US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6884

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TEL AVIV 006884 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO FOR ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IS, KMDR, MEDIA REACTION REPORT 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
Sunday-Monday, 11-12 December 2005 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
SUBJECT COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
1.  US Pressures Israel on Safe Passage Agreement 
2.  Sharon's Kadima Political Moves 
3.  Israel and the Iranian Nuclear Program 
4.  Defense Establishment Expected View of Egypt 
 
------------------------------ 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------------ 
The Army Radio reported Sunday morning that Defense 
Minister Shaul Mofaz quit the Likud and joined Sharon's 
Kadima Party.  The move was met with a host of 
criticism.  Haaretz reported Monday that senior Kadima 
members said the move was unnecessary and damaging for 
the new party, harming its image.  Likud's Netanyahu 
said Kadima is conducting a political horse-trade and 
introducing negative norms to Israeli politics.  Senior 
Likud MK Steinitz said Mofaz is an opportunist, just 
like Peres.  Labor spokesmen, according to Haaretz, 
said this shows Kadima is a Likud replica, which should 
help Labor, and Labor Chairman Peretz said Mofaz's move 
is in line with the fact that Israeli politicians have 
long lost their values. 
Following a Sunday Times report that Prime Minister 
Ari'el Sharon has ordered the IDF to prepare for an 
attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in March 2006, the 
Jerusalem Post reported on Sunday, 11 December that 
Israeli officials declined to respond to the report 
directly, but Sharon's spokesman Ra'anan Gissin did 
say, "Israel has no intention of launching an attack 
against Iran, definitely not before all diplomatic 
options have been exhausted."  He stressed that those 
suggesting Israel will bomb Iran weren't helpful, in 
part because they "exonerate the Europeans" from taking 
action, "which is something we don't want to happen." 
He described the Europeans as "the ones who hold most 
of the cards to influence Iran."  Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos 
Gilad, head of the Defense Ministry's Foreign Policy 
Department, told Israel Radio Sunday that while a 
military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities 
could not be ruled out, the Sunday Times article that 
Israel planned to attack Iran in March 2006 is false. 
Deputy Prime Minister Olmert is cited in Maariv on 
Monday as saying that though Israel is concerned, the 
issue should be addressed by the UN and the 
international community.  NSC head Eiland told Maariv 
the report is a baseless speculation, and Foreign 
Minister Shalom added this problem should be resolved 
in the political ring. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported Sunday that as US envoy 
David Welch wrapped up his visit to the region 
Saturday, Israel maintained its stance that Palestinian 
convoys between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank are 
unacceptable due to security concerns.  "This prime 
minister is not going to repeat the mistakes of the 
past," when Israeli leaders turned "a blind eye" to PA 
transgressions, said Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's 
spokesman Ra'anan Gissin.  He said there was no change 
in Israel's policy on the convoys. 
 
Haaretz reported Monday that Israel has pledged not to 
impose a siege on the Gaza Strip that would prevent the 
import and export of goods regardless of the political 
situation.  This appears in writing in a World Bank non- 
paper drafted ahead of the donor countries' conference 
in London Wednesday.  Israel also pledged not to close 
the Karni and Erez crossings at the same time, except 
for security reasons involving both crossings.  The 
report added that the defense minister reported 
yesterday that the decision to freeze contact with the 
PA on the safe-crossing convoys between Gaza and the 
West Bank is still in force. 
 
In a related report, Haaretz said Sunday the US and the 
Quartet members last weekend increased pressure on 
Israel to complete the commitments it had undertaken in 
the crossings agreement that was signed last month.  A 
political source estimated Sunday that if the next few 
days are quiet, the crossing would open Thursday, with 
an initial trial bus going from Gaza to the West Bank. 
Senior Jerusalem political sources expressed concern 
that if the defense establishment violates this 
agreement, the donor countries' conference will 
criticize Israel.  The paper cites a recent report by 
the World Bank, drafted ahead of the donor countries' 
conference, that blames Israel for much of the economic 
distress in the territories. 
 
