US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3372

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 003372 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
 
E.O.12958: DECL: 12/23/07 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, SOCI, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: DECEMBER POLITICAL UPDATE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE TIM ANDREWS. REASONS 1.5 (B) and 
(D). 
 
 
1.  (U) This periodic update for political events in 
Nigeria includes items of interest from recent weeks. 
Topics covered in this edition include: 
 
 
-- INEC: 30 Political Associations for Registration 
-- Cabinet Shake-Up 
-- Rimi and Others Sue the PDP 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
OPENING THE POLITICAL SPACE: 30 NEW POLTIICAL PARTIES 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
2.  (U) Pursuant to the Supreme Court decision that 
previous guidelines for registering political parties 
were unconstitutional and too stringent, the 
Independent National Election Commission (INEC) 
begrudgingly registered 24 new parties in December. 
The new parties are: 
 
 
National Conscience Party (NCP), 
People's Redemption Party (PRP), 
Movement for Democracy and Justice (MDJ), 
National Reformation Party (NRP), 
All Peoples Liberation Party (APLP), 
Better Nigeria Progressive Party (BNPP), 
Community Party of Nigeria (CPN), 
Democratic Alternative (DA), 
Justice Party (JP), 
Liberal Democratic Party of Nigeria (LDPN), 
Masses Movement of Nigeria (MMN), 
National Action Council (NAC), 
National Mass Movement of Nigeria (NMMN), 
New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), 
New Democrats (ND), 
Nigeria Advance Party (NAP), 
Nigerian Peoples Congress (NPC), 
Party for Social Democracy (PSD), 
Peoples Mandate Party (PMP), 
Peoples Salvation Party (PSP), 
Progressive Action Congress (PAC), 
Action Renaissance Party (ARP), 
United Democratic Party (UDP), and 
Green Party of Nigeria (GPN). 
 
 
3. (SBU) Many of these parties are insignificant and 
barely exist outside the imagination of their 
founders.  However, some are headed by respected 
politicians such as former Kaduna Governor Balarabe 
Musa (PRP), former Police Inspector M. D. Yusufu 
(MDJ), human rights firebrand Gani Fawahenmi (NCP), 
and perennial presidential contestant Tunji 
Braithwaite (NAP).  Well-known human rights attorney 
Olisa Agbakoba, a long-shot presidential candidate in 
the PDP, jumped to the Green Party when it was allowed 
to register.  None of these parties have a chance of 
capturing the Presidency, and few have any chance of 
winning many seats in State Assemblies, to say nothing 
of the National Assembly. 
 
 
4. (C) However, the inclusion of these parties 
represents an opening of the political space. For many 
Nigerians the new parties symbolize a possible 
alternative to the monetized politics of the major 
parties. Now less-affluent but more ideologically 
oriented politicians can head parties and use these 
parties as their platforms to address the public. Some 
of these players and their parties have committed 
pockets of followers, albeit relatively small, in key 
areas. They might affect numerous local government 
races and perhaps have limited impact in some state 
level races. Most of these parties are Southern-based. 
The five to seven best-organized new parties are 
discussing an electoral alliance under the rubric of 
the Coalition of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP). 
 
 
5. (C) The danger always exists that proliferation of 
parties will confuse the electorate or encourage 
ethnic or regional politics. This was the rationale 
used in the recent past to thwart registration of 
these parties. However, most Nigerians welcomed the 
registration of the parties. They see it as a vehicle 
to improve grassroots participation. The advent of 
these parties should engender a greater sense of 
freedom of association and foster the perception that 
politics need not be the exclusive reserve of the 
wealthy. Additionally, pressure from the new parties 
might help make INEC more transparent in its electoral 
preparations. 
 
 
6. (C) Cynical observers claim registration of the new 
parties was not based on principle but expediency. 
They contend the Presidency and PDP wanted to increase 
the number of parties to fragment and dilute the 
opposition. This argument has some merit and cannot be 
completely ignored. Conventional wisdom within the PDP 
is that the increase in parties favors them. However, 
the PDP gaining advantage from this is not entirely 
certain. Much will depend on the candidates these 
parties may present and how they match up with PDP 
candidates as well as the candidates from the other 
previously registered parties, particularly the main 
opposition party, the ANPP. 
 
