US embassy cable - 02COLOMBO2329

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002329 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, AND S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL: 12-19-12 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, SOCI, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT: Normally placid Maldivian political scene seems 
to be stirring a bit as presidential election year looms 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo 2323 
 
-      (B) Colombo 1113, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The normally placid Maldivian 
political situation is stirring a bit with the approach 
of the 2003 presidential election.  In December 16-17 
meetings in Male, polchief was told that President 
Gayoom is expected to run and win the election.  That 
said, there is some dissonance emerging, particularly 
from younger Maldivians seeking greater 
political/economic opportunities.  Islamic extremism 
remains a government concern and the Attorney General 
reviewed with polchief the status of key cases.  The 
Gayoom government appears strong at this time, but there 
is a certain lack of flexibility that might lead to 
problems for the regime down the road.  END SUMMARY. 
 
========================== 
Presidential Election Year 
========================== 
 
2.  (C) Polchief visited the Maldives, December 16-17. 
(Note:  Ref A contains a review of key bilateral issues 
discussed with GoRM officials during the visit.)  The 
normally placid Maldivian political situation seemed to 
be stirring a bit with the approach of 2003, a 
presidential election year.  Explaining the presidential 
selection system, Maldivian contacts confirmed that the 
50-member Majlis (parliament) will select a candidate 
for the next five-year term from a list of nominations 
at some point in June-July 2003.  (Note:  The Maldives 
has no political parties and candidates essentially 
nominate themselves.)  There will then be a popular 
referendum later in the year in which Maldivian citizens 
can say yes or no to the Majlis-approved candidate.  In 
practice, this candidate has never had any problems 
gaining massive support in the referendum. 
 
=============================== 
Gayoom seems Set to Run and Win 
=============================== 
 
3. (C) According to contacts, President Maumoon Abdul 
Gayoom has not yet decided whether he will be a 
candidate in 2003.  Polchief was told that there was 
little suspense over the question and that everyone 
assumed that he would be a candidate, just as he was in 
the previous five elections.  (Note:  Gayoom has been in 
power since 1978.)  There is also little doubt that 
Gayoom would win should he seek re-election.  M. 
Khankub, the Acting Indian High Commissioner, told 
polchief that Gayoom maintained strong support in a 
Majlis stocked with family members and close friends. 
While the Majlis did contain elements that were not 
particularly friendly to Gayoom, Khankub said he had no 
doubt that the Majlis would select Gayoom as the 
official candidate for the referendum if he asked it to. 
Contacts invariably agreed with Khanbub's assessment, 
noting that Gayoom faced no one of stature who could 
reasonably be expected to challenge him. 
 
======================== 
Some Dissonance Emerging 
======================== 
 
4.  (C) Although Gayoom's political position seems 
strong at this time, there are some glimmers of dissent 
emerging.  Some of the dissent is from younger family 
members of officials who are part of the government's 
inner circle.  An article in a weekly magazine called 
"Monday Times" recently called into question whether 
Gayoom should run for president again, for example.  The 
article noted that Gayoom had been in power for almost 
25 years and that it might be time for flesh blood. 
(Note: After printing this article, the "Monday Times" 
has not been published and is effectively defunct.  See 
the Attorney General's comments below re this matter.) 
According to Khankub and others, Mohammed Bushry, the 
editor of "Monday Times," has long made it a practice to 
go around Male criticizing the government.  Because 
Bushry is the son-in-law of Mohammed Zahir Hussain, the 
Minister of Youth and Sports, his voice has special 
resonance. Another influential person vocalizing gentle 
criticism of the government is Shaheen Hameed, a lawyer 
who is a son of the Majlis Speaker and a nephew of 
President Gayoom.  Hameed is said to want the government 
to open up and allow more democratization. 
 