On Monday, Haaretz reported that the Israeli Foreign 
Ministry is accusing the EU of violating the 
international law by conducting contacts with Hizballah 
and intending to establish links with Hamas. 
 
Haaretz reported Monday that an armed Palestinian was 
killed and two were wounded during an IDF operation in 
Nablus.  In a related story, Yediot Aharonot said 
Monday that Hamas and the Islamic Jihad announced 
yesterday they will not extend the cease-fire past 
January 2006, having pledged to maintain it through the 
end of 2005.  Organization leaders are cited as saying 
the move produced no positive results.  PA Chairman Abu- 
Mazen called on them to renew the cease-fire, while the 
Israeli defense establishment estimates that the 
Palestinian organizations will refrain from violence 
only until the PA elections end and then resume their 
terror attacks. 
The Jerusalem Post reported Sunday that PA Chairman 
Mahmud Abbas on Saturday criticized Palestinian groups 
for launching rocket attacks on Israel, saying such 
actions harmed Palestinian interests.  However, Abbas 
stopped short of promising to take any action against 
those responsible for the rocket attacks.  Abbas 
reiterated his commitment to holding parliamentary 
elections on time.  Abbas's remarks came as Hamas 
reaffirmed its adherence to the hudna, but on condition 
that Israel halt its attacks.  Egyptian intelligence 
chief Gen. Omar Suleiman, who helped broker the first 
truce earlier this year, was supposed to arrive in the 
Palestinian territories last week, but has postponed 
his visit because of the latest cycle of violence. 
The Jerusalem Post reported Sunday that Palestinian 
activists have filed civil lawsuits in the US against 
former Shin Bet head Avi Dichter and former IDF chief 
Moshe Ya'alon for alleged war crimes related to the 
targeted killing of top Hamas terrorist Salah Shehade 
three years ago.  Both men are in the US at present. 
A Yediot Aharonot report Monday said Israeli and Syrian 
ambassadors in the UN offices in Geneva held direct 
contact, with Pakistani mediation, in the wake of which 
Israel withdrew its objection to having Syria become a 
member of the "informal group of countries" that is 
part of the World Trade Organization. 
The Jerusalem Post reported Sunday that Egypt put its 
installations along the Suez Canal on high alert over 
the weekend after receiving warnings of a possible 
terrorist attack by al-Qaida on ships in the strategic 
waterway.  The alert coincidentally followed a report 
in The Jerusalem Post Friday that the Israeli Navy had 
decided to avoid the Suez Canal out of concern its 
vessels would be targets for Islamic Jihad terrorists. 
Haaretz reported Sunday that hundreds of Golan Druze 
and Israeli Arabs staged a demonstration Saturday in 
support of Syria, due to the international pressure it 
is under.  This was the first stage operation by the 
Golan-based National Committee for Identification with 
Syria. 
 
1.  US Pressures Israel on Safe Passage Agreement 
 
Summary 
----------- 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post 
editorialized: "Israel entered into the Rafah agreement 
with trepidation.  But Washington's arm-twisting 
convinced Jerusalem that cameras and computer data 
streams would give Israeli security personnel 
capability to monitor what was happening at the Gaza- 
Sinai crossing.  While the issue is disputed, Israel is 
convinced that the PA is foot-dragging by not providing 
the promised real-time flow, and that members of al- 
Qaida and other Islamic terror groups have been allowed 
to enter Gaza..  Having pressured Israel into a bad 
agreement in the first place, Washington now insists 
Jerusalem stick to it.  It says Jerusalem is 
exaggerating Palestinian non-compliance; that the video 
and data issues are merely technical and anyway on the 
way to being solved." 
 
