US embassy cable - 02AMMAN7349

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007349 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/PPD (MCGUINNESS, CBOURGEOIS), R, NEA/ARN, 
NEA/P (ACASPER) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO, PREL, KISL, JO 
SUBJECT: MEPI REACTION: AMMAN 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  THE MEPI AND SECRETARY POWELL'S SPEECH HAVE 
DOMINATED JORDANIAN EDITORIAL PAGES IN RECENT DAYS, WITH 
REACTION BEST DESCRIBED AS COMPLEX:  SOME WRITERS HAVE 
WELCOMED THE INITIATIVE, EXPRESSING A KIND OF RELIEF AT THE 
ACCURATE IDENTIFICATION OF CORE DEFICIENCIES PLAGUING ARAB 
SOCIETIES (IF MIXED WITH AN ADMITTED DEGREE OF "SHAME" THAT 
IT WAS THE U.S. THAT DID SO AND SUSPICION OF TRUE U.S. 
MOTIVES), WHILE OTHERS HAVE REJECTED THE INITIATIVE AS AN 
APPARENT U.S. PALLIATIVE MEANT TO DISTRACT ARABS FROM THE 
REAL DANGERS IN THEIR MIDST: UNLIMITED US SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL 
AND THREATS AGAINST IRAQ.  OTHER COMMENTATORS HAVE MADE THE 
POINT THAT THE INITIATIVE TEMPTS GREAT DANGER:  THAT BY 
ENCOURAGING GREATER DEMOCRACY IN THE REGION AT A TIME WHEN 
ISLAMIST MOVEMENTS ARE VIEWED AS THE BEST ORGANIZED 
POLITICAL ELEMENTS IN MANY ARAB SOCIETIES (AND FEEDING OFF 
WIDESPREAD OPPOSITION TO US POLICIES TO FURTHER ENHANCE 
THEIR POPULAR APPEAL), THE RESULT CAN ONLY BE FURTHER 
RADICALIZATION AND INSTABILITY HERE.  PRIVATELY, SOME IN THE 
BUSINESS COMMUNITY HAVE EXPRESSED DISAPPOINTMENT THAT 
SPECIAL MENTION OF JORDAN'S ONGOING ECONOMIC REFORM EFFORTS 
WERE NOT HIGHLIGHTED MORE IN THE SECRETARY'S SPEECH. 
OVERALL, THE ANNOUNCEMENT HAS ALREADY HAD THE POSITIVE 
EFFECT OF STIMULATING AN IMPORTANT DEBATE ON DEMOCRATIZATION 
AND REFORM, AS WITNESSED FIRST-HAND WHEN PAO AND USAID 
MISSION DIRECTOR PRE-BRIEFED INFLUENTIAL JORDANIAN 
COLUMNISTS PRIOR TO THE SPEECH.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  SECRETARY POWELL'S MEPI SPEECH RECEIVED FRONT-PAGE 
COVERAGE IN ALL JORDANIAN DAILIES ON FRIDAY, 12/13, AND HAS 
BEEN THE DOMINANT ISSUE IN THE EDITORIAL PAGES SINCE.  POST 
IS REPORTING SEPARATELY, IN STANDARD "MEDIA REACTION" 
FORMAT, SYNOPSES OF INDIVIDUAL OP-ED COLUMNS REGARDING THE 
MEPI ANNOUNCEMENT; THIS CABLE ATTEMPTS TO CRYSTALLIZE SOME 
OF THE PRINCIPAL COMMENTARY WE HAVE SEEN IN JORDAN ON THE 
ISSUE. 
 
3.  PA AMMAN ROLLED OUT THE MEPI LOCALLY WITH A PRE-BRIEFING 
FOR INFLUENTIAL JORDANIAN COLUMNISTS, CONDUCTED DECEMBER 12 
BY THE PAO AND USAID MISSION DIRECTOR.  THIS SESSION 
REVEALED THE MIXED VIEWS BORNE OUT IN SUBSEQUENT PUBLISHED 
COMMENTARY ON THE SPEECH.  IN GENERAL, THE COLUMNISTS WE 
BRIEFED WERE SUPPORTIVE OF US EFFORTS TO ENCOURAGE 
POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND EDUCATIONAL REFORM IN THE REGION, 
BUT EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM ABOUT HOW SUCH EFFORTS WOULD BE 
VIEWED GIVEN WIDESPREAD DISAGREEMENT WITH US POLICY TOWARD 
THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT AND IRAQ.  THE US POSITION ON THE 
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN DISPUTE WAS THE "MAGIC KEY" TO GAINING 
ACCEPTANCE FOR OTHER US INITIATIVES IN THE REGION, ONE 
COLUMNIST SAID -- A FAILURE TO MAKE CHANGES ON THAT ISSUE 
WOULD MAKE INSIGNIFICANT THE IMPACT OF THE MEPI ON BROADER 
US EFFORTS TO IMPROVE ITS IMAGE IN THE REGION.  THIS 
AUDIENCE ALSO FOCUSED ON THE PURPORTED PARADOX WHEREBY THE 
US WOULD ENCOURAGE INCREASED POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN 
COUNTRIES WHERE IT MAINTAINS FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH 
GOVERNMENTS PERCEIVED AS HOSTILE TO INCREASED POLITICAL 
OPENNESS. 
 
