US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4956

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004956 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, KISL, PGOV, PINR, PINS, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: SADRISTS READY TO TAKE IRAQ TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL 
 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR 
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY:  In a December 11 meeting, Sadrist TNA 
member Nasser al Sadi of Sadr City told PolOff the Sadrists 
favor forming a government that includes the Sunni Arabs 
and Kurds.  He said the Sadrists do not want UIA 555 to 
govern alone, and the Sadrists do not wish to dominate any 
particular ministry.  He assured PolOff that the Sadrists 
have eschewed violence and will resist the occupation of 
Iraq solely by political means.  Nasser continued, saying 
that the Sadrists are especially strong in southern Iraq. 
Muqtada al Sadr may even run for political office once 
Coalition Forces (CF) leave Iraq, according to Nasser.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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A More Perfect Union 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) Nasser told PolOff that the main goal of the 
Sadrists was to form an inclusive government after the 
December 15 elections.  He said the Sadrists do not want 
UIA 555 to control the government alone.  In order for a 
government to be successful, it must include Kurds and 
Sunni Arabs.  No group should oppress another group.  All 
Iraqis must be equal under the law. 
 
3. (C) Nasser went on to say that the Sadrists do not have 
ambitions to dominate any particular ministries in the next 
government.  He said the jobs at the ministries should go 
to the most qualified Iraqis, regardless of political 
affiliation.  Nasser does think, however, that the Sadrists 
have qualified people to serve as Minister of Housing and 
Public Works, Minister of Trade, and Minister of Education. 
Sadrists do not officially desire to take over the Ministry 
of Defense or Ministry of Interior, but, if they did, Iraq 
would be safer, he promised.  While promising that militias 
would not be used to target certain groups, Nasser pledged 
that with a security ministry the Sadrists would "take Iraq 
to a whole new level of security."  (Comment:  Given the 
experience in places like Najaf with Sadrist 'sharia' 
courts and the Mahdi militia, the Sadrists very likely 
would indeed take Iraq to a new level of quote security 
unquote.  End Comment.) 
 
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Giving Peace a Chance 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) According to Nasser, fighting MNF-I twice has taught 
the Sadrists that violence is not the way to achieve their 
goals.  Jaysh al Mahdi (JAM) will not fight MNF-I again. 
Muqtada al Sadr has decided to resist the occupation of 
Iraq solely by political means. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Playing To Their Base, and Looking To the Future 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5. (C) Nasser said the Sadrists are campaigning mainly in 
southern Iraqi cities such as Maysan, Nasiriyah, Basrah, 
and Kut.  These areas in the Shia heartland are where the 
Sadrists are strongest.  The Sadrist candidates, Nasser 
claimed, do not have a lot of money, and so have had to 
rely on imams to urge people to vote for them.  While not 
openly endorsing candidates himself, Nasser said Muqtada al 
Sadr wants his followers to vote for "those who were 
oppressed by the former regime."  Nasser also added that it 
is possible, once CF leaves Iraq that Muqtada will run for 
public office. 
 
6. (C) COMMENT:  Nasser is one of the few Sadrists with 
whom we can speak; many refuse to have anything to do with 
Embassy personnel.  Those that do are careful to make the 
conversations very short, and they refuse to talk to 
Embassy female poloffs.  By contrast, Nasser seems sincere 
in his moderate opinions; he directs a Sadrist cultural NGO 
on top of his TNA duties.  He also definitely knows what we 
want to hear.  While he is not in the inner circle around 
Muqtada, he is young and could be on the political scene 
for a long time.  His comments point to the Sadrists' 
desire to be seen as serious politicians.  The enthusiasm 
with which Nasser spoke about possibly taking over a 
security ministry, however, makes his claims sound somewhat 
disingenuous.  Many here have doubts that Muqtada and all 
his aides have completely bought in to the democratic 
process.  We are watching for indications about whether or 
not he is going through the democratic motions only while 
it is convenient for him and his movement to do so.  END 
COMMENT. 
KHALILZAD