US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6876

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006876 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PTER, KWBG, KPAL, IS, JO, LE, SY, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, COUNTERTERRORISM, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: GILAD TELLS A/S WELCH PA ACTION AGAINST PIJ AND 
SMUGGLERS REMAINS INSUFFICIENT 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (S) Summary: In a December 9 meeting after that with 
Defense Minister Mofaz (septel), MOD Pol-Mil Director Amos 
Gilad told A/S Welch, the Ambassador, and Col. Dugger (USSC) 
that he is concerned that Fatah is replacing its "old guard" 
with extremists.  He assessed that if this trend continues, a 
more extremist Fatah and Hamas could be in power after the 
Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections in January. 
Gilad acknowledged that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has 
arrested some Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) members in the 
West Bank, but charged that the PA arrested the wrong people 
and did not touch any terrorists in Gaza.  Gilad expressed 
concern about a recently-enacted PA law (sic) that offers 
state compensation to the families of so-called "martyrs." 
He noted that the GOI is trying to determine if the term 
"martyrs" includes those who commit terrorist acts.  Gilad 
claimed that terrorists are smuggling weapons experts across 
the Egyptian border into Gaza, echoing a point raised by 
National Security Advisor Eiland (septel).  Gilad highlighted 
the importance of "tight" U.S.-GOI communication about 
possible Syrian provocative action to deflect attention from 
the release of the Mehlis report.  End Summary. 
 
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Fatah Old Guard Fading 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Gilad told A/S Welch that Fatah's old guard is being 
replaced with "extremists."  If Fatah obtains 40 percent 
support in the January PLC elections, and Hamas 30 percent, 
then two extremist factions could be in power, Gilad 
projected.  Gilad suggested that Welch raise this "gloomy" 
possibility with PA officials. 
 
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Acting Against PIJ, and Weapons and Terrorist Smuggling 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
3.  (S) Gilad assessed that because of USG pressure, the PA 
started to arrest PIJ members, but, he asserted, "not the 
right ones."  He claimed that the PA arrested some 30 PIJ 
members in the West Bank, but "didn't touch terrorists," or 
make any arrests in Gaza.  Gilad added that he has very 
reliable, "sensitive information" that terrorist groups have 
smuggled weapons experts from Egypt into Gaza who can upgrade 
rocket capabilities, although he claimed that he does not 
have the names of any of these experts.  He stressed that the 
PA needs an additional "incentive" to become more effective 
in controlling passages.  Mofaz Chief of Staff Brig. General 
Dangot, who also attended the meeting, added that in the last 
10 days, Qassam rockets targeted more than 10 Israeli 
villages near the Gaza border.  He claimed that Palestinian 
terrorists also tried to target the Kerem Shalom crossing. 
He charged that the PA has not acted against these rocket 
attacks. 
 
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Gilad: Syria is Nervous 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Gilad said he sensed Syria's nervousness about the 
issuance of the Mehlis Report next week, and he expressed 
concern that Syria could try to provoke or even attack Israel 
if it feels vulnerable to attack itself.  Welch noted that 
the report may become public as early as the upcoming 
weekend.  He concurred with Gilad on the need for the U.S. 
and Israel to stay in close communication about the evolving 
situation surrounding issuance of the report.  Gilad said he 
understands that there is a Pakistani candidate to succeed 
Mehlis. 
 
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Martyrs Law 
----------- 
 
5.  (C) Gilad raised his concern about a recently-enacted PA 
law -- which he claimed was not yet made public -- that could 
require state compensation to families of so-called 
"martyrs."  He said that the GOI is still trying to determine 
whether the term "martyrs" includes terrorists.  Gilad 
claimed that former PA Finance Minister Fayyad "promised" 
Gilad that such a law would not be enacted.  Gilad said that 
if the law does include terrorists, it will be very 
problematic in Israel.  He recommended that Welch raise this 
issue in his meetings with PA officials.  (FYI:  Fayyad said, 
in a later conversation, that he knew of no/no new law; a law 
of this sort passed some months ago, but he had "buried it" 
by declaring it unconstitutional.) 
 
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The Jordan Vacuum 
----------------- 
 
6.  (C) While assessing that relations between Israel and 
Jordan are "wonderful," Gilad expressed concern about what he 
termed was a political "vacuum" developing in Jordan.  He 
claimed that Jordanian government and army officials are 
being replaced with weaker successors.  He said this trend is 
something that should be tracked. 
 
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