US embassy cable - 02ANKARA8996

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008996 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2012 
TAGS: MARR, MOPS, TU, IZ, Iraq 
SUBJECT: DEFMIN HOPES FOR DECISION ON IRAQ WITHIN DAYS 
 
 
REF: SECDEF 122341 DEC 02 
 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador W. Robert Pearson, reasons 1.5, 
b/d. 
 
 
1. (S) Summary: In an introductory call on the new Minister 
of National Defense Mehmet Vecdi Gonul December 16, 
Ambassador emphasized the positive outcome of AK Party Leader 
Erdogan's visit to Washington, the resolution of Turkey's 
participation agreement with the EU on ESDP, progress on 
Turkey's eventual accession to the EU, and the invitation for 
Bulgaria and Romania to join NATO.  Nevertheless he noted the 
importance of Turkey's coming to a decision on whether to 
support a military operation against Iraq if one becomes 
necessary.  Gonul praised the support of the US for Turkey's 
EU candidacy and expressed appreciation for the warm 
reception Erdogan received in Washington.  He noted he had 
passed notes on his conversation with USDP Feith (reftel) to 
both PM Gul and Erdogan before they went to Copenhagen and he 
hoped his leadership would make a decision on Iraq the 
evening of December 16 and meet with Gonul December 17 upon 
their return to Ankara.  Gonul noted that the philosophy of 
the decision had been made but the public and the parliament 
needed to be prepared.  He added that "this week would be 
very important" comparing it to Turkey's decision regarding 
entry into WWII and NATO membership.  Gonul's aide ADM (L) 
Can Erenoglu noted the ONW renewal was being processed 
normally and did not foresee any problems.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (S) The Ambassador called on Minister of National Defense 
Gonul December 16 to congratulate him on his appointment.  He 
emphasized that, while the EU was not as forthcoming at 
Copenhagen as we had hoped, the resolution of a participation 
agreement with the EU on ESDP and AK Party Leader Erdogan's 
visit to Washington had been extremely valuable.  The 
Ambassador noted that POTUS appreciated the opportunity to 
establish a personal rapport with Erdogan.  He explained that 
Erdogan had been briefed on Iraqi WMD, US military plans and 
the number of coalition partners that support the US with or 
without a second UN resolution.  It had been made clear to 
Erdogan, however, that eventually the lack of a "yes" from 
Turkey on Iraq would, for all intents and purposes, be a 
"no."  The US respects that Turkey has some serious decisions 
to make, but we are running out of time. 
 
 
3. (S) Gonul began by expressing appreciation for US support 
for Turkey's EU accession aspirations and for Erdogan's warm 
reception in Washington, despite his not being the prime 
minister of Turkey.  He emphasized the difficulties of making 
such an important decision on Iraq, akin to Turkey's 
decisions on entering WWII or joining NATO, when virtually 
every parliamentarian was new.  Gonul added that Iraq had not 
been discussed during the campaign in Turkey and, therefore, 
the government needed "to get the Turkish public and the 
parliament behind us."  He said the "philosophical background 
of the decision had already been made" but the public needed 
to be prepared.  After his very fruitful discussions with 
USDP Feith in Rome on the margins of the SEDM, Gonul had 
passed 2-3 pages of notes to Erdogan and PM Gul at the 
airport on their way to Copenhagen.  He hoped his leadership 
would make a decision on Iraq the evening of December 16 and 
meet with Gonul December 17 when they got back to Ankara.  He 
expressed optimism about a decision on Iraq and said this 
week would be "very important." 
 
 
4. (C) The Ambassador thanked Gonul for the encouraging news 
and reminded him that the Embassy had submitted its request 
to renew Operation Northern Watch's presence in Turkey for 
another six months.  Gonul's aide ADM(L) Erenogul assured the 
Ambassador the request was being processed normally.  He said 
the PM or FM would likely speak on the issue and evinced no 
hint that he expected any problems with the renewal in 
parliament.  The Ambassador asked to be kept informed of its 
progress and underlined that the ONW renewal should be kept 
separated from larger issues on Iraq. 
 
 
5. (C) Regarding the outcome of the Copenhagen Summit, Gonul 
said Turkey would have preferred a better outcome but at 
least the country has a concrete goal that he hoped would 
motivate the population.  Gonul acknowledged that the US 
supported Turkey's candidacy although Turkey's membership 
would probably disadvantage the US in the short term.  The 
Ambassador underlined that our support for Turkey's 
membership was a strategic, vice tactical, interest. 
 
 
6. (C) Comment: While traditionally the MND is somewhat 
marginalized on most security issues except procurement, 
Gonul was clearly focused on the larger policy issues facing 
Turkey such as Iraq and EU membership.  He was not well 
briefed on specific procurement programs to which the 
previous MND was strictly confined.  Nevertheless, his 
experience in government, his ability to grasp issues 
quickly, and AK's interest in redressing the current 
imbalance in civilian-military relations may over time 
increase the role of MND in Turkey's policy-making apparatus. 
PEARSON