US embassy cable - 02ANKARA9109

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 009109 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL 
JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, TU, Press Summaries 
SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT 
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2002 
 
 
THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE 
THEMES: 
 
 
HEADLINES 
BRIEFING 
EDITORIAL OPINION 
                         ------- 
 
 
HEADLINES 
 
 
MASS APPEAL 
11 camps for 500,000 refugees - Hurriyet 
Government wants to gain time on Iraq - Sabah 
Despite warnings, Bush determined to hit Iraq - Turkiye 
Ankara decides on Iraq: Count us in! - Milliyet 
 
 
OPINION MAKERS 
U.S. inspects bases; Iraqi opposition in town - Cumhuriyet 
NSC to say final word on Iraq - Zaman 
Ankara cautious on Iraq - Yeni Safak 
State leaders discuss U.S. demands - Radikal 
Constitutional package unchanged, back to Presidency - Yeni 
Safak 
 
 
FINANCIAL JOURNALS 
Markets uneasy over Iraq - Dunya 
Saddam seeking human shields - Finansal Forum 
 
 
BRIEFING 
 
 
Iraq: Tuesday's papers report that no political decision 
came out of the government leaders' meeting on Iraq, which 
was also attended by the Chief of General Staff.  Dailies 
expect the position of Turkey to be shaped at Friday's 
National Security Council meeting.  However, reports claim 
that the leaders have agreed to join the U.S.-led operation 
against Iraq.  "Vatan" daily speculates that, cornered 
between U.S. pressure and the party grassroots, the AKP 
wants to avoid the impression of being the `gendarme' of 
Western countries against the Muslim world.  The government 
is inclined to seek parliamentary approval to open bases and 
send troops to Northern Iraq, reports say.  Dailies and 
broadcasters report that U.S. experts have started 
inspections on Turkish air bases.  Northern Iraqi Kurdish 
leaders Barzani and Talabani are in Ankara today to hold 
meetings with the MFA, Turkish intelligence, and the Prime 
Minister.  Prime Minister Gul and opposition CHP leader 
Baykal will discuss Iraq at a meeting today.  On Wednesday, 
the parliament will vote on the extension of ONW for another 
six months.  On Thursday, the Supreme Military Council will 
convene.  "Hurriyet" reports that Prime Minister Gul will 
visit Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to feel 
the pulse on Iraq.  "Milliyet" features a headline 
containing Turkey's `conditions' regarding the Iraq war: 
-- Ankara is against deployment of large numbers of U.S. 
troops in Turkey.  Small special teams are acceptable. 
-- Ankara wants Muslim countries in the international 
coalition against Iraq. 
-- A UN or NATO decision is essential for military action 
against Baghdad. 
-- Missile defense systems should be established at bases to 
be used by the U.S. 
Dailies also believe that Turkey will demand 12 billion 
dollars in `reparations' for possible war losses. 
"Hurriyet" claims that Turkey will set up eleven camps in 
Northern Iraq to accommodate an estimated 500,000 refugees. 
 
 
Wolfowitz op-ed: "Radikal" carries an op-ed on Iraq by 
Deputy SecDef Wolfowitz in its entirety as it appeared in 
the Washington Post on December 23. The op-ed is captioned 
"To Strike or Not To Strike." The paper highlights 
Wolfowitz's comments that the world has grave concerns that 
Saddam might use his most dreadful weapons.  Wolfowitz 
writes that the U.S. must take the potential risks into 
account when considering an action against Iraq. 
 
 
Election in Siirt: The CHP has criticized the Supreme 
Election Board (YSK) for delaying the election calendar in 
Siirt province, where poll results were canceled by the 
board on December 3.  Reports speculate that the AKP is 
unsure about a clear victory for Erdogan in Siirt, who needs 
to enter the parliament before taking over the post of Prime 
Minister. 
 
 
Constitutional changes package: The parliament's 
Constitutional Commission on Monday reviewed the 
constitutional amendment package that would allow AKP leader 
Erdogan to be elected to parliament.  The Commission re- 
approved the package without changes, papers report.  The 
parliament will vote on the package on Friday.  President 
Sezer vetoed the package last week, saying it was designed 
to address Erdogan's personal situation.  Deputy Prime 
Minister Yalcinbayir reportedly said that AKP does not want 
to challenge the President, but rather expand democratic 
rights for all. 
 
 
Zeugma/HP's Packard: "Hurriyet" criticizes HP's David 
Packard for "forgetting his promise" of 100 million dollars 
in financial support to excavate the ancient city of Zeugma, 
in Turkey's Gaziantep province.  Only 20 percent of the city 
has been excavated, and work has been halted after Packard's 
initial grant of 5 million dollars was spent, Hurriyet 
complains.  The paper says that U.S. Ambassador to Ankara 
Robert Pearson has sent a letter to Packard, urging him to 
continue to support the Zeugma project.  Hurriyet says that 
a response is being awaited from Packard. 
 
 
 
 
EDITORIAL OPINION:  Iraq 
 
 
"The critical questions in the Turkish-American bargain" 
Sedat Ergin notes some disagreements between Turkey and the 
US in mass appeal Hurriyet (12/24): "The US is waiting for a 
clear decision by Ankara before making its final plans about 
Iraq.  Ankara, on the other hand wants some clarification 
from  Washington on some critical points before making its 
decisions.  Specifically, Turkey is concerned about the 
following points: 
- What kind of compensation plan the Bush administration is 
willing to commit itself to on behalf of Turkey.  The 
Turkish Treasury will need a huge amount of cash to cope 
with the shock effects of the war. President Bush has 
offered Turkey a cash amount of just 3.5 billion dollars 
over two years.  The amount is considered `extremely 
insufficient' here in Ankara.  Furthermore, there is no 
guarantee of Congressional approval for a compensation plan 
for Turkey. 
-  The uncertainties regarding northern Iraq, as well as US 
plans for the post-Saddam era in Iraq. The US is planning to 
implement a federal structure in the post-Saddam era, and 
its design is not acceptable to Turkey.  Turkey wants to 
take some protective measures to control an expected refugee 
influx from northern Iraq in the case of a military 
operation.  The US, however, is opposed to these measures. 
It should come as no surprise that the number of Turkish 
troops deployed in northern Iraq will increase considerably 
in case of a war. . The task of Turkish troops will not be 
limited to stopping the refugees. By stationing troops in 
northern Iraq, Turkey wants to be able to prevent `undesired 
developments' there.  Turkey also wants to have a say in the 
shaping of Iraq's future. . Washington plans to implement a 
three-party cooperation mechanism in northern Iraq together 
with Turkey and the Kurdish groups under US supervision. 
Turkey, however, is against such a model, in which the 
Turkish army and Kurdish groups are given equal power. If a 
three-party mechanism is to be applied in northern Iraq, 
Turkey wants to play the leading role. Turkey is aware of 
the fact that its role in Northern Iraq will determine its 
status at the table for discussing the future of Iraq in the 
post-Saddam period." 
 
 
"The war is in February" 
Yilmaz Oztuna opined in the conservative-mass appeal Turkiye 
(12/24): "The war against Iraq will begin soon, because the 
US has already obtained, however reluctantly, support from 
the six Gulf countries as well as Turkey and the UK. 
Sometime in February, Turkey will find itself in the midst 
of a war, which is very likely to start with heavy air 
bombardment. . Through its colossal military power, the US 
will topple Saddam, many innocent people will be killed, 
and, in the end, the four-star American generals will 
station themselves in Baghdad.  A similar scenario will then 
be implemented for Iran, until all the Gulf-oil reserves are 
distributed under US supervision." 
 
 
PEARSON