US embassy cable - 02COLOMBO2341

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002341 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  12-23-12 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PHUM, EAID, CE, NO, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Peace Process Update:  Reports of ceasefire 
violations spike down; One-year milestone for process 
 
Refs:  Colombo 2337, and previous (Notal) 
 
(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews 
the following: 
 
- Reports of ceasefire violations spike way down 
 
- Criticism of government and Norwegians over import of 
radio equipment for LTTE continues to flare 
 
- GSL-LTTE meeting in London canceled, but January talks 
in Bangkok still on 
 
- Although tension in party does not abate, Muslim 
leader Rauf Hakeem seems back on top -- for now 
 
- The Flavor of the Peace Process:  December 24 marks 
one-year milestone 
 
============================== 
Reported Violations Spike Down 
============================== 
 
2.  (U) The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) has 
announced that reported violations of the February 
ceasefire accord have spiked way down.  The Norwegian- 
run SLMM stated that there had been a total of 146 
reports in November of which 33 were against the Sri 
Lankan government and 113 against the Liberation Tigers 
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  The November total compares with 
the average of about 300-400 alleged violations reported 
to the SLMM during each of the previous months.  Of the 
113 reported violations attributed to the LTTE, the SLMM 
announced that 38 involved the forcible recruitment of 
children for the Tigers' armed forces.  The SLMM 
continued to investigate these reports, as well as a 
number of others involving the LTTE.  In terms of the 33 
reports involving the GSL, the SLMM had investigated 
them and determined that none were violations. 
 
3.  (SBU) (((Note:  An important ceasefire-related issue 
under in-depth discussion between the two sides lately 
involves the GSL military's "high security zones" in the 
north/east, and their impact on the local populace. 
Late last week, the GSL handed over a proposal regarding 
high security zone adjustments to the SLMM.  This 
proposal is being provided to the LTTE for review.))) 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT:  The latest news re reported violations 
is a positive development.  At this point, both sides 
seem to be honoring the ceasefire accord more than at 
any point since it was signed in February.  The bad news 
is that the LTTE still appears to be involved in the 
forcible recruitment of children.  UNICEF is working 
with the LTTE on this issue and reports that the group 
is being cooperative, but that much progress needs to be 
made.  END COMMENT. 
 
======================================== 
Critics Lash Out over Equipment for LTTE 
======================================== 
 
5.  (SBU) Critics continue to lash out at the GSL and 
the Norwegian facilitators over the recent import of 
radio equipment for the LTTE.  (Note:  At the 
government's request, the Norwegian Embassy imported 
LTTE-purchased radio equipment in a diplomatic 
consignment.  After the equipment was handed over to the 
GSL, the equipment was sent to the LTTE's "Voice of the 
Tigers'" radio station -- See Reftel.)  In a December 20 
press briefing, a People's Alliance (PA) spokesman 
accused the GSL of "treason," asserting that the 
government should not have allowed the equipment to be 
brought in the country.  In addition, spokesmen for the 
radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party have 
denounced the Norwegian role, claiming that the GoN had 
abused its diplomatic status by allowing the equipment 
to be brought in duty free.  The JVP is planning to hold 
a demonstration in front of the Norwegian Embassy late 
December 23. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  This issue does not seem to be dying. 
While emanating from the usual anti-peace process 
sources, the attacks on the Norwegians are 
getting increasingly vitriolic.  In particular, 
Norwegian Ambassador Jon Westborg has taken some harsh 
hits, with many of the attacks taking personal aim at 
him.  Despite the fact that it asked the GoN to become 
involved in the first place, the government has not 
rushed in to defend the Norwegians, as of yet. 
Addressing this point, Tomas Stangeland, poloff at the 
Norwegian Embassy, told us today that he thought the 
government would issue a statement clarifying the matter 
soon.  He noted that it was difficult for the GoN to say 
anything in its defense until the GSL explained its key 
role in public.  END COMMENT. 
 
