US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3331

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 003331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, DAN EPSTEIN 
USAID/W FOR AFR/WA, ERNA KERST, MICHAEL KARBELING 
LAGOS FOR CONSUL GENERAL 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AID 
SUBJECT: USAID ADMINISTRATOR ANDREW S. NATSIOS VISIT 
TO NIGERIA 
 
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I.  SUMMARY: 
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1.  (U) Mr. Andrew S. Natsios, Administrator, visited 
Abuja, Nigeria, from November 18-21, 2002.  Mr. 
Natsios was accompanied by Ms. Kate Almquist, Special 
Assistant and Mr. Greg Loos, Education Team Leader, 
EGAT. The purpose of the Administrator's visit to 
Nigeria was to attend the Global Education For All 
Initiative (EFA) Second High-level Group Meeting, 
chaired by the UNESCO Director-General and hosted by 
President Olusegun Obasanjo.  Mr. Natsios met the key 
government and political leadership of Nigeria, 
including President Obasanjo, National Security 
Advisor, the Minister of Education, Chairman of the 
Nigerian Action Committee on AIDS (NACA), Special 
Advisor on Budgetary Matters, Representatives of 
registered political parties, Representatives of 
selected unregistered political associations, declared 
and undeclared candidates contesting the upcoming 
elections, Chairman of the Independent National 
Electoral Commission, and non-governmental 
organizations. He also met and briefed the press, 
visited the USAID Nigeria office to meet and address 
the staff, had talks over lunch with senior staff and 
dinner with USDH and USPSC employees prior to 
departure. We also managed to squeeze in a mini-tour 
of Abuja. 
 
 
2.  (U) The original program included a visit to Kano, 
the largest city in northern Nigeria to view USAID 
activities in HIV/AIDS, Education, Democracy and 
Governance and Agriculture. However, this segment of 
his program was superceded by a request for the 
Administrator to meet with key Nigerian officials on 
elections related issues.  In all of his meetings, the 
Administrator stressed: 1) the need for an all parties 
code of conduct denouncing electoral violence, 2) the 
importance and expectation of conducting free, fair, 
transparent and non-violent elections, 3) the 2003 
elections represent a watershed, would set a precedent 
for Africa and would influence how the USG and other 
donors viewed Nigeria, Africa as a whole and 
initiatives such as NEPAD, 4) Nigeria would maintain a 
leadership role in Africa by a successful transition 
from one civilian government to another.  He also 
voiced USG concern about election organizational 
problems (perception that INEC is inadequately 
prepared due to lack of funding and slow pace of 
logistical planning.  Finally, he inquired about what 
assistance the USG could provide to enhance the 
credibility of the electoral process and ensure 
successful elections. 
 
 
3.  (U) This was Administrator Natisos? first trip to 
Nigeria.  Mr. Natsios? visit with the key political 
players was productive and his meetings elicited 
general support for a code of conduct, GON promise to 
adequately fund INEC, and a promise from INEC to 
reopen voter registration. Moreover, the visit 
underscored for some key actors Washington's interest 
in a fair, peaceful contest. He departed Abuja on 
November 21, 2002, as scheduled and without incident. 
 
 
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II. Education For All (EFA) High-Level Group Meeting 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 
4.  (U) The EFA Second High-level Group Meeting was 
held at the Congress Hall of the Abuja NICON Hilton 
hotel from November 19-21.  The meeting was opened by 
President Olusegan Obasanjo and assisted by the 
Nigerian Minister of Education.  Mr. Koichiro 
Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO, delivered the 
welcome address and video-taped goodwill messages from 
James Wolfensohn, President of the World Bank, and 
Carol Bellamy, Executive Director of UNICEF, were 
played. Participants at the meeting included Ministers 
of Education from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa 
and the Middle East.  United Nations organizations, 
the EU, World Bank and USAID made up the list of 
multilateral and bilateral organizations, as well as 
the participation of several international non- 
governmental organizations. 
 
 
5.  (U) The expected outcomes of the meeting were: 
 
 
 a)  to assess the progress toward the achievement 
of the Dakar goals including discussion on major 
issues deriving from the global EFA monitoring report; 
 b)  evaluate the extent to which national 
policies, plans and programs are on track; 
 c)  evalute the extent to which international 
commitments made in Dakar are being met; and, 
 d)  mobilize global political support and 
resources for realizing EFA goals to eliminate gender 
disparities in primary and secondary education by 
2005. 
 
 
6.  (U) Administrator Natsios presented remarks during 
the session on International Commitments and 
Initiatives.  He stated that there has been a 90% 
increase for education at USAID over the past 3 years 
($100 million to $195 million) and a 25% increase for 
education in Africa. USAID will not invest in a 
country if:  a) it is not democratic, b) it is itself 
not investing in education (as measured by the % of 
national budget going to ed), c) the money will be 
wasted (corruption), d) systems of quality control are 
not in place, and e) the country is only focused on 
inputs, not results. He also stated he was pleased 
that the U.S. has rejoined UNCESO, and supports the 
work UNESCO is doing in data collection and analysis. 
Finally, he emphasized the importance of partnerships 
with the private sector:  religious (Mission Schools, 
Koranic Schools), business, foundations, (i.e. the 
Gates Foundation).  In his final remarks, the 
Administrator informed the audience about the Global 
Development Alliance (GDA). 
 
