US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI5096

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 005096 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KE 
SUBJECT: DONNING POLITICAL BLINDERS, KIBAKI SWEARS IN NEW 
CABINET AS PLANNED 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4901 
 
Classified By: A/Political Counselor Lisa Peterson for 
reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: Despite the loss of nearly one quarter of 
his new appointees, President Kibaki proceeded with the 
swearing-in of his rump cabinet on December 9.  In doing so, 
the president effectively shut the door on initiating a 
dialogue with the marginalized parties to create a body that 
is truly one of political unity.  Kibaki's actions 
demonstrate the extent to which he remains out of touch with 
the reality of the political situation facing him.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
PRESIDENT ROLLS ON, UNFAZED 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Despite calls for Kibaki to put off the cabinet 
swearing-in ceremony scheduled for the morning of December 9, 
it went on as planned, simply passing over cabinet offices 
whose nominees had declined their appointments.  Prior to the 
ceremony, Nobel Laureate Wangari Maathai, re-nominated to her 
post of Assistant Minister for Environment (a slight, some 
say, to not be upgraded to full minister considering her 
public standing) called for a postponement, urging the 
President to pause and consult with all of the NARC 
leadership.  At least one of the three FORD-K ministers, 
Moses Akaranga, Minister of State for Public Service, was 
present to be sworn in, in spite of his party's decision to 
not participate in the Kibaki cabinet.  Conspicuously absent, 
however, were Maathai, and Assistant Ministers David Mwenje 
(Services), Kipkalia Kones (Public Works), Titus Ngoyoni 
(Regional Development), and Sammy Leshore (Labor). 
Concluding the event, Kibaki repeatedly referred to the 
cabinet as his "chosen team" arrived at through a 
"consultative and inclusive" process. 
 
3.  (C) The tally of how many ministers and assistant 
ministers have declined their cabinet job offers remains a 
moving target.  Rumors of more "no thank yous" continue, 
fuelled by the absences from the swearing-in.  The distinct 
possibility remains that some appointees, those who declined 
for feeling snubbed or under-compensated, will be wooed back 
into the Kibaki fold.  Listed in this column are all the 
FORD-K members, Health Minister Charity Ngilu, and Assistant 
Energy Minister Mwangi Kiunjuri.  Ngilu, who has already 
demonstrated that she is susceptible to enticement, may very 
well be holding out for a sweeter deal.  Former Minister for 
National Heritage Najib Balala told the DCM on December 8 
that he believed Peter Kenneth (Assistant Minister for 
Financial Management Affairs) and Joshua Toro (Assistant 
Minister for Roads and Public Works) would also decline their 
appointments.  In addition, Assistant Minister for Planning, 
Ekwee Ethuro, declined his nomination on December 8. 
 
KIBAKI HUDDLE 
------------- 
 
4.  (C) As news of cabinet nominees' refusal to join trickled 
in on December 8, the president met with several of his 
trusted advisors to develop a response to the mounting 
political crises.  Rumored to have been present at the 
meeting are Permanent Secretary in the Office of the 
President Stanley Murage, Minister for Special Programs (and 
Kibaki confidant) Njenga Karume, Vice President Moody Awori, 
Attorney General Amos Wako, and Head of the Civil Service and 
Secretary to the Cabinet Francis Muthaura.  The plan of 
 
SIPDIS 
action from this inner circle was clearly to move ahead, 
ignoring any suggestions that dialogue and outreach were 
necessary. 
 
ORANGES FIRED UP 
---------------- 
 
5.  (C) Reacting to their not unexpected exclusion from the 
new cabinet, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leaders renewed 
their call for snap general elections, while continuing to 
hold the door open for Kibaki to invite them in.  According 
to December 9 media reports, Uhuru Kenyatta stated that the 
president still had an opportunity to reach out.  If he did 
not, the ODM would "immediately call for elections to bring 
leadership and direction back to Kenya."  The ODM also called 
off its planned December 10 victory rally in Mombasa, which 
 
the government had banned (Ref A).  ODM  key figure William 
Ruto explained that the group canceled the event because of 
security concerns.  He accused security forces of planning to 
"unleash terror on the public."  In his discussion with the 
DCM, Balala was somber about the new cabinet, describing the 
unfolding events as "dangerous," which was why the group had 
chosen to cancel the rally. He nevertheless indicated that 
some nominees' refusal to join cabinet was cause for mild 
celebration within the ODM.  Balala went so far as to state 
that ODM could form an alliance with FORD-K, but only to work 
on constitutional matters. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6.  (C) It was evident from the makeup of the group Kibaki 
called in to huddle that there would be no dramatic change of 
course in the president's plans for his cabinet, one which 
would bring him to finally reach out to the ODM.  Kibaki 
appears intent to stay the course which, based on his remarks 
on December 7 and at the swearing-in, is a renewed commitment 
to economic development.  Kibaki's public professions of 
concern for the economic well-being of Kenya seem designed to 
distract the public from the bitter constitutional debate. 
In chosing this tactic, he is effectively closing the door to 
the constitutional dissenters and any possibility of a 
reconciled and unified government. 
 
7. (C) The question of how to fill the holes left by 
nominees' refusals remains unanswered.  As Kibaki has ignored 
the suggestion from multiple quarters to engage in a truly 
consultative process, his remaining options are to 
re-approach some of the no-shows who may be amenable to more 
attractive offers, call in his second string choices to fill 
in the vacancies, or distribute the open portfolios to the 
"loyal" nominees who have accepted their posts.  The planned 
ODM rally for December 10 could have served as a platform for 
the ODM to challenge Kibaki's new government and call for new 
elections, but also could have turned ugly.  The manner in 
which the ODM canceled - placing the onus for its decision on 
the government's actions - allowed it to avoid the appearance 
of weakness.  It also cast the government in a poor light, 
recalling images of Moi-era use of force (or threats thereof) 
to prevent public debate.  The ODM's strategy is not clear at 
this time, but we do not expect them to sit quietly by as 
Kibaki tries to pretend there are no political problems in 
the country.  END COMMENT. 
BELLAMY