US embassy cable - 02TEGUCIGALPA3407

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 003407 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. FOR WHA, EB, AND WHA/CEN 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ECON, HO 
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE CABINET SHAKEUP IN HONDURAS AS MADURO 
LOOKS TO RECAPTURE MOMENTUM 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Larry Palmer; Reasons 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  As President Ricardo Maduro staggers to his 
first anniversary in office, there are emerging signs that he 
will make some changes in his Cabinet in an effort to 
recapture the political initiative in the country.  One 
rumored change is a new Foreign Minister.  Other more 
probable targets for turnover are the National Security, 
Education, Health, Social Investment, Environment, and 
International Foreign Assistance Coordination Ministers.  On 
the other hand, former Honduran Ambassador to the U.S. and 
current Government and Justice Minister Jorge Ramon Hernandez 
Alcerro, is poised to win broader powers and influence as he 
will be given a new office in the Casa Presidencial.  The 
conventional political wisdom is that the President must act 
now to remove ineffectual ministers and reinvigorate his 
mandate.  According to political commentators, early 
presidential campaigning will likely begin in January 2004, 
at which time the Maduro government will begin its inevitable 
slide toward lame-duck status.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) Over the last two weeks there is a growing strength to 
the rumor that current Foreign Minister Guillermo 
Perez-Cadalso Arias will leave the Foreign Ministry to become 
Rector of the National University (UNAH).  The Rector's 
position at the autonomous UNAH is a high profile and very 
political position that has been controlled by the Liberal 
Party during the last eight years.  The Nationalists are now 
poised to claim the spot.  However, there has been fierce 
politicking over who should be the favored Nationalist 
candidate.  Sources indicate that Perez-Cadalso is emerging 
as a compromise candidate who appeals to the competing 
Nationalist Party sectors.  The election for the new Rector 
could take place this week or in early January at which time 
Perez-Cadalso could leave the Foreign Ministry. 
 
3. (C) Perez-Cadalso has performed capably but without great 
fanfare at the Foreign Ministry.  He has not taken any bold 
initiatives but, while not a member of the tight Maduro inner 
circle, conscientiously carried out Maduro Administration 
foreign policies.  In particular, he has managed to lower the 
previous screeching tenor of diplomatic exchanges related to 
Honduras' border conflicts with its neighbors.  His only 
other lasting impact at the Foreign Ministry has been to 
implement a crushing 18 per cent budget reduction that has 
reduced the size of domestic and overseas diplomatic 
operations.  Perez-Cadalso has done little to help Honduras 
become a party to the seven outstanding international and OAS 
counterterrorism conventions/protocols, but he did sign an 
ICC Article 98 Agreement with the USG.  MFA DG for Foreign 
Policy, AMB Mario Fortin, acknowledged the rumors of 
Perez-Cadalso's possible departure but told PolOff December 
19 that no decision had been made yet by President Maduro to 
change the Minister of Foreign Affairs.  Among rumored 
replacements are current National Security Advisor Ramon 
Medina Luna and Government and Justice Minister Jorge Ramon 
Hernandez Alcerro. 
 
4. (C) Casa Presidencial and press reporting inform that 
Hernandez Alcerro is poised to win broader powers and 
influence as he will be given a new office in the Casa 
Presidencial.  Political Section sources say that Hernandez 
Alcerro is being brought into the Casa Presidencial to help 
manage the President's political and communications 
strategies.  He will continue to maintain his Ministerial 
portfolio but will be given new (unspecified) authority to 
manage the Administration's policy initiatives.  (COMMENT: 
If true, Hernandez Alcerro will re-assume his campaign role 
as the communications and policy czar.  In our view, 
Hernandez Alcerro is the only member of the Maduro inner 
circle who can approach the same level of confidence with the 
President that Minister of the Presidency Luis Cosenza 
maintains.  His entry into the Casa Presidencial could create 
a significant counter-weight or complement to Cosenza's role. 
 Post notes that Cosenza has seemed to struggle at times as 
Maduro's chief of staff.  We will watch closely to see how 
the presidential ambitions of these two advisors influence 
internal presidential decisionmaking.) 
 
5. (C) Ramon Medina Luna's departure from the Casa 
Presidencial and/or his National Security portfolio has been 
rumored since last July.  However, he is a charter member of 
the Maduro inner circle and, by inside accounts, continues to 
retain significant access to the President and direct 
involvement in the presidential decision-making process.  He 
is the Minister that Members of Congress most detest. 
(COMMENT:  In our view, a move to the Foreign Ministry would 
further complicate the Maduro Administration's relations with 
Congress. END COMMENT.) 
 
6. (C) The ministers most likely to be removed in the short 
time are the Education, Health, and Social Investment Fund 
(FHIS).  Education Minister Carlos Avila was recently voted 
the worst minister by the media and is a lightening rod for 
complaints by secondary schoolteachers about the Maduro 
Administration's hard-line salary negotiating tactics. 
(Maduro, however, has publicly supported Avila and extolled 
his virtues.)  The Health Minister, Elias Lizardo, while 
getting high marks for his professional approach to the 
Ministry, is being criticized for not placing more 
Nationalist party activists in Ministry positions.  Finally, 
FHIS Minister, Leony Yu-way, is viewed as not directing FHIS 
projects to Nationalist party interests in the departments. 
(According to political sources, this reticence is not a 
resistance to corruption as much as it is his unwillingness 
to treat FHIS projects as a political and legislative pork 
barrel.)  Other Ministers whose names have been the subject 
of press speculation are Environment and Natural Resources 
Minister Patricia Panting (who is the chair of the ENEE Board 
of Directors and could be chosen as a scapegoat if the GOH 
decides to overturn the results of the recent controversial 
electricity licitation) and International Foreign Assistance 
Coordination (SETCO) Brenie Matute. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT: As President Maduro staggers to his first 
anniversary in office, he is clearly grasping for a way to 
recapture the political initiative.  The conventional 
political wisdom is the President must act now to remove 
ineffectual ministers and reinvigorate his mandate.  Maduro 
recently reiterated publicly that he would regularly review 
Ministerial performance.  Two ministers (Security Ministry 
Arias and Trade Minister Handal) were forced out earlier this 
year after they were no longer producing desired results.  A 
change in some Ministers would also allow Maduro to win some 
points with Nationalists (especially in Congress) for 
responding to their criticism about the overly technocratic 
makeup of his government.  According to political 
commentators, early presidential campaigning will likely 
begin in January 2004 at which time the Maduro government 
will begin its inevitable slide toward lame-duck status. 
Given this time-frame, some advisors are suggesting that 
President Maduro cannot delay making changes to Ministers who 
are not performing well.  Maduro, himself, has fared poorly 
in popularity polls.  He states, however, that he is not 
concerned about his popularity as long as he is acting in the 
best interest of the Honduran people.  END COMMENT. 
Palmer