US embassy cable - 02HARARE2805

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002805 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: MDC UNHAPPINESS WITH SOUTH AFRICA GROWS 
 
 
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington.  Reasons: 1.5 ( 
B) and (D). 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
1.  (C)  Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) President 
Morgan Tsvangirai told a visiting staffdel that Zimbabwe 
needed a 12-18 month transitional period during which 
critical national issues must be resolved to lay the 
foundation for a new election and long-term political 
stability.  He predicted that the Mugabe regime would not be 
able to last another six months, given the country's dramatic 
economic decline, but MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube 
lamented that those in control in ZANU-PF are unwilling to 
engage in dialogue on the way forward, no matter how bad the 
economy gets.  Ncube implied that the MDC would try to 
reverse the damage to commercial agriculture done by the fast 
track resettlement program, but said it was politically 
unviable to make such a promise publicly.  Tsvangirai thought 
the international community had done an effective job of 
isolating the Mugabe regime, but he urged Kofi Annan and 
South African President Thabo Mbeki to become more engaged in 
the search for a solution.  Ncube was strongly critical of 
South Africa, which he said was working actively to undermine 
the prospects for democracy in Zimbabwe.  End Summary. 
 
 
Transitional government the way forward? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  On December 11, members of the Flynn/Chaka staffdel, 
joined by the Ambassador and polchief, lunched with MDC 
President Morgan Tsvangirai, MDC Secretary-General Welshman 
Ncube, and party spokesman Paul Themba-Nyathi.  The 
Ambassador asked Tsvangirai to elaborate on his recent public 
call for a a 12-18 month transitional period leading to a new 
presidential election.  That was not a new proposal, the MDC 
president replied, but was consistent with the party's 
position at the aborted talks with the ruling party brokered 
in April and May by Presidents Mbeki and Obasanjo. 
Tsvangirai said he had merely "reinforced" that suggestion in 
 
SIPDIS 
his recent public remarks.  A transitional arrangement was 
needed, he said, as a "cooling-off" period before a new 
election was held, and critical national issues must be 
addressed during that period to lay the foundation for 
long-term political stability.  Asked whether the MDC would 
accept President Mugabe in a prominent decision-making role 
during the proposed transitional period, Tsvangirai said no, 
his retirement was a precondition for the MDC to endorse such 
an approach.  MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube was less 
dismissive, saying this would depend on how Mugabe's status 
was handled during a transitional period.  For instance, 
Mugabe could keep his title as president, while most of his 
decision-making powers could be shifted to the transitional 
authority. 
 
Economic decline an effective motivator? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Asked whether he felt significant time pressure to 
forge a political solution, Tsvangirai said there is 
tremendous pressure on both sides.  He predicted that 
Mugabe's regime would be unable to last another six months. 
How can a Government function, he asked, with no foreign 
exchange, with a worthless currency, and with an inflation 
rate predicted to rise soon to 500 percent?  The Ambassador 
noted that senior ZANU-PF insiders had made the same 6-month 
prediction to him of the GOZ's demise, if the country 
continues on the same path.  The main pressure on the current 
Government, Tsvangirai asserted, would be exerted by the 
dramatic economic decline, a factor which might make the 
ruling party more inclined to negotiate.  Ncube was not 
optimistic, declaring that those with influence in ZANU-PF 
are hardliners who are convinced they can run the country 
"through propaganda."  Those in control, he said, are simply 
not interested in dialogue.  He warned that the ruling 
party's infamous "retribution machine" has kept ZANU-PF 
moderates toeing the party line.  ZANU-PF MP's often agree in 
private with their colleagues across the aisle, but they are 
not willing to express that agreement in public because they 
are afraid of what their own party might do to them. 
 
Restoring the rule of law 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Staffdel member Malik Chaka asked whether extra-legal 
forces such as the youth militia and war veterans pose a 
major obstacle to a restoration of stability.  Once the 
Government of Zimbabwe withdraws support from such groups, 
Ncube replied, they will become irrelevant, and disbanding 
them would be one of the top priorities of a transitional 
authority.  According to Tsvangirai, any transitional 
authority also must be able to resolve two delicate issues 
relating to the military; how to deal with all the land 
allocated to members of the military under the fast track 
program, and how to handle the fact that many security 
service members have committed atrocities. 
 
