US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6877

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 006877 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/IPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KPAL, KDEM, KPKO, LE, SY, IS, IR, TU, AE, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: ISRAELIS DELIBERATELY "AMBIGUOUS" ON PALESTINIAN 
ELECTIONS ACCORDING TO NSA EILAND 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) AND (d). 
 
1.  (S) SUMMARY: National Security Advisor Giora Eiland and 
Deputy National Security Advisor Eran Etzion told NEA 
Assistant Secretary David Welch December 9 that the GOI has 
adopted a deliberately "ambiguous" approach to Palestinian 
Authority (PA) elections "so the PA can't blame Israel for 
the postponement of the elections."  The GOI has not yet 
decided, Eiland reported, whether to permit Palestinians to 
vote in East Jerusalem.  Eiland also stressed that if 
Benyamin Netanyahu wins the December 19 Likud party election 
and pulls Likud out of the government, then it is unclear who 
will serve in the vital role of Defense Minister for the next 
three months, since Sharon is prevented from assuming that 
position himself.  Eiland said initiation of convoys to 
transport Palestinians from Gaza to the West Bank through 
Israel depends on Palestinian cooperation at Rafah.  Welch 
said the USG is committed to the successful implementation of 
the November 15 Agreement on Movement and Access.  "When 
we've resolved these problems, we expect you to return to the 
agreement," A/S Welch underscored, "and we expect it to be 
done by December 15."  Eiland added that Shin Bet believes 
the Rafah crossing and a link between Gaza and the West Bank 
will lead to the transfer of weapons capabilities from Gaza 
to the West Bank.  Eiland also reported that in recent 
meetings in Paris he learned from French officials that they 
"do not want to touch Hizballah right now" because the 
Lebanese government is weak and a confrontation with 
Hizballah will weaken it further.  French officials, 
according to Eiland, are not interested in what happens in 
Syria unless it affects Lebanon.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
GOI STANCE ON PA ELECTIONS: DELIBERATE AMBIGUITY 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2.  (C) Eiland said some Palestinian leaders have begun to 
break from the Fatah party, including Palestinian Authority 
(PA) Finance Minister Salam Fayyad, in what Eiland described 
as an effort to mimic the recent splintering of political 
parties in Israel.  For a variety of reasons, Eiland 
explained, key leaders of the PA, including President Mahmud 
Abbas, seek to postpone parliamentary elections scheduled for 
January 2006.  No one among these leaders wants to "blink 
first," according to Eiland, by publicly pushing to delay the 
elections.  In order to find an excuse to reschedule the 
elections, PA leaders may blame GOI policies, Eiland said. 
As a result of this concern, Eiland reported, the GOI has 
carefully crafted its policy line on the Palestinian 
elections.  "We keep our positions vague," he explained, "so 
the PA can't blame Israel for the postponement of their 
elections.  If Israel says it's not ok to do A, B, or C, then 
they can blame us for preventing them from holding free and 
fair elections." 
 
3.  (C) Eiland said the GOI has thus adopted a deliberately 
"ambiguous" stand in deciding "not to interfere but not to 
assist" with the Palestinian elections.  Eiland explained 
that while the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip do not require 
GOI assistance to hold elections, in the West Bank they need 
the GOI to permit PA officials, notably police, freedom of 
movement so that they can secure ballots and voting stations. 
 "In the last PA election we let their security people move 
freely," Eiland said, "and if we don't do it again, then it 
will be hard for them to monitor the elections and control 
the election process."  In addition, Eiland explained, during 
prior elections the GOI set up a combined command and control 
center to enable Palestinian officials to respond immediately 
to crises. "If we don't establish a similar combined 
headquarters," Eiland said, "there will be difficulties for 
the PA." 
 
