US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4967

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004967 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PTER, PHUM, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: ALLAWI ALLY JANABI ON ELECTION PROSPECTS 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD FOR REASON 
S 1.4. (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) Saad Al-Janabi, head of the Iraqi Republican 
Group running under Ayad Allawi's National Iraqi List 
coalition, told Poloffs that he hopes the coalition 
will win at least 43 seats, despite expected ballot 
stuffing and other irregularities on behalf of the 
Shi'a and Kurdish coalitions.  In an unsigned 
editorial in his As-Siyada newspaper, Janabi repeated 
reports that Iranian pilgrims coming to Najaf carried 
fake Iraqi passports, ostensibly to allow them to vote 
illegally on December 15. (Note: Legally, voters whose 
names do not appear on voter rolls are unable to vote, 
unless they can prove that they are registered. End 
Note).  He believes the Allawi coalition will do very 
well in Ninewa and Kirkuk, especially in tribal areas. 
Janabi became visibly annoyed when Poloff asked about 
"rent at tribe" -- reports that tribes are being paid 
for their votes.  He explained that there is nothing 
wrong in reimbursing tribal leaders for costs incurred 
in organizing meetings of members to discuss the 
election and to provide these members with small 
gifts.  It is an Arab custom, explained Janabi and 
cannot be equated with buying votes. 
 
2. (C) Janabi, a key Allawi lieutenant in the election 
campaign, said that the biggest problem in Iraq today 
is not security as most people believe, but the lack 
of a political culture, caused in part by the 
deprivations that followed the Coalition occupation 
and the resultant insurgency and sectarian violence. 
So rather than debate platforms and campaign themes, 
some political parties are resorting to defamation, 
character assassination and violence.  Primitive 
methods of tearing down or defacing campaign posters 
are common.  The IECI must be especially vigilant to 
prevent any tampering of the election, said Janabi, 
and observers are key to the effort. 
 
3. (C) Chances for an Allawi-formed coalition 
government are good, said Janabi, hinting at 
agreements with both the Tawafog and Kurdish 
coalitions.  He said his Iraqi Republican Group will 
merge with Allawi's National Accord after the 
election.  Though Janabi said he is being touted to 
head either the Defense or Interior Ministries in the 
new government, he would prefer the post of Minister 
of Communication. Janabi claimed he is considered a 
palatable choice for the Defense or Interior post by 
both Sunnis and Shi'a.  Janabi also claimed that Sunni 
Arab hard liner and Muslim Ulema Council leader Harith 
al-Dari, a close friend of Janabi's father (whom 
Janabi calls "uncle'"), gave Janabi his seal of 
approval in a side conversation at Arab League's 
preparatory conference in Cairo last month. 
 
4. (C) Janabi has a budding media empire, all run from 
his palace (one of the four palaces extensively 
refurbished - formerly occupied by Saddam's daughters 
and claimed by Janabi since they sit on land 
expropriated from the family by Saddam).  The Al- 
Rashid radio and television station broadcast in a 40 
km radius around Baghdad and he has plans to expand 
into other cities in Iraq.  His "As-Siyada" newspaper, 
distributed in Baghdad, published 50,000 copies daily 
and he publishes an English language weekly called the 
Baghdad Mirror. 
 
5.  (C)  Comment:  Saad al-Janabi's family owns 
properties in Baghdad, including in the International 
Zone.  His money is helping in the Allawi campaign. 
His seeking the Communications Ministry might be 
connected to his own business interests.  The 
challenge for business-oriented people like Saad 
Janabi is to learn how to represent broader interests 
of their communities instead of personal and family 
business interests.  This likely will be a long 
process. 
KHALILZAD