US embassy cable - 02ANKARA8994

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008994 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CONTROVERSIAL MEHMET AGAR REPLACES TANSU 
CILLER AT HELM OF CENTER-RIGHT DYP 
 
REF: ANKARA 2431 
 
 
Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter.  Reason: 
1.5 (b,d) 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Mehmet Agar, elected in November as in 
independent M.P. and a notorious figure in the Susurluk 
"State-Mafia" scandal of the mid-1990s, is the new leader of 
center-right DYP, elected to replace former P.M. Tansu Ciller 
at Dec. 14 DYP Convention in Ankara.  Agar will likely steer 
DYP along a more nationalistic course.  While running counter 
to prevailing popular interest in a more open and modern 
society, such a course may help the party draw support from 
disaffected youth and other elements that went for the 
upstart Genc Party in November.  End summary. 
 
 
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Agar In... 
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2. (C) Poloffs Dec. 14 attended the center-right True Path 
Party's (DYP) extraordinary congress, held to elect a leader 
to replace Tansu Ciller after the party's bitter defeat in 
the Nov. 3 national elections. (After DYP just missed passing 
the 10 percent national vote barrier, Ciller declared her 
intention to step aside).  Mehmet Agar, who in the mid-1990s 
served as then P.M. Ciller's Interior Minister, won a 
landslide victory, tallying 815 of some 1109 valid delegate 
votes.  Ilhan Kesici, though Ciller's favorite and a former 
DYPer who returned to the party after the elections, finished 
a distant second with 227 votes.  One senior DYP official and 
close Embassy contact claimed Ciller was busy parleying with 
Kesici up to the last minute in a failed effort to keep Agar 
from the top spot.  She failed; with the handwriting on the 
wall, she delivered a tearful farewell speech to the 
assembled host. 
 
 
---------------------- 
...The Dragon Lady Out 
---------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) Although Ciller had announced that she would not stand 
for party chairman again, she apparently had tried to 
engineer a comeback at the convention.  Before the 
convention, some DYP contacts noted that, given the 
"extraordinary" nature of the proceedings the party did not 
have time to draw up a new slate of delegates and instead 
relied on a cadre long cultivated and controlled by Ciller. 
In the event, DYP's defeat at the polls Nov. 3 had burst the 
Ciller balloon, sending even loyal associates scrambling for 
safe haven.  Party Vice Chairman M. Selim Ensarioglu, until 
virtually the last minute a key Ciller backer, told 
D/Polcouns Dec. 12 that Agar was likely to win -- and that an 
Agar victory would mean the end of Ciller.  Ensarioglu, a 
Kurd, said he opposed the more aggressive, police-oriented 
nationalism espoused by Agar, but was leaning toward him for 
practical political reasons.  In the event, Ensarioglu held 
on to his Vice Chairmanship.  Ciller advisor Omer Barutcu 
told poloff Dec. 13 that if Agar won, Ciller would have "no 
chance" to return to the Party helm in the future, though he 
added that she is too ambitious to simply go quietly. 
 
 
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Agar Hams It Up at "Funereal" Convention 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) The convention was poorly organized and devoid of the 
usual enthusiasm and fanfare -- in the words of one DYPer, 
"more like a funeral" than a party assembly.  Ankara's 
Ataturk Sports Hall, long a venue for such events, was 
stifling even by normal sweat-house Turkish standards; the 
intense cigarette smoke caused two elderly women to pass out 
and the Master of Ceremonies to plead twice for attendees to 
refrain from lighting up their cheap Turkish cigarettes. 
Signs at the gates admonished those present to leave their 
guns and other weapons at home, though many apparently 
decided to ignore the advice.  (Several senior DYP officials 
had expressed concern before and during the conference that 
given the high stakes involved, the event could turn 
violent).  The usually simple task of choosing the party 
board turned into an hours-long and contentious process 
because proper ballot cards had not been printed.  Despite 
their overwhelming numbers, Agar supporters could muster only 
a few half-hearted "Prime Minister Agar" cheers. 
5. (C) In his acceptance speech, Agar declared his goal is to 
"unite the right" by first imposing unity and discipline on 
the (moribund) DYP.  Apparently inspired by a line attributed 
to Cardinal Richelieu in Dumas' "The Three Musketeers," Agar 
defended the 1996 "Susurluk" scandal -- the shadowy nexus 
among senior officials of the military and Security Forces, 
"mainstream" politicians, and criminal gangs involved in 
fighting terror with terror and turning drug profits in the 
Kurdish southeast (reftel and previous) -- asserting that 
"whatever was done was done for the good of the State" and 
not for personal gain. 
 
 
----------------------------- 
Bio: Agar Takes DYP Rightward 
----------------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) Agar, a former Governor of Erzurum and Chief of the 
Turkish National Police, is best known for his role with 
Ciller at the epicenter of Susurluk.  While Ciller tried to 
defend these actions and Susurluk perpetrators, she also 
eventually tried to dump her one-time confidant Agar, who as 
a DYP Member of Parliament was never tried for his alleged 
crimes.  Agar was reelected 1999 and again in 2002 as an 
independent from his home province of Elazig in 
east-southeastern Turkey.  Claiming to be of Turkish origin, 
Agar reportedly speaks the Zaza dialect of Kurdish that is 
widespread in the region; according to one former Elazig 
M.P., local Kurdish tribes have long supported Turkish 
ultranationalist figures against rival tribal and other 
organizations.  Agar's strength lies in his reputation as a 
man of the people with strong interpersonal skills and a 
godfather-like presence.  A graduate of Ankara University's 
prestigious Political Science Faculty, Agar is married with 
two children.  Another child died of an illness in the late 
1990s. 
 
 
7. (C) Agar has some advantages.  DYP's electoral defeat 
prompted it to clean house.  The new party leadership roster 
is comprised of little-known and indeed some shadowy figures. 
 According to several sources, Agar's political eminence 
grise is Ramazan Emre, an elderly man listed only as a member 
of the Central Administrative Board but whom we have seen 
making the rounds of Ankara tea-houses and back-room 
establishments with an entourage fit for a kingmaker.  Also, 
despite its electoral defeat DYP tallied nearly 10 percent of 
the vote, which if handled correctly could provide it with a 
suitable base upon which to rebuild -- particularly given the 
near obliteration of DYP's rivals, the Nationalist Movement 
(MHP) and center-right Motherland (ANAP) parties.  Ensarioglu 
averred to us that Agar's presence in DYP will help reform 
the hard right along more center-right lines.  Others, 
including a former DYP M.P. now an AK (Justice and 
Development) Party member, worry that Agar will "MHP-ize" his 
party: transform DYP into a carbon copy of the 
ultranationalists. 
 
 
8. (C) Agar's major liability is his association with 
Susurluk in the eyes of a public eager for an end to 
corruption in politics and the State, and a nationalism that 
runs counter to the prevailing interest in a more open, 
democratic society -- but which might win it enough 
additional votes from erstwhile Genc (Youth) Party supporters 
next time around.  As Ensarioglu told us Dec. 12, "if there 
was a national election on the horizon, Kesici would have 
been the better man.  But with the ruling AK holding a 
commanding majority and in no danger of early elections, Agar 
is the better man.  At least, he's still in Parliament" as 
the only DYP M.P.  Asked whether the new DYP leader would be 
a place-holder or the party leader into the next election 
cycle, Barutcu speculated that the new DYP boss will face a 
challenge if the party fails to do well in the next municipal 
elections.  Our contacts note that those polls must be held 
no later than the spring of 2004, but could come early next 
year. 
PEARSON