 
7.  (U) In an informal one-on-one exchange with the 
Nigerian Minister of Education, Professor Abraham 
Babalola Borishade wanted to clarify that data 
reported on Nigeria is not always accurate, or 
reflects the whole picture.  For example, the 7% 
figure quoted as budgeted for education from the 
national budget, does not take into consideration 
state and local government inputs which are 
substantial for primary education.  The Minister also 
explained the FGN has other important priorities (i.e. 
provision of clean water, electricity and good road, 
thus it could not devote more to education).  The 
Minister stressed that Nigeria has made progress in 
the past few years on school construction and 
implementation of UBE.  Finally, the Minister wanted 
to speak on behalf of other developing nations to 
impress upon the donors the importance of their making 
good on their promises made at the first HLG meeting 
in Dakar. Administrator Natsios reiterated points made 
above but made clear that Nigeria will not be 
forgotten by the U.S.  Mention was also made of the 
new Presidential Initiative on Basic Education, and 
that Nigeria is one of its first beneficiaries. 
 
 
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III. Meetings With Nigerian Officials 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
8.  (SBU) Ambassador Jeter hosted a breakfast meeting 
and invited Dr. Babatunde Oshotimehin, Chairman, 
Nigerian Action Committee on AIDS and Mrs. Oby 
Ezekwesili, Special Advisior to the President on 
Budgetary Matters. Mrs. Ezekwesili stated that the 
budget presented by the President to the National 
Assembly has 45% shortfall, primarily due to reduction 
of resources because of decrease in OPEC allocation. 
Also funds were not being realized from the 
privatization program. Mrs. Ezekwesili explained the 
Nigerian budget process, provided other reasons for 
the shortfall, and plans to monetize civil service 
benefits. 
 
 
9.  (SBU) HIV/AIDS ? Dr. Babatunde Oshotimehin: 
current national average HIV/AIDS prevalence rate is 
5.6% with some states having a rate as high as 15%. 
The aids budget is 20-30% of Ministry of Health's 
total budget.  Nigeria is participating in multi- 
country World Bank fund (credit scheme) to address 
prevention efforts and care and treatment, and 
assistance to people already infected.  Nigeria has 
developed and is implementing its HIV/AIDS policy. 
 
 
10.  (SBU) Meetings were held with representatives of 
the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the newly 
registered National Democratic Party (NDP) and five 
unregistered political associations awaiting 
registration.  Former Senator Safana, PDP Deputy 
National Chairman said the political parties were 
committed to non-violent elections. The other parties 
echoed the same sentiment, but criticized the 
Independent National Electoral Commission?s (INEC) 
performance. On the issue of a code of conduct for 
politicians, some party representatives commented that 
enough enforcement laws have been enacted but 
enforcement has been lax. All parties stated that they 
would sign a code of conduct. However, some opposition 
party members claimed that violence could spring from 
the strong desire of unpopular incumbents to be 
reelected at all costs, including rigging the vote 
count, and using hired thugs to intimidate opponents 
and voters. Each party stated they would renounce 
violence, but admitted that violence was a 
possibility.  One opposition party member stated that 
faced with the use of force by the incumbent 
candidates and parties, the opposition would be 
foolish to tie itself to a code of conduct. All groups 
voiced concern that large segments of the population 
were not able to register and they believed it was due 
to INEC's lack of planning and also misconduct by INEC 
officials and politicians.  The AP and AD members felt 
that since PDP was the majority party, PDP elected 
officials had access to government resources that put 
other parties at a disadvantage when it came to 
campaigning. 
 
 
11.  (SBU) November 20, - meeting with President 
Obasanjo.  After a quick overview of USAID's programs 
and presence in Nigeria, the Administrator raised the 
USG's major concerns regarding the status of the 
Nigerian electoral process, stressing the need for a 
code of conduct and the need to adequately fund INEC. 
The President responded positively on both issues.  On 
the matter of the code of conduct, the National 
Assembly had failed to pass the anti-electoral 
violence bill, but he would re-submit the legislation. 
The President said that he had approved the entire 27 
billion Naira election budget that INEC had presented 
to conduct the elections. The Ministry of Finance has 
been authorized to expedite the funds to INEC. The 
President promised that he would work to ensure the 
elections were credible and fair. 
 
