US embassy cable - 05AMMAN9559

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009559 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQ SUNNI OUTREACH: AMMAN MEETING WITH IRAQ 
ELECTION CANDIDATE HASSIB AL-OBEIDI 
 
REF: A. BAGHDAD 4857 
     B. AMMAN 8259 
 
Classified By: DANIEL RUBINSTEIN, DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION, REASONS: 1.4 
 (B &D) 
 
1.  (C) In a December 3 meeting with Emboff, "Arab List" 
candidate Dr. Hassib al-Obeidi predicted that his party would 
win between 3-5 seats in this week's Iraqi election.  Obeidi 
is running as number one on the party's list in Kirkuk, 
followed by Sheikh Wasfi al-Asi al-Obeidi, a prominent leader 
of the al-Obeidi tribe.  Hassib is hoping for a big tribal 
outpouring to put him over the top.  After a dalliance with 
Allawi, Hassib joined the Islamic Party/Adnan Dulaim 
coalition, but pulled out at the last minute because he 
thought that their overall list was too aggressively clerical. 
 
Alleged Crypto-Ba,athist Election Activities 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) Hassib claimed that Ba'athist elements are working 
behind the scenes to position themselves in the new assembly. 
 He cited Diyala as one governorate where 
"crypto-Ba,athists" are well organized, and supporting 
certain small party candidates who are likely to do well. 
However, he said that the Islamic party coalition is likely 
to be the main contender in Diyala. 
 
Comments on Kurdish Parties - Money for Kirkuk? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Hassib claimed to know the leadership of both main 
Kurdish parties well, and observed that Kirkuk "is the only 
glue that keeps them together."  He mused that a financial 
settlement involving shares for the Kurds (read Talabani and 
Barzani) in the Kirkuk oil fields might be a way of resolving 
the Kirkuk political problem.  Hassib criticized the two 
Kurdish parties for not campaigning outside the Kurdish area, 
and claimed that a serious effort on their part could have 
given them some seats in the south and elsewhere.  He opined 
that this reflects a deal with the Shi,te coalition, as well 
as the Kurdish parties overall provincial focus, and lack of 
real interest in Iraq as opposed to Kurdistan.  (Embassy 
Baghdad Comment: In fact, the Kurdish parties have lists in 
multiple districts, including Baghdad, Wasit, and even 
Qadisiyah.  Hassib doesn't know what he's talking about - a 
fact that is in itself interesting.  End Embassy Baghdad 
Comment.) 
 
4.  (C) Hassib predicted that no political grouping will get 
a comfortable majority after the election, and claimed that 
everybody - including SCIRI and Dawa - will end up 
negotiating with everybody else.  He suggested that an 
"Italian-like" situation of various coalitions succeeding 
each other is likely to emerge as Iraq's future political 
pattern. 
 
5.  (C) Hassib echoed comments we've heard from others about 
the unusual political positioning of the al-Gaaod's of Anbar. 
 Although a small tribe, family representatives enjoy 
prominent places throughout the political spectrum, which he 
cynically speculated is no accident.  Apart from Sattam 
al-Gaaod, in prison due to his Saddam ties and for supporting 
the insurgency, he noted: 
 
Talal al-Gaaod - number one on Allawi's list in Anbar; 
 
Fassal al-Gaaod - ex-Anbar Governor, now running with Ahmed 
Chalabi 
 
Muzdif al-Gaaod - associate of Abdul Latif Humayum, now 
working closely with Saleh Mutlak 
 
Majid al-Gaaod - tied to Adnan Dulaimi 
 
Bezir al-Gaaod (Talal's father) - maintaining back-channel 
contacts with SCIRI leader al-Hakim. 
 
De-Ba,athification Concerns 
---------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Hassib expressed concern that he may be one of those 
targeted by the de-Ba,athification committee for removal 
from the election rolls (see Ref A).  While acknowledging 
that he served in Saddam,s (quite large) executive office, 
he claimed he never gave a pro-Saddam speech or published a 
pro-Saddam article, and never informed on anyone, instead 
depicting himself as a rarely-consulted academic advisor on 
international issues.   Note:  Hassib met Ambassador 
Khalilzad, along with Dr. Iyad Allawi, in Amman last October 
(Ref B).  He frequently travels to Amman.  End Note. 
 
7.  (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Baghdad. 
HALE