US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA11460

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 011460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, CO, Elections 
SUBJECT: URIBE'S CAMPAIGN TEAM PREPARES TO LEAVE 
GOVERNMENT; INTERNAL POLLS SHOW LIKELY VOTE AT 73 PERCENT 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood. 
Reason: 1.4 (b,d) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) President Uribe's comunications advisor Jaime 
Bermudez said December 7 that Uribe advisor Fabio Echeverri 
would run the president's reelection campaign.  He would be 
joined by Bermudez, Uribe private secretary Alicia Arango, 
spokesperson Ricardo Galan (all of whom would have to leave 
their government positions to join the campaign), and former 
Uribe advisors Jose Arango, and Alberto Velasquez.  According 
to Bermudez, the campaign will highlight "democratic 
security," confidence in Uribe personally, and social issues. 
 Uribe will present democratic security not as a goal in 
itself but rather as necessary to achieve peace with illegal 
armed groups.  Echeverri would use a number of leading Uribe 
supporters to get out a coordinated message rather than 
select one spokesperson and risk upsetting others.  Bermudez 
said his internal polls show Uribe's likely voter numbers at 
73 percent.  End summary. 
 
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Campaign Team Prepares to Leave Government 
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2.  (C) Bermudez told Polcouns that Uribe has asked many of 
the people who ran his 2002 presidential campaign to organize 
his reelection effort beginning late January; most are still 
in government and will have to leave their posts before 
joining the campaign to comply with the Constitutional 
Court's Electoral Guarantees opinion that places severe 
restrictions on public employees' campaign activities.  Uribe 
advisor Fabio Echeverri would head the campaign team and be 
joined by Bermudez, Alicia Arango, Ricardo Galan, and two 
former Uribe advisors, Jose Arango and Alberto Velasquez. 
Bermudez said he considered staying in his government 
position but realized that the Constitutional Court's 
restrictive Electoral Guarantees law ruling made the choice 
impossible; public sector employees cannot play any campaign 
role whatsoever, he said.  Uribe will not replace the 
departing employees; rather, their deputies will take over 
through the election. 
 
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Campaign Themes and Challenges 
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3.  (C) Bermudez said the campaign would focus on presenting 
Uribe as an ethical and hard-working president whose 
"democratic security" approach had paid off in lower rates of 
most major crimes and a greater degree of security for the 
vast majority of Colombians.  The president would argue that 
"democratic security" was not an objective in itself, but 
rather was an essential base from which to address 
longer-term peace talks with illegal armed groups.  The 
campaign would also highlight Uribe's success in tackling 
social issues and commit the next administration to do even 
more, he said.  According to Bermudez, the campaign had no 
plans to use "negative" tactics but would not rule out 
responding to what Bermudez said was already an avalanche of 
negative attacks on Uribe. 
 
4.  (C) Bermudez said he expects the most significant 
opposition attacks to focus on paramilitary, free trade, and 
social policy matters.  In his view, the Uribe campaign 
should be able to handle the attacks.  Bermudez said his 
internal polls show Uribe's likely voter numbers at 73 
percent. 
 
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Opposition: No Surprises 
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5.  (C) Bermudez regards Horacio Serpa (Officialist 
Liberals); either Antonio Navarro Wolff (Independent 
Democratic Pole) or Carlos Gaviria (Democratic Alternative); 
and former Bogota mayor Antanas Mockus as Uribe's likely 
challengers.  Bermudez said he was surprised that Mockus 
(whom he said was the strongest potential challenger in a 
second ballot) is running at only 2 percent in the polls.  In 
Bermudez' view, Mockus is very intelligent and has played it 
correctly by not attacking Uribe and staying above the 
political fray, but he has left his campaign very late. 
Bermudez said he was not concerned about former president 
Cesar Gaviria jumping into the race, about which rumors have 
begun circulating.  With negative ratings hovering at 50 
percent, he said, a Gaviria candidacy would not be 
troublesome. 
 
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Campaign Tactics 
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6.  (C) Bermudez told polcouns the campaign would not have a 
"chief spokesperson" other than Uribe.  Campaign chief 
Echeverri would instead work closely with leading Uribe 
supporters in Congress and elsewhere to ensure a coordinated 
message from the Uribe camp.  A decision to "annoint" a 
spokesperson such as Juan Manuel Santos, coordinating Uribe's 
"Party of the U" movement, would likely cause problems with 
other leading Uribe supporters, he said. 
 
 
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Congressional Campaign - Comment 
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7.  (C) Although Uribe can run for reelection as president in 
May simply by continuing to govern well, it is unclear what 
he will do to advance his allies in the March congressional 
election.  Since there has not been reelection in modern 
times, there is no tradition of "coattails" or customary 
practice to guide him. 
WOOD