Land 
---- 
 
5.  (C)  Asked whether an MDC government would be able to 
restore commercial agriculture, Tsvangirai replied that the 
first step would be to carry out a comprehensive audit of the 
former commercial farming sector.  Armed with that 
information, the MDC would move to restore property rights 
and the right to buy and sell land.  The Ambassador pointed 
out that, whether one liked it or not, there is a new reality 
on commercial farms.  Did the MDC plan to formulate a new 
policy on land which took into account this new reality? 
Ncube insisted that, in every nation that has ever carried 
out radical land reform -- citing the USSR and Mozambique -- 
that reform has slowly been reversed over time.  It is not 
politically viable for the MDC to say that it would reverse 
what has been done under the fast track resettlement program 
but, realistically, any future government will have to find a 
way to restore commercial agriculture.  What has happened in 
Zimbabwe, Ncube said, is that all the property acquired has 
simply been transferred from private ownership to government 
ownership, so government has complete control over what 
happens to that land.   MDC spokesman Themba-Nyathi remarked 
that an additional challenge for a future government would be 
to change people's psychology away from land and toward 
poverty eradication.  Tsvangirai agreed, saying people were 
more interested in jobs than land, and that no country has 
ever developed by removing people from industry and sending 
them to rural areas to farm. 
 
Role of International Community 
------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Tsvangirai said he thought the international 
community had played an effective role in increasing pressure 
on the Mugabe regime, by not recognizing the legitimacy of 
the March 2002 election.  He expressed concern, however, that 
the EU regularly makes exceptions to the travel ban imposed 
on certain GOZ officials.  He expressed hope that Kofi Annan 
would play a more active role in focusing attention on 
Zimbabwe's humanitarian crisis and that African countries -- 
South Africa in particular -- would engage more actively in 
the search for a solution here.  Welshman Ncube was much more 
critical of the South African government, which he accused of 
working actively to undermine the prospects for democracy in 
Zimbabwe.  He had particularly harsh words for South African 
Foreign Minister Zuma, whom he claimed had been in Europe the 
previous week lobbying the European Union not to renew its 
targeted sanctions against Zimbabwean officials in February 
2003.  Themba-Nyathi exprssed concern that such lobbying by 
Pretoria might be having an effect, reporting that the 
Portuguese ambassador in Harare had recently "dressed down" 
two senior MDC legislators when the latter suggested that 
President Mugabe should be excluded from next year's 
EU-African Union summit in Lisbon. 
 
7.  (C) Asked to describe the MDC's relations with the 
Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), Tsvangirai 
said COSATU is facing tremendous pressure from the ANC, which 
accuses it of being ultra-leftist, "whatever that means." 
The MDC, its leader said, has tried to avoid direct contact 
with the ANC and those in coalition with it, and is focusing 
more on working to strengthen linkages with South African 
churches and civic organizations. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C)  As usual, Tsvangirai portrayed himself as a 
conciliator committed to achieving change through peaceful, 
democratic means.  At the same time, his recent public 
remarks have become much tougher, stating explicitly that the 
MDC can no longer restrain Zimbabweans from expressing their 
anger and frustration and pledging the party's support of 
"all peaceful means" to achieve change.  In one public 
speech, he criticized party supporters for being afraid of 
the GOZ's security forces -- telling them to "vomit up their 
fear" -- and for waiting for him to tell them what to do. 
Zimbabwe's economic decline in the last three weeks alone has 
been dramatic -- with the fuel shortage becoming critical and 
many essential commodities simply disappearing from the 
shelves -- and raises increasing concerns of civil unrest 
that could quickly spiral out of control. 
 
9.  (C) Welshman Ncube has in the past criticized what he has 
viewed as South Africa's duplicitous efforts on Zimbabwe, but 
this is the most vehement criticism we have heard from him. 
We would be interested in learning whether FM Zuma has indeed 
been pressing the EU to drop its targeted sanctions against 
Zimbabwean officials, and, if so, why. 
SULLIVAN