Bloc Quotes 
-------------- 
"Unsafe Passage" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post 
editorialized: "Israel entered into the Rafah agreement 
with trepidation.  But Washington's arm-twisting 
convinced Jerusalem that cameras and computer data 
streams would give Israeli security personnel 
capability to monitor what was happening at the Gaza- 
Sinai crossing.  While the issue is disputed, Israel is 
convinced that the PA is foot-dragging by not providing 
the promised real-time flow, and that members of al- 
Qaida and other Islamic terror groups have been allowed 
to enter Gaza.  The agreement also requires the PA to 
prevent the movement of weapons and explosives into 
Gaza.  Yet large amounts of these have flowed in from 
Sinai, at least before the crossing was formally 
opened.  On Saturday, the IDF uncovered a tunnel near 
the northern Strip apparently intended for a terrorist 
infiltration.  On Friday a navy patrol boat intercepted 
the third infiltration attempt by sea, in just 10 days, 
from Egypt to Gaza.  Part of the problem is the 
agreement itself - which does not actually require the 
PA to stop any terrorist just because Israel insists it 
do so.  Then there is the overall environment.  Can 
Israel abide by a paradoxical situation in which bus 
convoys of Palestinians traverse the country even as 
Palestinian missiles are being launched from Gaza, or 
as Palestinian attackers stab soldiers at checkpoints 
outside Jerusalem, or as suicide bombers slaughter 
shoppers lining up to enter a Netanya mall?  Sharon 
told US envoy David Welch that if the Palestinians 
persisted in their violent ways, Israel would not 
permit the bus convoys and would even cease tariff 
cooperation at the Karni and Erez crossings, forcing 
the PA to pay for goods shipped via Israel.  The US is 
having none of this.  Having pressured Israel into a 
bad agreement in the first place, Washington now 
insists Jerusalem stick to it.  It says Jerusalem is 
exaggerating Palestinian non-compliance; that the video 
and data issues are merely technical and anyway on the 
way to being solved." 
 
 
 
2.  Sharon's Kadima Political Moves 
 
Summary 
----------- 
Independent, left-leaning Haaretz carries a commentary 
by political analyst Yosi Verter saying:  "Sharon wants 
to smash the Likud, rip it apart, and leave nothing 
behind.  His resentment for the party he established 
and had a hard time leaving knows no boundaries. 
Mofaz' defection crumbled yet another stone.  From now 
on, it is the rebels' party (except for Foreign 
Minister Shalom and MK Michael Eytan), which is exactly 
how Sharon wanted it.  He wished to shove the Likud to 
the most extreme corner, to send it back to the times 
when Herut under Menachem Begin was a marginal and 
ridiculed party." 
 
Bloc Quotes 
-------------- 
 
"The Bulldozer's Revenge" 
 
Independent, left-leaning Haaretz carries a commentary 
by political analyst Yosi Verter saying:  "Having been 
immersed in a murky quagmire of denials, excuses, lies, 
defections, and skips and hops, the Israeli political 
system went out of its way yesterday to condemn Mofaz 
[for quitting Likud and joining Kadima], but he took it 
like a man.  His political conduct over the past few 
weeks was unprofessional.  Following someone's advise, 
he lashed at Sharon in front of every microphone and TV 
camera, thus distancing himself from Sharon's 
supporters among the Likud voters.  Once he started 
blabbering himself to death on the media, he turned 
overnight from a practical and professional defense 
minister, a natural Sharon ally, into just another 
politician.  Mofaz, however, is not the only problem. 
Sharon and his big appetite is another major problem. 
On Saturday night, three hours before Mofaz called 
Sharon's ranch, one of the prime minister's aides said 
there will be no more additions to the party.  'That's 
it,' he said, 'we should make do with what we have and 
move on.'  The aide thought so, but his boss had 
different ideas.  Sharon wants to smash the Likud, rip 
it apart, and leave nothing behind.  His resentment for 
the party he established and had a hard time leaving 
knows no boundaries.  Mofaz' defection crumbled yet 
another stone.  From now on, it is the rebels' party 
(except for Foreign Minister Shalom and MK Michael 
Eytan), which is exactly how Sharon wanted it.  He 
wished to shove the Likud to the most extreme corner, 
to send it back to the times when Herut under Menachem 
Begin was a marginal and ridiculed party.  Sharon is 
headed for that goal like a bulldozer, ignoring the 
environmental damage..  Was Mofaz' joining Kadima too 
excessive?  Probably not.  Kadima was not established 
on his move and it would not make it fail.  But Sharon 
must learn some table manners.  This is no way to 
behave.  It is not so terrible to leave something on 
the plate." 
 