------------------------------------- 
FEARS OF SUCCESS:  GAINS BY ISLAMISTS 
------------------------------------- 
 
4.  THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE MEPI MIGHT LEAD TO FURTHER 
POLITICAL GAINS BY ISLAMISTS TOUCHED OFF A LIVELY DISCUSSION 
IN OUR MEETING WITH COLUMNISTS.  AS THE BEST ORGANIZED AND 
MOST RESPECTED (AMONG THE MASSES) POLITICAL MOVEMENTS AT 
PRESENT, ISLAMIST PARTIES WOULD BE THE PRINCIPAL 
BENEFICIARIES OF REAL STEPS TOWARD DEMOCRACY, SEVERAL OF 
THEM ARGUED.  IN ADDITION, "UNBALANCED" US POLICIES TOWARDS 
THE PALESTINIANS AND IRAQ ARE ONLY FUELING THIS TENDENCY AND 
BOOSTING THE CHANCES OF ISLAMIST TAKE-OVERS.  "WAS AMERICA 
AWARE OF THIS DANGER BEFORE IT DECIDED TO LAUNCH THE 
INITIATIVE?", ONE OF OUR GUESTS ASKED.  ANOTHER, A SELF- 
DESCRIBED "LIBERAL", SAID THAT THE REGION WAS IN DESPARATE 
NEED OF MORE DEMOCRACY, BUT HE FEARED THAT AMERICA'S NATURAL 
ALLIES IN THIS EFFORT (E.G., OTHER LIBERALS) WOULD SHY AWAY 
FROM EMBRACING THE INITIATIVE OUT OF DEEP-SEEDED 
DISAPPOINTMENT WITH OTHER U.S. POLICIES IN THE REGION AND 
SUSPICIONS ABOUT TRUE U.S. MOTIVES.  THIS SAME WRITER SAID 
IN A COLUMN 12/14 IN THE ARABIC DAILY AL ARAB AL YAMM:  "WE 
WELCOME THIS POSITIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE POSITION BECAUSE WE 
VALUE DEMOCRACY AND YEARN TO BE ABLE TO ENJOY IT.  WE 
CHALLENGE THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION TO IMPLEMENT THIS 
INITIATIVE AS A PACKAGE, AND WE SHALL ASSUME THAT POWELL'S 
WORDS SPRING FROM REAL CONVICTION.  BUT WE MUST REPEAT TO 
THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION FOR THE THOUSANDTH TIME THAT THE KEY 
TO GAINING THE CONFIDENCE OF THE ARAB PEOPLES IS THROUGH 
SOLVING THE PALESTINAIN PROBLEM." 
 
----------------------------------- 
REJECTIONISTS AND THE OPPOSITE VIEW 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  THE INITIATIVE HAS ALSO MET WITH OUTRIGHT REJECTION BY 
CERTAIN QUARTERS.  IN OUR BRIEFING OF COLUMNISTS, ONE WRITER 
SAID THAT "ANY NEW US ASSISTANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
INITIATIVE WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING NEXT TO THE DESTRUCTION 
YOU WILL SOON UNLEASH ON IRAQ."  THIS SAME WRITER CLAIMED AN 
INCONSISTENCY IN THE INITIATIVE'S CALL FOR GREATER POLITICAL 
PARTICIPATION, "WHILE THE US WORKS TO DRAW UP ITS OWN TERMS 
FOR SUCCESS" IN THE UPCOMING PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY 
ELECTIONS.  FOR ITS PART, THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD-AFFILIATED 
JORDANIAN "ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT" (IAF) ISSUED A STATEMENT 
DECEMBER 16 THAT READ, IN PART:  "REAL PARTNERSHIP WILL 
EMERGE ONLY WHEN ALL U.S. FORCES LEAVE OUR COUNTRIES AND 
WHEN THE UNITED STATES STOPS THREATENING US AND INCITING 
AGAINST US AND WHEN IT STOPS SUPPORTING OUR ENEMIES AND 
PROVIDING THEM WITH PROTECTION.  WE WANT DEMOCRACY AS A 
NATIONAL CHOICE, NOT AS A U.S. RECIPE." 
 