4.  (C) Eiland said that for symbolic reasons the GOI wants 
Palestinians to vote outside of East Jerusalem.  He claimed 
Palestinians want to vote inside East Jerusalem for similar 
"symbolic reasons."  The GOI has not yet, Eiland reported, 
adopted a final position on this issue.  "We need discussion 
on this issue and clarity between us," Welch responded. 
Welch said it may be possible to use this period before 
elections to impose limits on Hamas, possibly though a code 
of conduct, or through an initiative of the Quartet.  The 
USG, Welch stressed, intends to encourage an international 
consensus that will provide clarity and keep the role of 
extremists in proper perspective; our ability to do so would 
be affected by other positions Israel takes.  Eiland and his 
deputy, Eran Etzion, said codes of conduct used in Iraq and 
Afghanistan might be instructive for dealing with Hamas. 
Welch acknowledged these precedents, but suggested that a 
strong international position may be more effective than a 
long list of demands. 
------------------------- 
ISRAELI DOMESTIC POLITICS 
------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Eiland said that the December 19 Likud leadership 
vote is important because it will determine the composition 
of the Israeli government until the March elections.  If 
Benyamin Netanyahu is elected to lead Likud, Eiland claimed, 
then he will pull the Likud party immediately out of the 
government.  Since Sharon is prevented from assuming the 
portfolio of Defense Minister, it is unclear who might fill 
this important role should Mofaz depart.  Whoever serves as 
Defense Minister, Eiland emphasized, will have much 
influence, and may be in that position for up to three 
months.  If Mofaz or Shalom is elected to lead Likud, 
however, Eiland said they will likely keep Likud in the 
government. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
PASSAGE: CONVOY A SECURITY ISSUE; TUNNEL A POLITICAL ISSUE 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
6.  (C) Eiland said the initiation of convoys to transport 
Palestinians from Gaza to the West Bank through Israel 
depends on Palestinian cooperation at Rafah.  When pressed 
about the November 15 agreement's stipulation that convoys 
begin on December 15, Eiland asked, "What's more important, 
the timetable or performance?"  It is not a practical problem 
to stick to the timeline, Eiland said, but doing so must 
depend upon the performance of PA officials.  "We get the 
feeling," Eiland reported, "that the Palestinians will get 
concessions regardless of what they do or don't do."  Welch 
said the USG shares his concerns and is pressing the 
Palestinians.  "We have a real seriousness of purpose to 
implement the agreement," Welch said, emphasizing that the 
problems at Rafah are being resolved now.  Welch explained 
that the USG has even improved signal transmission at Rafah 
to the GOI faster than fifteen minutes, which had been the 
baseline performance demanded by the GOI in November.  "When 
we've resolved these problems, we expect you to return to the 
agreement," Welch underlined, "and we expect it to be done by 
December 15." 
 
7.  (C) With regard to Palestinians transiting across Israel, 
Eiland said Prime Minister Ariel Sharon perceives a 
fundamental difference between convoys and a permanent 
passage such as a railroad, highway, or tunnel.  PM Sharon 
maintains that convoys require security assurances while 
passages require political negotiations.  A permanent 
structure of passages will affect Israeli contiguity, Eiland 
explained, and would serve as a bargaining chip for securing 
Israeli passages through Palestinian territory in final 
status talks.  Highways such as 443 (linking Tel Aviv and 
Jerusalem via Modin and Palestinian territory) must serve 
Israelis -- and maybe only Israelis -- just as similar 
arteries cutting through Israeli territory will serve only 
Palestinians.  Permanent Palestinian passages through Israel, 
Eiland summarized, must therefore fall within a final status 
agreement that also allows for permanent Israeli passages 
through Palestine.  Welch said that the USG perceives the 
convoys as a political issue: "The convoy is not a permanent 
solution," Welch stressed, "but it is a positive step 
enhancing access." 
 
8.  (S) Eiland said that Shin Bet believes the Rafah crossing 
and a link between Gaza and the West Bank will lead to the 
transfer of weapons capabilities from Gaza to the West Bank, 
a point reiterated subsequently at the MOD by Amos Gilad 
(septel).  In the past three months, Eiland reported, the GOI 
has captured two teams of Palestinians that traveled from the 
West Bank to Jordan, Egypt, Gaza and back to Jenin in an 
attempt to transfer illicit technology.  Qassam rockets in 
the West Bank, Eiland warned, will change the overall 
security situation.  Eiland also claimed that members of Al 
Qaeda and Hizballah have entered Gaza through Rafah.  "In 
general," Welch responded, "if you don't have prior 
intelligence about a specific individual, then you could face 
this problem on any front.  To evaluate individuals you rely 
on cooperation from the USG, the EU, and the Egyptians." 
Eiland replied, "Yes, that's why we can take this risk and 
agree with you on convoys." 
 
------------------------------------------- 
PARIS POSTSCRIPT ON SYRIA, LEBANON AND IRAN 
------------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Eiland also reported that in recent meetings in Paris 
he learned from French officials that they "do not want to 
touch Hizballah right now" because the Lebanese government is 
weak and a confrontation with Hizballah will weaken it 
further.  French officials, according to Eiland, are not 
interested in what happens in Syria unless it affects 
Lebanon.  Eiland said the French believe that the February 
conference on Lebanon may offer an opportunity to discuss 
border cooperation with the Lebanese.  While French officials 
seek to maintain UNIFIL, Eiland said, the Israelis seek to 
phase it out.  With regard to Iran, Eiland said that French 
officials believe uranium conversion is fine, but uranium 
enrichment must be prevented; Eiland added that these 
officials claim they have a green light on this approach from 
the USG and others. 
 
10. (U) NEA A/S Welch cleared this message. 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
JONES