3. Israel and the Iranian Nuclear Program 
 
Summary 
----------- 
 
Ofer Shelach, liberal op-ed writes in Mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot: 
"The army has never hidden the fact that it has a 
response prepared to meet the Iranian threat. The IAF 
has been training at long-range flights for years, and 
a great deal of money has been invested in building the 
long arm of the Air Force. To that end, the IAF 
purchased special planes, espionage systems and 
electronic warfare, while methods were developed and 
acquired to allow for heavily protected sites to be 
attacked. This process has been underway for more than 
a decade... The Americans take a more realistic point 
of view, which posits that it will take the Iranians 
longer to complete the process. With that having been 
said, the United States and Israel fully agree on the 
severity of the Iranian threat, an agreement that 
expressed itself in the annual strategic dialogue that 
was recently held in Washington....The US 
administration is troubled by the statements made by 
Israeli officials about a possible attack." 
 
Block quotes 
---------------- 
 
"A Clear American Message" 
 
Ofer Shelach, liberal op-ed writes in Mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot: 
"We can safely venture that there is a group of unit 
commanders in the IDF at large and in the IAF in 
particular, flight squadron commanders and combat 
troops who, if you were to wake them up in the middle 
of the night and were to whisper the right code word in 
their ear, would be on their way to Iran in no time. 
The army has never hidden the fact that it has a 
response prepared to meet the Iranian threat. The IAF 
has been training at long-range flights for years, and 
a great deal of money has been invested in building the 
long arm of the Air Force. To that end, the IAF 
purchased special planes, espionage systems and 
electronic warfare, while methods were developed and 
acquired to allow for heavily protected sites to be 
attacked. This process has been underway for more than 
a decade.   The natural assumption is that the best 
model for comparison's sake is the attack on the Iraqi 
reactor. That is the model of action that appeared 
yesterday in the Sunday Times. However, the IDF planner 
would have to be a real amateur to believe that the 
attack in Iraq could be reenacted-and the IDF planner 
is no amateur. In 1981, all it took was eight F-16s 
that made a surprise attack and destroyed a single 
target. Israel issued no ultimatum, issued no warning; 
and when it acted, it acted alone. Even its American 
allies didn't know about the attack....  One of the 
reasons that Israel has kept a low profile with regard 
to military activity is so as not to dismantle that 
coalition. That way an operation against Iran will not 
be perceived as a "Zionist plot," but as a solution to 
a world-wide problem.   Nor will there be a strategic 
surprise: any attack will be preceded by condemnation, 
sanctions and ultimatums by the member countries of the 
anti-Iranian coalition. Moreover, the attack in Iran 
will not be aimed against a lone target, since Iran's 
nuclear facilities are spread out all over the country. 
The uranium is not being enriched in the nuclear 
reactors but by means of well-hidden centrifuges. It 
would be easy to rebuild those sites quickly, so that 
attacking them might miss the mark and only encourage 
the Iranians to seek revenge and to continue to pursue 
their nuclear program with redoubled effort....  For 
the time being, the Iranians have not reactivated their 
centrifuges. Irrespective of whether the reason for 
that is technical problems or international pressure, 
it is only a matter of time before that equipment is 
put back into use. From that moment on, the countdown 
to the "point of no return" will begin-the point from 
which Iran will be capable of manufacturing nuclear 
weapons. Israeli officials say that the point of no 
return is just a few months away from the moment the 
centrifuges are reactivated. The United States says it 
will take approximately two years.  The disparity in 
assessments stems from the fact that the Israelis opt 
for the most extreme case scenario, in which the 
Iranians quickly overcome all of the limitations and 
technical difficulties they have encountered to date. 
The Americans take a more realistic point of view, 
which posits that it will take the Iranians longer to 
complete the process. With that having been said, the 
United States and Israel fully agree on the severity of 
the Iranian threat, an agreement that expressed itself 
in the annual strategic dialogue that was recently held 
in Washington.   That agreement notwithstanding, the US 
administration is troubled by the statements made by 
Israeli officials about a possible attack. For 
instance, administration officials have heard formal 
Israeli officials say that the diplomatic effort has 
failed, and intuit that the second, unstated part of 
that sentence comes in the form of a military 
operation. In the current state of affairs, what with 
the Iraqi house of cards on the verge of collapse, the 
last thing the administration needs is an independent 
Israeli operation in Iran. As such, it is safe to 
assume that the messages the Americans have conveyed to 
Israel about a possible Israeli military strike have 
left no room for any misunderstanding. " 
 
