lives -- 
live scattered in rural villages.  McCann said that most 
other Iraqis tend to live in Amman, with downtown's 
Hashemite Square as their main gathering spot - the place 
to see, be seen and find any long-lost friends or 
relatives.  McCann added that for this reason, Hashemite 
Square is also a known gathering spot for Iraqi 
intelligence agents -- a fact that makes most refugees and 
asylum seekers nervous.  Citing concern about Iraqi 
refugees' safety, Caritas recently decided to relocate its 
US-funded Iraqi refugee assistance programs from Hashemite 
Square to a more discreet and protected location in Jebel 
Amman. 
5.  (S/NF) UNHCR, like our consular section (ref), 
continues to hear stories of tightened Jordanian border 
controls.  Under previous Jordanian procedures, any Iraqi 
citizen was granted permission upon entry to stay in Jordan 
for two weeks, with an automatic extension to three months 
and a possible, easily obtainable extension of another 
three months.  Now, UNHCR and Caritas officials are hearing 
anecdotal reports from the Iraqi community that Iraqis are 
granted permission only for a two-week stay and that 
certain categories -- young men under the age of 46 -- are 
denied permission entirely.  UNHCR officials also have 
heard that the GOJ is now actively deporting Iraqis who 
overstay their two-week residency and is denying permission 
to these Iraqis to re-enter Jordan.  Australian embassy 
immigration official Todd Jacob separately told refcoord 
that several Australian family reunification cases -- all 
young single men -- were denied entry to Jordan by GOJ 
border officials.  UNHCR officials told refcoord that they 
have formally asked the GOJ to clarify its border 
procedures, but that the GOJ has not yet responded.  (ORCA 
sources report that under current GOJ procedures, Iraqis 
are granted permission to stay in Jordan for two weeks only 
and must immediately register with their local police 
station upon entry into Jordan.  Separately, our consular 
section has seen cases in which Iraqis who had been denied 
entry by GOJ officials at the Iraqi border were later able 
to enter Jordan through Syria.) 
 
6.  (S/NP) Parlevliet and UNHCR Representative Sten Bronee 
confirmed to refcoord th 
at there had been a "significant" 
increase in the number of recognized Iraqi refugees and 
asylum seekers detained by the GOJ in recent months. 
According to Parlevliet, all of the recognized refugees and 
asylum seekers had been detained on security grounds and 
released without charge.  Parlevliet reported that the 
detentions stopped abruptly at the beginning of December 
presumably, she speculated, because the GID had discovered 
that the recognized refugees and asylum seekers were 
exactly what they appeared to be.  (ORCA sources separately 
confirmed that the GOJ has been "actively" looking for 
possible Iraqi agents and has increased deportations, 
focusing primarily on Iraqi males of military age.) 
 
7.  (C) McCann and Parlevliet added that most Iraqi asylum 
seekers in Jordan appear to be economic migrants, without 
any strong claim to refugee status.  As Parlevliet 
regime opponents fled in the aftermath of the 1991 
uprising.  Although Parlevliet told refcoord that she at 
first was appalled by UNHCR's low recognition rate in 
Jordan, she now thinks the ten percent recognition rate may 
even be too high. 
 
8.  (C) UNHCR officials believe the Iraqis resident in 
Jordan would be slow to return home in the event of regime 
change inside Iraq.  Stressing that most Iraqis in Jordan 
came here seeking a better life, Parlevliet said she 
suspects that they would take a cautious approach, waiting 
to see the long-term effects of change in the region. 
While most of the Iraqis resident in Jordan likely would 
welcome regime change, Parlevliet said they likely would 
adopt the same pragmatic approach to post-Saddam Iraq:  are 
they economically better off in Jordan or Iraq?  Absent any 
pressure from the GOJ to send Iraqis home, Parlevliet said 
the Iraqi community is likely to remain in Jordan for "at 
least several years" following regime change. 
 
9.  (C) Comment:  UNHCR recognized refugees and asylum 
seekers represent only a very small segment of the Iraqi 
population resident in Jordan.  UNHCR's low recognition 
rate, the GOJ's tightening of Iraqi border controls, and 
the fact that the act of seeking asylum inherently raises 
an Iraqi's profile likely will continue to keep this 
population relatively small even as tensions rise inside 
Iraq.  We will report via septel on the dynamics of the 
larger Iraqi community resident in Jordan and its likely 
role and impact here in the event of hostilities in Iraq. 
 
GNEHM