7.  ON THE OTHER HAND, WE HAVE HEARD PRIVATELY FROM BUSINESS 
AND EVEN SOME GOVERNMENT CONTACTS SOME DISAPPOINTMENT THAT 
JORDAN'S OWN ECONOMIC REFORM EFFORTS WERE NOT HIGHLIGHTED 
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SECRETARY'S SPEECH AS AN EXAMPLE 
OF THE KIND OF DIFFICULT, BUT ULTIMATELY REWARDING, STEPS 
REQUIRED TO BREAK LOOSE THE ECONOMIES OF THE REGION.  A DAY 
PRIOR TO THE SPEECH, KING ABDULLAH OFFERED STRONG PRAISE FOR 
MEPI IN REMARKS ADDRESSED VIA DIGITAL VIDEO CONFERENCE TO 
BUSINESS PEOPLE AND INVESTORS IN JORDAN, WASHINGTON AND FIVE 
ARAB CAPITALS  IN AN EVENT RELATED TO THE ONE-YEAR 
ANNIVERSARY OF THE U.S.- JORDAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT.  THE 
JORDANIAN BUSINESS COMMUNITY IS PROUD OF THE ECONOMIC GROWTH 
JORDAN HAS MANAGED TO ACHIEVE IN THE YEAR SINCE THE ENTRY- 
INTO-FORCE OF THE FTA, ESPECIALLY AS OTHER ECONOMIES IN THE 
REGION HAVE CONTINUED TO SLIDE. 
 
------------------------ 
AN OPENING OF THE DEBATE 
------------------------ 
 
8.  AMONG THE MORE POSITIVE REACTIONS WE HAVE SEEN IS A 
TREND AMONG A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE AND INFLUENTIAL OPINION 
WRITERS (AND OTHER PA CONTACTS) WHO HAVE WELCOMED THE 
OPPORTUNITY TO GET THESE ISSUES ON THE TABLE AND INTO THE 
PUBLIC DEBATE.  URAIB RINTAWI, A PROMINENT DAILY COLUMNIST 
WROTE IN AL-DUSTOOR 12/14:  "THE NEED FOR POLITICAL, 
ECONOMIC, ADMINSITRATIVE AND FISCAL REFORM IN THE ARAB WORLD 
IS REAL, EVEN IF IT IS THE AMERICANS THAT TELL US ABOUT IT. 
WE SHOULD NOT SUSPEND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS WAITING FOR A 
SOLUTION TO THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT."  SIMILARLY, IN A 
PIECE ON 12/16 IN SEMI-OFFICIAL AL-RAI, COLUMNIST JAMAL AL- 
TAHAT SAID:  "THE VALUE OF THE INITIATIVE DOES NOT LIE IN 
THE FUNDS ALLOCATED TO IT, BUT IN THE IDEA ON WHICH IT IS 
BASED.  BUT IT IS ALSO AN EXPRESSION OF A TOTAL ARAB 
FAILURE, TO THE POINT WHERE IT SEEMS THE U.S. IS SIDING WITH 
THE ARABS AGAINST THEIR OWN IGNORANCE."  AT A PA-ORGANIZED 
DISCUSSION PROGRAM FOR JORDANIAN STUDENTS ON "THE ROLE OF 
THINK TANKS IN FORMULATING U.S. FOREIGN POLICY" AT THE 
EMBASSY ON 12/16, NUMEROUS PARTICIPANTS WERE AWARE OF THE 
MEPI AND EXPRESSED INTEREST IN HOW IT MIGHT ADVANCE, FOR 
INSTANCE, OPPORTUNITIES FOR WOMEN IN JORDAN.  IN SUM, U.S. 
ENCOURAGEMENT OF ARAB REFORM STRUCK A LOUD CHORD IN JORDAN, 
EVEN IF DISTRUST OF U.S. OBJECTIVES IN THE REGION IS ALSO AN 
ISSUE IN THE DEBATE WE HAVE SPARKED. 
GNEHM