US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA4097

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 004097 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR A/S FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, EAID, ET, ELEC, UNREST 
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: THE WAY FORWARD ON POLITICAL DIALOGUE 
AND DETAINEES 
 
REF: ADDIS ABABA 3954 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Forward movement on democratization in 
Ethiopia is essential to avoid further political violence as 
well as a further deterioration in the human rights and 
political freedoms.  An improvement in the political climate 
also appears to be the most practical and effective way to 
obtain the eventual release of detained leaders of the CUDP, 
journalists and civil society representatives.  PM Meles is 
ready to reopen political dialogue with the leadership of 
opposition parties in Parliament, and those parties, 
including the UEDF and the OFDM have agreed to initiate 
informal discussions with the GOE.  The Charge arranged for 
PM Meles to meet with party leaders beginning Dec. 12.  Meles 
said he would include the CUD Parliamentary opposition in the 
discussions once they have named a leader.   We expect the 
talks to focus on "rule of law" issues including current 
unrest in Oromiyia improving opportunities for the opposition 
in Parliament, media issues, and National Electoral Board 
(NEB).  As the discussion moves forward, we hope that trust 
will be built that would prepare the way for the realization 
of the EU-US ten point plan, including the release of 
detained CUDP leaders.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) While relative calm has returned to the streets in 
most parts of Ethiopia since widespread, violent protests in 
early November, political tension remains high.  Disturbances 
continue in many parts of the extensive Oromiya region, 
including protests, arrests and some reported killings of 
government opponents.  The Oromo Liberation Front's (OLF) 
call for popular struggle against the GOE appears to have 
prompted much of this unrest. Popular frustration with the 
EPRDF simmers just below the surface in many other areas as 
well, particularly cities and towns.  The continuing 
detentions of Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) 
leadership as well as many CUDP followers is a major factor 
in public anger, as is the more general perception that 
Ethiopia's democratic opening is sliding backwards. 
 
PM and Parliamentary Opposition Agree to Talk 
 
3. (C) The Nov. 6 U.S.-EU Statement on the current situation 
sought to provide a way forward, and included an explicit 
call for the release of CUDP leaders as well as other 
detainees.   PM Meles has categorically rejected a release of 
the detainees prior to their trail, however.  Charges are 
expected to be announced by the government on Thursday. 
Although Embassy and DAS Yamamoto have repeatedly pressed for 
the CUD and civil society leaders release, on a parallel 
course we are seeking to open political space and build 
confidence between the Government and opposition in 
Parliament by encouraging a serious  discussion/dialogue 
between the GOE and those opposition parties in Parliament, 
including the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces and the 
Oromo Federal Democratic Movement (OFDM).  As part of the 
political dialogue with the GOE in October, the UEDF was 
negotiating alongside the CUD a joint agenda focused on 
strengthening Ethiopia's democratic institutions.  PM Meles 
expressed to the Charge in private on at least two occasions 
since early November his willingness to resume discussions on 
the same eight-point agenda agreed before October talks 
collapsed.  The Charge followed up with several meetings with 
UEDF leaders Beyene Petros and Merera Gudina, OFDM leader 
 
SIPDIS 
Bulcha Demeksa and independent (former President) Negaso. 
All agreed December 7 to resume talks with the suspended 
eight-point agenda as a starting point.  PM Meles confirmed 
Dec. 8 that he would be available to do so beginning Dec. 12 
with British Ambassador and Charge present.  Talks with the 
PM are also planned for December 13 and 14; subsequent talks 
will not necessarily include the Prime Minister. The Prime 
Minister suggested that Dr. Negaso (an independent member of 
Parliament) not participate because he does not represent a 
party. This is agreeable to the opposition. 
 
 
The Empty Chair:  CUDP Not Ready to Participate 
 
 
4. (C)  The PM said that he would like to include the leader 
of the CUD Parliamentary group when it chooses a leader.  So 
far, however, the CUD has not successfully re-established its 
decision-making structure since the arrest of its leaders and 
the rejection by the NEB of the coalition's proposed merger 
into a single party in November (reftel).  According to the 
NEB, the CUDP does not exist as a legal entity; PM Meles has 
indicated to the Charge twice in private that the previous 
CUD coalition would be charged with criminal offenses.  There 
are currently at least 59 CUDP MPs who have taken their seats 
in Parliament in defiance of the party's formal decision not 
to do so -- over half of the 109 CUDP MPs elected -- but 
those MPs have studiously avoided any media exposure and do 
not appear to have selected a leader.  Other opposition 
parties confirmed post's impression that the CUD is not yet 
ready to participate in any formal dialogue.  EU Ambassador 
Tim Clarke asked the UEDF and OFDM leaders if they were aware 
of the "danger" of going ahead with talks while the CUD 
leaders are detained.  The four leaders told him that any 
gains they made would be for all the opposition, but that 
this is now the only way forward.  Clarke reluctantly agreed 
to support the effort.  The other EU Troika members, the UK 
and Austrian Ambassadors agreed with the UEDF, OFDM and 
ourselves that the new round of dialogue is the best 
possibility for consolidating democracy.  CUD supporters in 
the Diaspora issued a communiqu Dec. 6 in which they opposed 
any dialogue conducted without their party's participation. 
 