================= 
The "Youth Bulge" 
================= 
 
5.  (C) More broadly, the government faces a challenge 
in dealing with the Maldives' "youth bulge."  Minh Pham 
(Amcit--pls protect), resident coordinator of the UN 
office in Male, told polchief that there were signs that 
the GoRM was facing real problems assimilating the over 
55 percent of Maldivians who were 20 years or younger. 
While the Maldivian economy has grown steadily, there is 
still a great deal of underemployment and some 
unemployment.  High school students focus too much on 
liberal arts-related -- as opposed to vocational -- 
subjects, and they find their expectations dashed when 
they cannot get the type of job they feel qualified for. 
University graduates often experience the same 
frustration when they return to the country. 
(Note:  The Maldives does not have a university itself, 
so Maldivian students have to travel overseas.) 
 
6.  (C) Pham and other contacts agreed that many younger 
Maldivians also wanted the country's semi-autocratic 
political system to open up and allow real democracy, 
including political parties.  There was a growing chorus 
of complaints that political and economic power was 
concentrated in too few hands, leading to widespread 
corruption.  Pham commented that the GoRM was aware that 
it had to work harder to earn the support of youth. 
(Note:  Pham is right that the GoRM is aware of the 
problem:  Many GoRM officials have mentioned to us that 
the government has to do more for the younger 
generation.) 
 
=============================== 
Concern about Islamic Extremism 
=============================== 
 
7.  (C) Islamic extremism also remains a government 
concern.  Most contacts downplayed the seriousness of 
any such extremism in the Maldives, stressing that the 
government would act to prevent the formation of an 
Islamist movement or cells in decisive fashion.  In a 
December 16 meeting, Attorney General Mohamed Munnavvar 
reviewed with polchief the status of the following two 
legal cases involving allegations of religious-based 
extremism: 
 
-- Munavvar confirmed that Mohammed Zaki, Ahammaadhee 
(one name only), and Ibrahim Luthfee, all Maldivian 
nationals, had been convicted of subversion in July and 
sentenced to terms ranging from 15 to 25 years in 
prison.  According to GoRM information, the three worked 
together in a business involving computers, and traveled 
back-and-forth between Malaysia and the Maldives.  The 
objective of the group, according to Munavvar, was to 
undermine President Gayoom's government and replace it 
with some sort of Islamist regime. 
 
-- Munavvar also confirmed that Ibrahim Fareed, a Muslim 
cleric from Male was under arrest.  Fareed would be 
tried soon on charges of disturbing "religious harmony." 
Munavvar thought that Fareed would probably be convicted 
and sentenced to four years imprisonment.  He said 
Fareed's offense involved repeated sermons in which he 
asserted that the government was not following Islamic 
law.  It was not clear whether Fareed had international 
connections, but he had studied in Qatar.  (Note:  With 
the Maldives lacking higher education facilities, the 
government remains worried that too many students travel 
to the Middle East, Pakistan, and Malaysia to attend 
religious schools.  The GoRM believes these students may 
pick up extremist thinking at such schools.) 
 
8. (C) Polchief also asked Munnavvar about the closure 
of the "Monday Times" magazine.  He denied that the 
magazine had been banned, but he admitted that the 
government had urged its publisher not to print it any 
longer.  Munnavar noted that the magazine was 
consistently anti-government in tone, and that it was 
often hostile to the U.S.  (Note:  In another matter 
involving the media, polchief was told by sources that 
"Sandhaanu," an anti-GoRM, anti-U.S. website, was 
impossible to access in the Maldives.  The government 
had acted to block access to the site, according to 
these sources.) 
 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
9.  (C) There is little doubt that the Gayoom regime 
remains strong.  Gayoom, his family, and his allies hold 
virtually all of the top government jobs, and they also 
control most of the lucrative commercial enterprises. 
Despite some bubbling up of dissent, Gayoom also remains 
personally popular, with many Maldivians appreciating 
the moderate direction he has steered the country in the 
past 24 years.  There remains a certain lack of 
flexibility that might lead to problems for the regime 
down the road, however.  A brittle response to the so 
far gentle requests for further democratization could 
provoke opposition, for example.  A failure to provide 
opportunities that meet the rising expectations of the 
younger generation could also spark problems.  It is 
possible that some of these issues could come to a head 
in the coming election year, but, unless he mishandles 
the situation, Gayoom's grip on power seems solid into 
the foreseeable future.  END COMMENT. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS