US embassy cable - 02ANKARA9071

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 009071 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLADS AND J-5 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, TU 
SUBJECT: SEZER VETO CALLS SIIRT ELECTIONS INTO QUESTION 
 
 
Classified by acting Politcal Counselor Nicholas S. Kass. 
Reason: 1.5(b)(d) 
 
 
1. (C) President Sezer's Dec. 19 veto of a constitutional 
amendment package, which is designed to reinstate AK Leader 
Erdogan's political rights and clear the way for his entry 
into government (septel), calls into question the date for 
the "new" elections in Siirt Province and Erdogan's immediate 
political future. 
 
 
2. (C) Pursuant to a petition by AK, the Nov. 3 national 
election results in Siirt had been invalidated Dec. 9 by the 
Supreme Election Board (YSK), due to local electioneering 
shenaningans.  AK had seen Siirt as an opportunity to elect 
Erdogan to the Parliament, from where he could formally 
assume the duties of Prime Minister. 
 
 
3. (C) Now, however, whether Erdogan would stand for 
elections in Siirt is an open question, made more complex by 
both the veto and the evolving political situation on the 
ground there. 
 
 
-- Given the uncertainty surrounding the constitutional 
amendment package, the YSK never officially announced an 
election date and calendar, though the virtual effect of its 
Dec. 9 decision to invalidate the Siirt results was to 
establish a Feb. 9 date. 
 
 
-- The constitutional package includes a provision that would 
have pushed the Siirt poll back to March 9.  By late 
February, Erdogan's 3-year ban from "active" politics will 
have run its course, allowing him to appeal for reinstatement 
of his legal rights: enacting the package would improve 
Erdogan's prospects for success. 
 
 
-- If a referendum on the vetoed package is called by Sezer, 
its timing could be critical.  The Siirt option could be 
denied to Erdogan if the elections are held Feb. 9, without 
the adoption of constitutional changes and while Erdogan's 
ban still holds. 
 
 
-- According to press, some polls are showing Siirt voters 
are miffed that AK had the provincial election results 
annulled.  Moreover, several sources tell us CHP is trying to 
cut a deal with the pro-Kurdish DEHAP (Democratic People's 
Party), which is far and away the most popular party in the 
province. 
 
 
4. (C) AK is currently scouring the legal system for other 
ways to get Erdogan into the legislature.  According to 
press, one possibility involves amending and expanding the 
amnesty provisions in the Turkish Press Law.  AK submitted a 
draft to the TGNA President's Office Dec. 19, concerning the 
law on "postponement of court cases and punishments related 
to crimes committed through press and publications" (AKA Law 
No. 4454). 
 
 
-- AK's draft proposes that those who have been convicted, 
and who have served their sentences, for crimes under Turkish 
Penal Code Art. 312 should be treated as if they never 
committed the crime in question -- provided that they do not 
commit the same crime again before the amendment is formally 
enacted.  Erdogan was convicted and stripped of his political 
rights under art. 312 (inciting religious/ethnic hatred) in 
1999.  Current law could be read to make him ineligible to 
run for office even after his ban ends. 
 
 
-- One Parliamentary expert expressed to us his doubts that 
such a proposal would be workable absent constitutional 
amendments.  Given Sezer's veto of the constitutional package 
on grounds that it was geared toward one person -- Erdogan -- 
we expect the President would oppose such a plan. 
PEARSON