 
Substance: Rule of Law, Parliament, Media and Electoral Board 
 
 
5. (C) The eight-point agenda that will initially guide the 
discussions includes four initial items proposed by the GOE 
that respect for the Constitution by both government and 
opposition, such as recognizing the Constitution and 
institutions of government and rejecting illegal actions. 
The other agenda items are the "rule of law", including such 
matters as arbitrary detentions and harassment of opposition 
parties as well as the disturbances in Oromiya; access to 
responsible public and private media; a review of 
Parliamentary rules and the creation of an effective 
Parliament; and capacity-building for the National Electoral 
Board (NEB) and naming of a new Board.  As before, opposition 
parties would like to push discussion on the NEB agenda item 
to cover deeper reform of the institution to ensure 
impartiality, rather than simply training staff, etc.  The 
UEDF and OFDM also will raise the constitutional issue of 
 
SIPDIS 
when local elections will be held.  Issues will be divided 
into two categories.  Category one includes those issues that 
constitutional obligations.  Category two are those that 
provide political space for the opposition but are not 
mandated by law. 
 
 
Local Mediation Possible, but Only Limited International 
Participation 
 
 
6. (C) While details of the discussions/dialogue are likely 
to evolve following the initial meeting on Dec. 12, the PM 
told the Charge on Dec. 8 that he wanted her and British 
Ambassador Dewar to participate only in the initial session. 
Thereafter, the PM said that the international community 
would be kept informed of progress in the talks.   Meles said 
that he would participate himself in at least the first three 
day of discussion, but would eventually turn them over to 
Public Affairs Advisor Bereket Simon.  In a departure from 
the previous dialogue, the PM suggested that he was 
considering some form of independent Ethiopian mediation or 
observation in the talks.  Among the options appears to be 
participation by representatives of a group of elders, a 
common local form of dispute resolution and reconciliation 
that the GOE has resisted up until now.  UEDF leader Beyene 
Petros suggested separately that someone like Amb. Berhanu 
Dinka, an Ethiopian diplomat currently engaged in Darfur 
mediation, would be a good choice to mediate.  Meles also 
said that he will  initiate a separate discussions with Oromo 
leaders like Merera Gudina and Bulcha Demeksa to discuss 
particular Oromo issues. 
 
 
Expected Outcomes from Dialogue 
 
 
7. (C) If the initial discussions with the Prime Minister are 
productive, we anticipate the following: reduced pressure on 
the Parliamentary opposition and increased political space in 
Parliamentary deliberations so that they have a more 
effective voice; release of remaining detainees from the UEDF 
and OFDM that not linked with OLF's call for insurrection; 
opposition participation in the review of the rules of 
Parliament; agreement by all sides to abide by the 
constitution; better access to the media and a toning down of 
rhetoric on both sides; capacity-building of the NEB; and the 
beginning of a search for solutions to the violence in 
Oromiya.   As the discussions move into category two, we 
would hope to see: revision of Parliamentary rules and at 
least one opposition comittee chairmanship;  consultations 
and agreement on date of local elections and naming of a new 
NEB Board; implementation of a new media law and code of 
conduct agreeable to government and opposition; the full 
participation of the CUD parliamentarians; and an end to 
arbitrary detentions.   It is our expectation that as trust 
is built up through the dialogue, the GOE will not only be 
more willing to loosen its repressive grip on the opposition 
generally, but will also consider a pardon of the CUD and 
civil society leaders, probably after the trial and verdict. 
 
8.  (C) Should the talks with ONC leader Dr. Merera and UEDF 
leader Dr. Bulcha on Oromiya go well, this could lay the 
foundation for resuming OLF cooperation with the government. 
The OLF will have to reinitiate the dialogue, however.   The 
Prime Minister has suggested that one potential solution 
would involve allowing the OLF to participate indirectly in 
Parliament via its natural allies in either the ONC or OFDM. 
 
 
City Government: the Next Target 
 
 
9.  (C)  While the above discussions are underway, the US and 
the Troika will continue to meet with the leaders of the UEDP 
- Medhin, most importantly MP-elect Lidetu Ayalew and deputy 
mayor election Alemasu.  Although many of the UEDP-Medhin 
members have joined Parliament, their leaders fear public 
recrimination if they enter, especially as the CUD press has 
attacked Lidetu for allegedly sabotaging the CUDP merger. 
Assuming the discussions improve cooperation and reduce 
tensions, this would allow the UEDP-Medhin leaders to 
announce publicly their intention to enter Parliament and 
organize its members to take over the government of Addis 
Ababa, where they won the majority of seats.  UEDP-Medhin 
could potentially supply 63 of the 71 Regional Council 
members necessary to form an opposition government in the 
capital.  At least a handful of other members elected to the 
Council under the CUD banner would have to join them.  The 
GOE remains ready to hand over the city administration, but 
will likely appoint a long-term caretaker government if 
opposition Council members-elect to do not show up within the 
next month or so. 
 
 
International Support for Democratic Progress 
 
 
10. (SBU)  Assistance to Parliament, the NEB, and the media 
by USAID and other international donors will be essential to 
supporting and consolidating progress in the GOE-opposition 
discussions.  A USAID contractor will be conducting an 
orientation program for all MPs -- including those elected by 
the CUD who have taken their seats -- during the week of Dec. 
12.  We are working intensively with other members of the 
local Donors Assistance Group (DAG) to conduct a comparative 
study of the rules of Parliamentary procedure that should 
inform GOE-opposition discussions on the need for changes to 
those rules.  We are also developing DAG proposals to respond 
to openings from PM Meles and the Speaker of Parliament for 
technical assistance and training in the area of media law 
and practice. 
 
11.  (C)  AF -- especially DAS Yamamoto and AF/E, led by 
Eunice Reddick -- is playing a essential role in our onging 
efforts to resolve Ethiopia's internal political crisis.  It 
will also be essential to maintain a united front with the 
EU.  Building democracy, calming tensions, and improving 
respect for the rule of law will contribute to a solution of 
the Eritrea/Ethiopian border dispute.   A confrontation will 
become less likely as Ethiopia becomes more stable 
internally.  Both Eritrea and Ethiopia would be better able 
to concentrate their efforts on development, rather than 
confrontation. 
HUDDLESTON