US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3374

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 003374 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/12 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT:  NIGERIA: PARTIAL UPDATE ON INEC PREPARATIONS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE ANDREWS.  REASONS 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary. Under growing scrutiny from domestic 
political parties and the international donor community and 
sensing that the sand is emptying from the electoral 
hourglass, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) is 
attempting to show mastery of its brief.  On December 18, 
INEC released a skeletal electoral timetable while also 
holding several meetings with political parties during the 
week of December 16-20. Despite this display of greater 
activity, INEC did not win many converts.  Most of the new 
political parties lambasted the new schedule as 
unrealistic. INEC's tardy completion of the voters list and 
its announcement of a supplemental registration in January 
were derided by several parties; they threatened a lawsuit 
seeking a completely new registration based on allegations 
of massive fraud. In the meantime, having not yet received 
its 27 billion Naira allocation, INEC continued to dawdle 
in making the essential logistical preparations for the 
elections.  End summary. 
 
 
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VOTERS REGISTRATION 
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2. (C) During a December 19 press statement, INEC Spokesman 
Okpo S. Okpo announced that 12-15 percent of the voter 
registration applications submitted during the September 
registration exercise were improper, mostly multiple 
applications. Okpo's revelation undermines prior statements 
by INEC Chairman Guobadia that the registration was 
relatively hitch-free and that all eligible Nigerians were 
able to register.  Okpo's statement was based on a partial 
review of all the applications submitted.  If this estimate 
holds true for the entire exercise, Okpo's statement is an 
implicit admission that as many as 10 million fraudulent 
applications might have been submitted. If so, a 
significant number of eligible voters could have been 
precluded from registering due to lack of registration 
forms caused by the high number of fraudulent applications. 
 
 
3. (C) The newly registered political parties were not 
appeased by Okpo's newly found candor. They complained 
INEC's "admission" was a clever subterfuge to trick people 
into believing that INEC was honest while an even more 
monumental fraud was underway. Leader of the Green Party, 
Olisa Agbakoba, told us that the Coalition of Nigerian 
Political Parties would probably file a lawsuit seeking an 
entirely new registration exercise.  The CNPP, comprised of 
twelve opposition parties, would meet within the next few 
days to decide whether to file suit. The hesitance was not 
with the suit's propriety but over its potential effect on 
the electoral schedule, he stated. 
 
 
4.  (C) Agbakoba, founder of the Nigeria's best-known human 
rights group, the Civil Liberties Organization, averred the 
Coalition possessed hard evidence that millions of voter 
cards had been hoarded by the GON and PDP. They warehoused 
the cards, promising to give a set number of cards to each 
PDP nominee at the local, state and national levels to sway 
general elections in their favor.  Knowledge of this 
improper fringe benefit was another reason the PDP 
primaries were being so hotly contested, asserted Agbakoba. 
(Comment: Agbakoba's offered no corroborating evidence and 
currently we cannot gauge the credibility of his 
allegation. On its face, such a massive fraud seems 
unlikely because the chances of disclosure are too high; 
however, Agbakoba is usually a fairly careful interlocutor. 
At the very least, If he believes this charge, we can be 
sure that other opposition politicians do as well. Comment. 
 
 
5. (C) The suit would simply add to INEC's registration 
woes. Due to INEC's lethargic bureaucracy and unforeseen 
glitches, the Commission is weeks behind schedule in 
finalizing the voters list. Originally set for release this 
month, the list will take "quite a few weeks" in the words 
of the UN election expert who works with the Commission. 
Assuming everything runs smoothly, she said, "January 15 is 
the earliest possible date" for releasing the list.  Cook 
believed that early to mid-February is more likely and we 
concur. 
 
 
6. (C) While not assuaging the new political parties, 
INEC's plans to hold a "mop up" registration in January 
could improve the quality of the registration exercise and 
incrementally increase voter confidence in INEC. INEC's 
initial plan was to conduct the supplementary registration 
process only from local government headquarters -- 774 
locations instead of the 120,000 sites used in September. 
Amenable to pressure from the political parties, INEC 
ultimately decided to conduct the supplemental registration 
at the over 8000 ward headquarters nationwide. The parties 
had complained that local government headquarters were too 
few and too far between to be accessible for many Nigerians 
during the brief, supplemental registration.  Uncertainly 
still surrounds this endeavor; although INEC plans this 
abbreviated exercise next month, it still has not received 
the extra funding to conduct it. 
 
