US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4928

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004928 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PREL, PTER, PHUM, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: VP GHAZI AL-YAWAR PREDICTS ALLAWI WILL BE PM 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Vice President Shaykh Ghazi al-Yawar told Ambassador 
on December 8 that only one of two groups will dominate after 
the December 15 election: the Allawi group (in which Shaykh 
Ghazi is running) or the "pro-Iranian group" (the Shia 
Alliance).  Many Shia, Ghazi explained, particularly the 
secular and tribal groups, fear Iranian influence and will 
vote for the Allawi coalition.  Ghazi said he hopes Allawi's 
coalition will win 55 seats. If the Shia Alliance wins fewer 
than 100 seats, he added, there is a good chance for a 
brokered coalition government formed by Ayad Allawi.  Other 
groups -- including Chalabi's moderate Shia coalition and the 
Sunni Arab Tawafoq coalition -- will work with Allawi, as 
will the Kurds, Ghazi elaborated.  The chances for a unity 
government are also good, Ghazi predicted, since VP Abd' 
al-Mahdi is pragmatic and will join in.  Shaykh Ghazi said he 
might seek the post of National Assembly Speaker rather than 
an executive post in the new government. 
 
2. (C) Shaykh Ghazi complained about some election hiccups 
including the De-Ba'athification Commission's attempt to 
disqualify nearly 200 candidates.  Ghazi called this a purely 
political move, engineered by Ahmad Chalabi, to discredit the 
Allawi coalition by painting their Sunni partners as 
Ba'athists.  Among those charged by the Commission is Shaykh 
Adnan al-Janabi, who Ghazi said was a former communist and 
never a member of the Ba'ath Party.  Ghazi said he is not 
worried, however, because the IECI referred the Commission's 
list of "Ba'ath" candidates to the Presidency Council, which 
will take no action before the election. 
 
3. (C) According to Shaykh Ghazi, the current Coalition 
military campaigns in Anbar and around Baghdad are unwise and 
will hurt Sunni outreach efforts because they cause 
bitterness that takes weeks to subside.  Ghazi said that 
although he understands the Coalition does not want to give 
the bad guys a break, the operations are causing unnecessary 
resentment close to the election.  Using jets and attack 
helicopters against cities and villages is also unacceptable, 
he said.  If such attacks are to be used at all, he asserted, 
they should be highly-targeted lightning strikes -- like 
operations conducted by the Israelis. 
 
4 (C) The Allawi coalition is conducting an aggressive 
campaign in Ninawa, where voter participation is expected to 
be high.  Ghazi, who plans to spend a few days campaigning in 
Ninawa, said that 80% will for the Allawi alliance -- 
everyone except the Kurds.  Support is particularly high in 
the Sunni tribal areas of Ninawa. 
KHALILZAD