 
12.  (SBU) November 20, 14:00 - during a meeting with 
INEC Chairman Guobadia, and Secretary General Baba- 
Ahmed, Administrator Natsios focused on voter 
registration, and INEC's budget and logistic 
preparations.  INEC officials disagreed with the 
claims that voter registration missed up to half of 
the eligible voters, but did admit that there were 
flaws in the exercise including the theft of 
registrations forms. INEC said they would reopen the 
registration. With the approval of the election 
budget, INEC hoped to begin to order essential 
material and further its logistical planning. On the 
matter of additional assistance, the Secretary General 
presented USAID a letter outlining INEC assistance 
needs for the elections.  INEC was supportive of a 
code of conduct, but said the onus was with the 
parties. However, INEC would encourage the process. 
 
 
13.  (SBU) Meeting with the National Security Advisor, 
Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, he believed that a code of 
conduct would have minimal impact since various party 
constitutions incorporate similar statements. He hoped 
INEC could accelerate its logistical planning and 
acquisition of needed electoral materials.  On the 
question of violence and the impact on a visit by the 
U.S. President, he was confident that there would be 
no reason for the President not to come. 
 
 
14.  (SBU) Meeting with PDP Board of Trustee Chairman 
and Former Vice President, Alex Ekwueme.  Mr. Alex 
Ekwueme was mildly supportive of a code of conduct, as 
it was only as good as the commitment of those who 
signed it. He believed the key to reducing political 
tension and the potential for violence was to convince 
unpopular incumbents not to seek re-election.  When 
asked if he planned to contest, he answered, "he had 
not made up his mind."  (Note:  since the meeting, Mr. 
Ekwueme has declared himself to be a candidate for 
President on the PDP ticket. End note). 
 
 
15.  (SBU) Meeting with PDP hopeful Senator Nwachukwu. 
Senator Nwachukwu blamed the violence on the 
determination of incumbents to succeed themselves.  He 
was non-committal on a public signing of a code of 
conduct and suggested that the USG could be most 
helpful by ensuring sufficient numbers of 
international election monitors during the caucus and 
elections. 
 
 
16.  (SBU) In a meeting with former President Yakubu 
Gowon, Administrator Natsios asked about the 
performance of INEC. The former President cited the 
experience of family members? inability to register 
during the September voter registration exercise due 
to lack of materials. On the issue of a code of 
conduct, he responded that the most important thing is 
for government and politicians to play by the rules. 
 
 
17.  (U) Meeting with USAID partners:  Pastor James 
Wuye and Imam Mohammed Nuralyn Ashafa, of the 
Muslim/Christian Dialogue Forum.  The meeting, held at 
USAID, centered on how the two began working together, 
their religious background, and a description of 
conflict prevention activities they are actively 
engaged in now.  The Administrator provided 
information on conflict activities that USAID is 
implementing in Europe and in Africa.  He said that 
the mission should take a look at the Bosnia and South 
Africa Sesame Street activities to determine if these 
kinds of programs might be modified for use in 
Nigeria.  The Administrator said that the mission 
should work closely with the Agency's Conflict office 
to: (1) design an activity that would allow us to air 
a weekly radio program hosted by the Pastor and the 
Imam; (2) do a case study on the Pastor and Imam 
because he believed that the lessons learned would be 
useful to other missions in conflict areas and (3) 
locate a school where the Pastor and Imam could 
upgrade their conflict/peace building skills. 
Following the meeting, the Administrator stressed that 
this had been one of his best meetings in Nigeria 
because he had the opportunity to meet ordinary people 
who were trying to bring peace to their country. 
 
 
18.  (U) During dinner discussions the USDH staff 
Administrator Natsios was advised that USAID/Nigeria 
had received funding for three (3) GDA activities. 
The Administrator asked whether the GDA manual was 
useful in designing activities.  The response was 
while it was useful in clarifying some issues, the 
mission still needed more guidance from USAID/W on the 
contractual and legal aspects of implementing the 
program.  A list of the issues not covered in the 
manual will be sent to USAID/W for possible inclusion 
into the GDA manual.  Another topic discussed was the 
leveraging funds from the Nigerian diaspora. 
Leveraging of funds is currently being done in the E&E 
bureau and within the Asian community. 
 
 
19.  (U) At the same dinner meeting, Ambassador Jeter 
informed Administrator Natsios that he believed that 
the mission needs to bring in additional help for the 
elections.  He said that a "domestic monitor" expert 
is needed for about a month to work with our 
international partners and other donors to get this 
process on track.  The ambassador also said that there 
is a need to bring in someone with "elections" skills 
who could dedicate 100% of his or her time to working 
on the elections with the donors and INEC.  The 
Administrator informed Ambassador Jeter that USAID 
would consider such a request and explore ways to be 
responsive. USAID will ascertain from Ambassador Jeter 
specifics on timing and other relevant information 
before contacting the Administrator.  In the interim, 
the mission is contacting the DG center to determine 
the availability of USDH staff with the requisite 
skills, or if outside assistance must be procured. 
 
 
20.  (U) For your information, the embassy is drafting 
classified cables of the meetings held with GON 
officials. As soon as they are transmitted I will 
advise you of the date and number. 
Jeter