US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4959

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004959 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Elections, Sunni Arab, Shia Islamists 
SUBJECT: KEY SUNNI LEADER ENVISIONS A UNITY GOVERNMENT - 
INCLUDING SHIA ISLAMISTS 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: A leading figure in the top Sunni Arab 
electoral list told PolOff December 12 that his group 
was aiming for a broad "national unity" government 
after the elections.  The official, Mahmud Mashhadani 
of the Iraqi Consensus (Tawafuq) Front, told PolOff 
that he envisioned an alliance with the Shia 
Islamists, Allawi, and the Kurds to form the broadest 
government possible.  He emphasized the need to keep 
every powerful player inside the government.  He 
wanted to put leaders who have contact with the 
insurgency in key government positions so they can 
lead a broad government effort to negotiate with and 
end much of insurgency.  This would allow the 
government to direct its firepower at the true 
implacable enemies: hard-line Ba'athists and Zarqawi 
supporters.  Mashhadani predicted Allawi would be at 
the helm of the new government but said he believed 
Adel Abd al-Mehdi was someone he could work with as 
well. END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) Mahmud Mashhadani, a key official in the 
leading Sunni Arab electoral list, Iraqi Consensus 
(Tawafuq) Front, told PolOff December 12 that his 
party intended to forge a "national unity" governing 
alliance with the Kurds, Allawi, and the Shia 
Coalition.  He offered the following observations to 
PolOff after leaving a broader meeting between the 
Ambassador, General Casey, and Sunni Arab leaders 
(septel): 
 
-- THE NEED TO ALLY WITH THE SHIA ISLAMISTS: 
Mashhadani said the group was well aware that driving 
the Shia alliance into the opposition would only 
perpetuate Iraq's problems, not solve them.  "We 
entered the political process to solve the security 
situation," he said.  "We can't do that without 
agreeing with 555 (the Shia alliance)."  Mashhadani 
insisted that the group was capable of working with 
SCIRI and had a working relationship with Badr 
Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri.  "The elites have 
very good relationships," he said.  "It's lower down 
that we have the problems." 
 
-- HOW THE CONSENSUS FRONT IS DISPLACING THE 
BA'ATHISTS: The Iraqi Consensus Front's main enemy is 
the Ba'athists, he said.  The Ba'ath Party insurgent 
leadership has identified the Consensus Front as its 
top opponent, he said.  "They realize that we will 
take their place and lead the Sunni Arabs into 
politics," he said.  Mashhadani said the group had 
taken care to keep Ba'athists and those merely seeking 
ministries out of its ranks, he said.  That decision 
had driven away figures like Salah al-Mutlak, he said, 
who is interested in becoming a minister, not a leader 
for Iraqi stability.  The danger, Mashhadani said, is 
that Ba'athists are now allied with Zarqawi followers 
in an effort to liquidate their movement.  It was that 
unholy alliance he described as responsible for the 
recent murders of Iraqi Islamic Party leader Ayad al- 
Azi and others. 
 
-- HOW THE NEXT GOVERNMENT WILL TACKLE THE INSURGENCY: 
The crucial defense and interior positions would be 
handed to technocrats everyone can agree on, he said. 
Mashhadani said it was crucial that the occupants of 
these positions be able to credibly negotiate with the 
insurgency.  Mashhadani said that the next government 
would need to form a group to undertake such talks and 
aim to achieve stability within months so that the 
guns can turn on Zarqawi and the radical Islamists. 
"Khalaf al-Ayan is well known to the resistance," he 
said. "If he sets out to offer them guarantees, they 
will say 'okay' . . . and deal with him.'"  The 
problem up until now, Mashhadani said, is that 
officials like Interior Minister Bayan Jabr and 
Defense Minister Sa'adoon Duleimi have no credibility 
with the insurgency.  Someone like Saleh Mutlak in the 
Defense Ministry would be similarly ineffective, 
Mashhadani said. 
 
-- PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT GOVERNMENT: Mashhadani 
predicted that Ayad Allawi would take the prime 
ministership, Khalaf al-Ayan the Presidency, and the 
Shia Islamists a host of other positions.  Poloff 
questioned whether the Shia Islamists would be content 
with scattered positions and no clear major 
portfolios.  Mashhadani joked disparagingly about 
Shia politicians, saying that they "just want money and 
women."  However, Mashhadani said he actually considered 
SCIRI-candidate Adil Abd al-Mahdi to be an excellent 
potential ally as a leading government official. 
Because of his background as an Arab nationalist and 
communist, Mehdi will be able to work with the Sunni 
Arabs, he said.  He ruled out Ahmad Chalabi for the 
prime ministership, however. "He's capable but we 
can't trust him," he said.  "He was two faces, one 
with you and one with Iran."  Mashhadani also ruled 
out Ibrahim Ja'afari: "A nice man but he just talks 
and talks.  He doesn't do anything.  He reminds me of 
(Ba'ath Party founder) Michel Aflaq: blah, blah, blah, 
and the state is falling apart."  Mashhadani described 
a radicalized Sadrist trend, funded by Iran, as the 
biggest threat on the horizon.  "They have a moderate 
current, though," he said. 
 
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COMMENT 
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3. (C) Mashhadani's comments suggest a readiness to 
place greater value on stability than on political 
power; Mashhadani did not appear interested in keeping 
the Shia alliance out of power, even if he could 
achieve it.  For all the Sunni hardliner hatemongering 
against the "Persian Shia," Mashhadani indicated that 
he and his group realized that stability would only 
come when they forge a governing alliance with a group 
like SCIRI.  One note of caution, though:  Mashhadani 
has always been one step ahead of his peers on 
politics.  Back during the constitution negotiations, 
he whispered in PolOff's ear that he supported 
federalism at a time when the issue was still enraging 
his colleagues.  He may have reached this conclusion, 
but it will take more effort to bring the rest of his 
slate down this line. 
KHALILZAD