US embassy cable - 05SANTIAGO2495

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTIAGO 002495 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CI 
SUBJECT: CHILE'S CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS: CENTER-LEFT 
CONCERTACION COALITION WINS WORKING MAJORITY IN CONGRESS 
 
REF: SANTIAGO 2486 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: For the first time since democracy returned 
to Chile in 1989, the center-left governing Concertacion 
coalition has secured a working majority in both houses of 
Congress as a result of the congressional elections on 
December 11.  When the new Senate takes office in March 2006, 
Concertacion will hold 20 seats and the center-right Alianza 
opposition 17 (there will be one independent).  Ten seats 
held by senators-by-appointment are to be eliminated 
effective March 2006, reducing the total number of senators 
to 38.  Concertacion's working majority in the Chamber of 
Deputies is slightly larger than in the Senate (65-54; one 
independent).  The far left coalition, including a small 
communist party, once again failed to gain a seat in either 
chamber.  End summary. 
 
Concertacion Wins Working Majority in Both Houses 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2. (U) Along with the first round of the presidential 
elections (ref a), Chileans elected half of their senators 
and all of their deputies on December 11.  The result: the 
center-left ruling Concertacion coalition emerged with a 
working majority in both the Senate and the Chamber of 
Deputies.  Of the 20 Senate races, Concertacion won 11, the 
center-right Alianza opposition won 8, and an independent 
took one seat.  Some of the more prominent senators elected 
were former Foreign Minister Soledad Alvear, former UDI head 
Pablo Longueira, former president Eduardo Frei, and Juan 
Pablo Letelier.  In the Chamber of Deputies (where all 120 
seats were up for re-election), Concertacion won 65 seats, 
the Alianza won 54, and an independent took one seat. 
 
3.  (U) While the absolute number of Concertacion senators 
remains unchanged from the congressional elections in 2001, 
Concertacion's composition has shifted leftward: the centrist 
Christian Democrat party lost half of its seats, while the 
Socialist Party and the Socialist Radical Democratic Party 
each increased their representation.  Within the Alianza 
coalition, the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) party 
dropped from 11 to 9 seats, while the National Renewal party 
increased from 8 to 9 seats. 
 
4. (U) Below is the composition in the Senate and Chamber of 
Deputies when Congress takes office on March 11, 2006: 
 
SENATE (38) 
 
Concertacion (20) 
 
-- Socialist Party (8) 
-- Christian Democrat Party (6) 
-- Radical Social Democrat Party (3) 
-- Party for Democracy (3) 
 
Alianza (17) 
 
-- Independent Democratic Union (9) 
-- National Renewal (8) 
 
Independent (1) 
 
CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (120) 
 
Concertacion (65) 
 
-- Socialist Party (15) 
-- Christian Democrat Party (21) 
-- Radical Social Democrat Party (7) 
-- Party for Democracy (22) 
 
Alianza (54) 
 
-- Independent Democratic Union (34) 
-- National Renewal (20) 
 
Independent (1) 
 
SANTIAGO 00002495  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The results of the congressional elections may 
affect the presidential run-off election on January 15. 
Concertacion's "victory" (a majority in both houses) may 
unite the four Concertacion parties behind Bachelet and 
prevent defections or abstentions from the center Christian 
Democrats, something absolutely necessary if voters on the 
right unite behind Sebastian Pinera.  On the other hand, 
there are some indications that centrist voters -- who might 
otherwise vote for Bachelet -- may be uneasy with 
Concertacion's congressional shift to the left, and might 
instead vote for Pinera to provide a "check" on Concertacion 
power. 
 
6.  (SBU) The Christian Democrats' poor showing in the 
congressional elections could easily re-ignite the perennial 
issue of the future of the Concertacion coalition, as the 
Christian Democrats suffer an identity crisis.  If Pinera 
loses to Bachelet, it is likely the same issue will rise 
within the Alianza.  If the coalitions fail, it is likely 
Chile's binomial electoral system would have to be revised, 
as well. 
KELLY