4.  Defense Establishment Expected View of Egypt 
 
Summary 
----------- 
 
Liberal op-ed columnist Ofer Shelah writes in 
pluralist, mass-circulation Yediot Aharonot:  "Although 
the peace agreement with Egypt has been stable for a 
quarter of a century, we are about to hear a lot of 
warnings about Egypt.  Why is that?  Because our 
traditional enemies, certainly those who had an army 
that could have been presented as posing a threat to 
Israel, are gradually vanishing.  There is a fear here 
that on the day we realize that we have built a massive 
military force, at an enormous cost, one that has 
excess force that faces zero-probability threats but 
cannot guarantee a victory in the real campaigns -- 
because if the goals of wars are not defined, you can 
never win them -- we will start asking too many 
questions.  It is much simpler, natural, and almost 
obvious to warn us against the old devils.  So, get 
ready: you are going to hear a lot about Egypt next 
year." 
 
Bloc Quotes 
-------------- 
 
"Get Ready for the Next Enemy" 
 
Liberal op-ed columnist Ofer Shelah writes in 
pluralist, mass-circulation Yediot Aharonot:  "In the 
coming year, you will hear a lot about Egypt.  Despite 
the surprising friendship between Prime Minister Ari'el 
Sharon and Egyptian President Husni Mubarak (and some 
speakers say because of it), despite the fact that 
Egypt played a crucial role in the unwritten agreements 
between Israel and Egypt that allowed for the current 
lull, and although the peace agreement with Egypt has 
been stable for a quarter of a century, we are about to 
hear a lot of warnings about Egypt.  Why is that? 
Because our traditional enemies, certainly those who 
had an army that could have been presented as posing a 
threat to Israel, are gradually vanishing.  Very few 
Israelis believe the propaganda maneuvers concerning 
Syria..  Although the defense establishment is bragging 
a lot, we are gradually acknowledging the fact that an 
Iranian threat exists, but its solution would not be 
military..  And the Saudi threat is really not making 
an impression.  So only Egypt is left..  This is not a 
conspiracy devised by the budget-thirsty defense 
establishment.  It follows from a worldview that is 
fundamentally based on suspicion..  There is a fear 
here that on the day we realize that we have built a 
massive military force, at an enormous cost, one that 
has excess force and faces zero-probability threats, 
but cannot guarantee a victory in the real campaigns -- 
because if the goals of wars are not defined, you can 
never win them -- we will start asking too many 
questions.  It is much simpler, natural, and almost 
obvious to warn us against the old devils.  So, get 
ready: you are going to hear a lot about Egypt next 
year." 
JONES