US embassy cable - 05SANTIAGO2485

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 002485 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CI 
SUBJECT: EVE OF CHILE'S ELECTIONS: NO PRESIDENTIAL WINNER 
LIKELY IN FIRST ROUND 
 
REF: A. SANTIAGO 2368 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     B. SANTIAGO 2447 
 
1. Summary: Two days before the elections, Concertacion 
presidential candidate Michelle Bachelet leads the polls to 
succeed Ricardo Lagos as Chile's next president, but there is 
only a small chance she will win the more than 50 percent of 
the vote necessary for a first round victory.  With a January 
15 run-off election likely, the main question on most 
Chileans' minds is who will be Bachelet's opponent in the 
run-off election: National Renewal's (RN) Sebastian Pinera, 
or the Independent Democratic Union's (UDI) Joaquin Lavin.  A 
number of the congressional races remain close, with the 
center-left Concertacion hoping for a working majority in 
both houses and the Alianza opposition fighting hard to pull 
even.  The official campaign season has ended.  Polls are 
scheduled to open early on Sunday, December 11, with 
preliminary results in the presidential race possibly 
available as early as 1700 local time (1500 EST).  End 
summary. 
 
Run-off Election: All but Certain 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. The December 11 presidential elections will be Chile's 
fourth since the end of the Pinochet era in 1989.  The 
previous three were judged free and fair, and there is no 
reason to expect otherwise for this one.  To date, there have 
been no notable allegations of corruption, campaign 
irregularities, or external influence -- other than 
half-humorous reports that Argentine First Lady Fernandez de 
Kirchner would accompany Bachelet on the campaign trail this 
week, an event that did not materialize. 
 
3. According to the latest polls, Concertacion candidate 
Michelle Bachelet remains the front-runner at around 40 
percent, with RN's Sebastian Pinera and UDI's Joaquin Lavin 
each around 20 percent (ref a).  With none of the candidates 
expected to win more than 50 percent of the vote, a January 
15 run-off election between the top two vote-getters is all 
but certain.  UDI and RN recently reiterated their campaign 
pledge to unite forces behind the candidate who moves on to 
the second round, a pledge most observers consider essential 
for either Pinera or Lavin to have a shot at defeating 
Bachelet. 
 
4. Chileans also will be voting for 20 of the elected 38 
Senators, and all 120 of the members of the Chamber of 
Deputies (ref b).  While the Concertacion coalition is 
looking to possibly increase its slight majority in both 
houses, the Alianza opposition is hoping to win a few of the 
many contested seats to be able to force tie votes in both 
houses. 
 
Campaign Period Over 
-------------------- 
 
5. As of December 9, no more campaign advertising is allowed. 
 Polls are scheduled to open at 0700 on December 11 and close 
at approximately 1700.  Using the last presidential elections 
(1999) as a guide, preliminary results -- including whether a 
run-off will be necessary -- may be announced by late 
afternoon, especially if voters turn out early.  In the case 
of the congressional races, initial results may not be 
available until later. 
KELLY