 
7. (C) INEC has not explicitly stated whether the 
supplemental registration could affect its electoral 
timetable (para 8).  The current electoral law mandates a 
minimum of 60 days between the publication of the voters 
rolls and the conduct of any election. With all state and 
federal elections now slated for consecutive weeks in 
April, publication of the registration list, including the 
supplemental lists, must occur in February. Local 
government elections, which are run by state electoral 
commissions (SIECs) not INEC, are also governed by the 60- 
day proviso. (SIECs cannot hold elections until given 
updated lists by INEC, however.)  This schedule is tight 
and cannot accommodate much delay.  Recognizing this, INEC 
has suggested that it will seek to add more flexibility to 
the timetable by asking the National Assembly to amend the 
electoral law by shortening the 60-day waiting period. 
ELECTORAL TIMETABLE 
8. (U) On December 20, INEC published the long-awaited 
electoral timetable. Below are the major aspects of the 
schedule: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-- Collection of Forms from INEC by the Parties (December 
20 - January 4): 
 
 
 (a) Forms listing candidate's and personal particulars; 
 
 
 (b) Nomination forms December 23, 2002 - January 2003 
 
 
 -- Submission of Lists of candidates by political parties 
January 5-11, 2003; 
 
 
 -- Publication of personal particulars of candidates 
January 22, 2003; 
 
 
 -- Return of nomination forms by political parties January 
16-22, 2003; 
 
 
     -- Publication of list of nominated candidates January 11- 
18, 2003; 
 
 
 -- Substitution of candidates February 25-March 4, 2003; 
and 
 -- Publication of notice of poll March 20, 2003 
 
 
 ELECTIONS 
 
 
 - National Assembly April 12, 2003 
 - Presidential/Gubernatorial April 19, 2003 
 - Possible run-off April 26, 2003 
 - Possible second run-off April 29, 2003 
 - State House of Assembly May 3, 2003 
 
 
9. (SBU) The new political parties railed that the December 
and January deadlines for selecting candidates and 
presenting INEC with information about the candidates 
placed unrealistic time constraints on the parties. 
Predictably, the parties claimed that INEC was slave to a 
script favoring the PDP.  However, INEC did respond when 
the parties criticized the initial electoral schedule INEC 
proposed. That INEC proposal led with the presidential 
elections. INEC shifted the presidential contest toward the 
end of the elections sequence after the smaller opposition 
parties protested. They cried that the bandwagon effect 
from the presidential elections would influence the 
subsequent contests and compel voters toward the winning 
party. 
 
 
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ELECTION OBSERVERS 
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10.  (C) Based on her recent conversations with Guobadia, 
UN elections expert Margaret Cook told us that the MFA 
would issue invitations to potential foreign observers. 
The invitations are expected to go to foreign missions, 
international organizations and private organizations.  No 
list has been developed, though, and she advised that any 
interested party not in receipt of the invitation should 
contact either INEC or the MFA.  She said that she believed 
the list would be "fairly comprehensive" with regards to 
foreign missions and should include major international 
organizations such as the UN, EU and AU. INEC had informed 
us that invitations would be sent by last week.  However, 
they were not, and INEC has not provided a new date. 
 
 
11. (C) Comment: Today's INEC is much less sanguine about 
elections monitors than the 1999 INEC.  The announcement 
that observers will be invited but the delay in sending the 
invitations could well be a conscious passive-aggressive 
tack.  INEC and the GON may be stalling the invitations for 
as long as possible in order to discourage and minimize the 
number of observers.  Not many organizations have the 
capacity to quickly field observer teams if invitations are 
received too late in the electoral cycle. End Comment. 
 
 
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FOR THE LACK OF MONEY 
--------------------- 
 
 
12. (SBU) Lack of funding continues to be a stumbling 
block. Despite approval of INEC's 27 billion Naira 
allocation (USD 200 million), INEC has not received the 
actual funding to date. INEC states that it cannot begin to 
order crucial material such as ballot paper and ballot 
boxes until it actually receives the funds.  Moreover, it 
appears that INEC has not even made much headway in 
determining the design of the paper, a task that has been 
complicated by the advent of so many new parties. 
 
 
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MEANWHILE... 
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13. (U) The major parties are moving forward with their 
nominating processes, putting both INEC and the smaller 
parties under pressure.  However, unresolved rifts within 
the ANPP (the rump APP continues to protest) and protests 
against results in certain gubernatorial and senatorial 
primaries provide fuel for injunction requests and other 
legal challenges, as well as a risk of renewed electoral 
violence. 
ANDREWS