US embassy cable - 02HARARE2829

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002829 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI LEVELS ACCUSATIONS AGAINST BRITAIN AND 
SOUTH AFRICA 
 
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington.  Reasons: 1.5 ( 
B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C)  In a move that could create quite a firestorm, 
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai 
issued a press statement on December 18 accusing the British 
and South African governments of working in cahoots with 
certain elements of ZANU-PF to maintain the ruling party's 
hold on power.  In his statement, Tsvangirai said "...a cabal 
within ZANU-PF, working with some businessmen, have hatched a 
plan to protect Mugabe and his regime, for political 
convenience, through a further militarization of Zimbabwe. 
One Colonel Dyke (sic) and his business associates are being 
used to promote an agenda that seeks to legitimize the rogue 
regime.  The names of (Speaker of Parliament and ZANU-PF 
Secretary of Administration) Emmerson Mnangagwa and 
 
SIPDIS 
(Commander of the Defense Forces) General Zvinavashe keep on 
coming up in this dirty plan which we are told was endorsed 
by ZANU-PF, the British and the South Africans."  Tsvangirai 
goes on to say that this effort is intended to be 
kick-started by a meeting between himself and Robert Mugabe 
outside the country, but warns that "the Anglo-South African 
plan will fail to take off if it remains predicated on the 
desire to legitimize the illegitimate Mugabe regime. 
 
2.  (C)  Comment:  Tsvangirai clearly has heard of efforts by 
several different parties to broker a political way forward 
and has assumed they are all part and parcel of the same 
initiative.  It is unclear why he decided to shine the public 
spotlight on these efforts now.  We surmise that he wanted to 
avoid being presented with a political solution that involved 
token MDC membership in a ZANU-PF government as a fait 
accompli, and being portrayed as the intransigent party for 
refusing to endorse such an approach.  It will be interesting 
to see how the Zimbabwean and South African governments react 
to Tsvangirai's statement.  What seems a likely consequence 
is that South Africa and other potential political brokers 
might pull back from peace-making efforts in the near-term. 
End Comment. 
 
South African efforts on Zimbabwe 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.  (C) Prior to the issuance of Tsvangirai's statement, his 
senior advisor, Gandi Mudzingwa, received a call from 
President Mbeki's office the night of December 17, asking 
whether Tsvangirai was prepared to travel outside of Zimbabwe 
to meet with President Mugabe.  The caller said the SAG could 
arrange for the temporary return of Tsvangirai's passport, 
seized when the MDC leader was charged with treason for 
allegedly planning Mugabe's assassination.   Mudzingwa 
subsequently sought additional details from the intelligence 
chief at the South African High Commission in Harare, who 
said he was not fully briefed on this initiative.  The South 
African intelligence officer, however, reported that Foreign 
Minister Zuma was planning a trip to Harare in the next week 
or two to meet with Tsvangirai and Emmerson Mnangagwa. 
 
4.  (C) Meanwhile, we know that Father Fidelis Mukonori, who 
has on several past occasions attempted to broker dialogue 
between President Mugabe and the MDC, has once again begun to 
feel out both sides on their willingness to talk.  He has 
not, however, put a concrete proposal on the table.  Mukonori 
had not spoken with senior MDC leaders in quite some time 
until contacting Mudzingwa to arrange a meeting on December 
18.  We will get a readout of that conversation and report it 
septel. 
 
SULLIVAN