 
---------------- 
CABINET SHAKE-UP 
---------------- 
 
 
7. (C) President Obasanjo and the Federal Executive 
Council (FEC) named new ministers to replace those who 
resigned to participate in the upcoming elections. 
Controversial Minister of Works and Housing Chief Tony 
Anenih resigned to concentrate on his responsibilities 
as Deputy National Coordinator of the Obasanjo/Atiku 
reelection campaign. Minister of State Garba Madaki 
replaces Anenih at the helm of Works and Housing. 
Anenih's removal was one of the conditions Vice 
President Atiku and former Head of State Babangida had 
given to Obasanjo for supporting his reelection. While 
intervening events make Babangida's support unlikely, 
Anenih's resignation probably has made Atiku more 
comfortable about remaining on the Obasanjo ticket. 
Clearly there was no love lost between Atiku and 
Anenih. That Anenih now serves directly under Atiku, 
the de facto campaign manager, compounds the former 
minister's diminution. 
 
 
8. (C) Internal Affairs Minister Sunday Afolabi also 
quit to join the reelection campaign. Minister of 
State Mohammed Shata replaced him. (Afolabi is from 
the Southwest and is expected to work on assuring 
Obasanjo's base among the Yorubas.)  Minister of Power 
and Steel Dr. Segun Agagu resigned to run for governor 
in Ondo State. His replacement is a fellow Yoruba, Olu 
Agunloye.  Minister of Commerce Alhaji Mustapha Bello 
will contest the gubernatorial election in Niger 
State. Bellow was replaced by Minister of State for 
Water Resources, Precious Ngele. Current Niger State 
Governor Kure, although in the PDP, is a Babangida 
acolyte.  There was speculation that the contest 
between Kure and Bello could turn into a proxy war for 
Babangida and Obasanjo. However, true to the policy of 
supporting incumbent PDP governors, public statements 
from the Presidency have been supportive of Kure and 
silent about Bello.  Meanwhile, Minister of Finance 
Adamu Ciroma retains his portfolio despite his nominal 
duties as the Obasanjo/Atiku campaign national 
coordinator. 
 
 
----------------- 
RIMI SUES THE PDP 
----------------- 
 
 
9. (U) Former Kano State Governor and long-shot PDP 
presidential aspirant Abubakar Rimi has lodged two 
legal complaints against his party. Joined by fellow 
long-shot candidate Barnabas Gemade, Rimi complains 
that the decision to zone the presidency to the South 
contravened the party constitution. PDP Chairman Audu 
Ogbeh, however, might have taken some of the wind from 
this complaint by explaining that the decision to zone 
the presidency to the three Southern political zones 
was not final until approved by the party's National 
Executive Committee. (Both Rimi and Gemade would be 
eliminated if the presidency were zoned to the South. 
Likewise, VP Atiku would be foreclosed as well. 
Obasanjo and his most potent primary opposition, Alex 
Ekwueme are both Southerners.) 
 
 
10. (C) Rimi's suit contesting the allocation of 
voting delegates to the national convention is perhaps 
even more important. This suit seeks to overturn a 
2001 amendment to the PDP constitution. The amendment 
makes most classes of presidential appointees 
(presidential advisors, ambassadors, heads of 
parastatals, etc.) voting delegates at the national 
convention that will select the party's presidential 
candidate. Given the swollen number of advisors and 
others appointees, this amendments provides Obasanjo 
the very significant lead in recapturing the 
nomination. (Comment: While motivated by selfish 
reasons, Rimi's suits, if successful, would inject 
greater openness into the PDP's presidential selection 
process. Rimi's suits are not logically consistent. On 
one hand, he grouses that zoning contravenes the party 
constitution. In the second suit, be asserts that the 
party constitution is wrong. The possibility of 
winning either argument is uncertain but chances are 
the courts will not let Rimi have it both ways. End 
Comment.) 
 
 
11. (U) The party constitution also gives similar 
favor to state governors.  Due to this provision and 
other alleged irregularities, a group of non-incumbent 
gubernatorial contestants in the PDP successfully won 
a temporary injunction in early December stopping the 
party's gubernatorial primaries. However, the Chief 
Justice of the Federal High Court in Abuja reportedly 
quashed the injunction on December 20, giving the PDP 
a green light to conduct the gubernatorial caucuses. 
ANDREWS