========================== 
Meeting in London Canceled 
========================== 
 
7.  (C) A meeting between G.L. Peiris, a senior 
government minister, and Anton Balasingham, the chief 
negotiator for the LTTE, was canceled last week.  The 
meeting was supposed to take place in London on 
December 18, but Balasingham canceled at the last minute 
for "health" reasons.  Tomas Stangeland of the Norwegian 
Embassy told us it was indeed possible that Balasingham 
was ill.  (Note:  Balasingham has had very serious 
health problems for years.)  According to Stangeland, 
however, it also seemed a real possibility that 
Balasingham was upset with a recent letter from the 
Japanese government to the LTTE reviewing how the GoJ 
disburses development assistance.  Stangeland said the 
GoJ letter apparently made it clear that funding had to 
go to the GSL first -- and only then out to projects in 
LTTE-controlled areas.  (Note:  The LTTE believes that 
it should control the funding to the full extent 
possible.) 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  The cancellation of the London meeting 
was unfortunate -- Stangeland said the meeting would 
have been useful in mapping out next steps in the peace 
process.  That said, despite continued discussion about 
the nature of aid disbursements, the fourth session of 
GSL-LTTE talks slated to take place in Thailand from 
January 6-9 still seems to be on track.  END COMMENT. 
 
=================================== 
Hakeem Seems Back on Top -- For Now 
=================================== 
 
9.  (C) The saga involving splits in the Sri Lanka 
Muslim Congress (SLMC) shows little sign of abating 
soon.  Both party leader (and GSL minister) Rauf Hakeem 
and his SLMC opponents continue to hit out at each other 
in almost daily attacks.  Hakeem insists that he has 
suspended the rebels from party activities and he is 
threatening to expel them altogether if they do not toe 
the line.  In the meantime, the rebels assert that 
Hakeem has been removed as leader and expelled from the 
party.  Of late, Hakeem appears to be gaining the edge 
in the fight.  On December 13, he won a court case, 
which turned down a demand from the rebels that he be 
enjoined from acting as party leader.  In addition, 
Hakeem seems to be having some success on the stump in 
uniting the rest of the SLMC against the rebels.  While 
the two sides remain at loggerheads, various efforts are 
under way to mediate the conflict. 
 
10.  (C) COMMENT:  Hakeem has led an effective legal and 
political counterattack against his SLMC opponents, so 
far.  He seems animated and less aloof, which has helped 
him as he fights for his political life.  His grip on 
power still seems fragile, however, and it is not clear 
how long he can keep the initiative.  Given the nasty, 
internecine struggle, it is also not clear whether 
Hakeem will be present at the fourth session of GSL-LTTE 
talks.  (Note:  Hakeem was present throughout the first 
two rounds as a member of the government's team, but had 
to leave suddenly in the middle of the third session in 
early December because of his political troubles back 
home.)  END COMMENT. 
 
================== 
One-Year Milestone 
================== 
 
11.  (U) The peace process is about to celebrate its 
one-year anniversary.  December 24 will mark one-year 
since the start of the process.  (Note:  At midnight on 
December 24, 2001, both sides joined in unilateral, 
ceasefires renewable on a month-by-month basis.  In 
February 2002, both sides reached agreement on the 
ceasefire accord now in place.)  With much of the 
country effectively shutting down for the holiday 
season, few festivities marking the one-year anniversary 
of the process are planned, although some churches are 
planning to ring their bells in a salute to the 
occasion.  Neither the government, the LTTE nor the 
Norwegian facilitators are planning any official 
programs. 
 
12.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Thanks to the peace process, there 
have not been any major incidents of violence in Sri 
Lanka in the past year.  This is quite a remarkable 
achievement, given the fact that in previous years over 
66,000 thousand people were killed on the battlefield or 
in LTTE-sponsored terrorist attacks.  This iteration of 
the peace process is already the longest break in 
violence the country has experienced by far since the 
conflict began in 1983.  (Note:  The longest cessation 
of hostilities before the current process was in 1994-95 
and lasted about six months.  Breaks in the fighting in 
1987, 1990, and 2000-01 each lasted only a handful of 
months.)  END COMMENT. 
 
13.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS