US embassy cable - 05WARSAW4020

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 004020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2020 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: LAW AND JUSTICE IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Governing Law and Justice (PiS) officials 
are pursuing a strategy of dividing and conquering right-wing 
and nationalist Polish parties, and pondering whether to call 
early elections -- perhaps as soon as early 2006 -- to 
strengthen their position.  The main opposition, PiS's 
would-have-been coalition partner Civic Platform (PO), 
remains in relative disarray, but continues to poll close to 
PiS despite its reduced profile.  PiS officials are moving 
forward with their ambitious agenda, notably with plans to 
reshape the Justice and Interior ministries.   To proceed, 
PiS will need the support of its unofficial partners, 
Samoobrona (SO) and the League of Polish Families (LPR), the 
very parties whose supporters it seeks to nab.  End Summary. 
 
PiS Enjoys a Governing Honeymoon 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Buoyed by recent polls showing strong support for the 
new government, Law and Justice (PiS) officials are enjoying 
a honeymoon of sorts with the Polish public, but are 
cognizant that it may prove short-lived.  PM Marcinkiewicz, 
President-elect Lech Kaczynski and his twin brother, PiS 
party chief and consummate power broker, Jaroslaw, are 
wasting little time to consolidate their conservative base 
and press ahead on a range of political proposals, including 
the overhaul of the Justice Ministry, creation of an 
anti-corruption czar, eliminating military courts and an 
ambitious reorganization of the Interior Ministry, much of 
which requires legislation.  To proceed, PiS will need to 
muster the necessary support from the fringe parties in the 
Polish Sejm -- the Polish Peasants Party (PSL), Self Defense 
(SO) and the League of Polish Families (LPR) -- the parties 
which voted in favor of Marcinkiewicz's government.  Recent 
polls show conservative support shifting to PiS and away from 
these smaller parties.  SO's infamous populist leader, 
Andrzej Lepper, has flipped neatly on a range of issues to 
suggest that he was more in synch with PiS all along.  LPR 
chief Roman Giertych, who has seen a slide in public support, 
is less quiescent, calling for the dismissal of Treasury 
Minister Andrzej Mikosz and signaling opposition to the GOP's 
economic program.  It is impossible to predict how these or 
the more centrist PO will vote on individual pieces of 
legislation. 
 
Elections Next Spring? 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Piotr Tutak, the Secretary of State in the PM's 
Chancellery, and Adam Bielan, spokesman for the party, in 
separate conversations with the DCM and poloffs confirmed 
that PiS is actively continuing to try to siphon off voters 
from LPR and SO, pursuing a big tent policy that will 
consolidate their conservative voting base.  Bielan admitted 
that he was in a minority within the party that still 
believed in an eventual coalition with PO -- presumably after 
PiS shores up its fragile majority -- and speculated that it 
might be dangerous to move PiS too far to the right.  "It 
will take years to return to the center," Bielan told poloff 
on December 5.  Tutak was much clearer in seeing PiS seeking 
to establish itself as the conservative party in Poland. 
 
4.  (C) No one within PiS expects their unexpected allies in 
SO and LPR to be too quiet for too long.  To capitalize on 
their relative strength, both Tutak and Bielan said that PiS 
will call for early elections, almost surely within two 
years, but perhaps as early as the spring.  Tutak doubted 
whether PiS would be in a position to win an outright 
majority, but thought that it could come close.  For their 
part, SO and LPR may opt to support the government since 
their reduced polling numbers point to failure in a possible 
new electoral round. 
 
5.  (C) One scenario batted around in the press and mentioned 
by Tutak would have President Kaczynski call early elections 
this spring if the Sejm fails to pass a budget by February 
15, an option provided under the Polish Constitution. 
Although attractive from current poll numbers, this strategy 
is not without risk.  Many speculate that meager Polish 
turnout for the last round of elections would fall even 
further, both due to voter fatigue and a sense of distrust 
from voters, who expected a coalition between PiS and PO. 
Current poll figures suggest a similar result to the last 
election, namely PiS and PO in rough equality, followed far 
behind by a cluster of smaller parties.  Such a result could 
provide PiS and PO an opportunity to restart negotiations 
over a possible coalition -- which some within PiS and PO 
think likely, or leave PiS in the position of once again 
depending on small parties to support a minority government. 
 
Wooing Radio Maryja's Loyal Listeners 
------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) PiS clearly is making an effort to supplant LPR as 
the political darling of conservative Catholic Radio Maryja. 
Its founder, Father Tadeusz Rydzyk, held a special mass for 
7000 loyal listeners on December 7 to celebrate the radio 
station's 14th anniversary of going on the air.  Speaker of 
the Sejm Marek Jurek was on hand, the latest in a regular 
string of PiS officials to travel to Torun to be interviewed 
by the station.  PM Marcinkiewicz pointedly made Radio Maryja 
his first media stop after winning his vote of confidence, an 
unambiguous signal of the value PiS places on "the Catholic 
voice in (Polish) homes." 
 
Opposition in Disarray 
---------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The threat of early elections may spur the opposition 
to stop its collective head scratching, post-election 
malaise.  PO's failure at the polls has fanned competition 
between party leaders Jan Rokita and Donald Tusk.  PO's 
Secretary General, Grzegorz Schetyna, told poloff on December 
 
SIPDIS 
8 that the soul searching was not surprising since PO had 
spent most of the last two years preparing to govern. 
Schetyna said that early elections were risky for PiS, but 
that ultimately PiS and PO were logical partners for a 
coalition.  This statement runs counter to what PiS's Bielan 
told poloff, namely that Schetyna was the only member of PO 
adamantly opposed to the coalition, and was decisive in 
scuttling the talks.  It is also counter to some statements 
by Rokita about his vision of building PO into the natural 
counterweight to PiS, in a political scene in which these two 
parties dominate.  But there is constant talk of divisions 
within PO. 
 
8.  (C) PM Marcinkiewicz still has a road to travel to 
convince the majority of Poles that he can operate freely 
without the tacit approval of party chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski. 
 Adam Bielan repeated a story rumored in the press that 
Jaroslaw long ago decided to forego the premiership for 
health reasons, along with the recognition that it would be 
unacceptable to have identical twins in the two top jobs. 
Bielan said that the PM must work eighteen hour days, while 
Jaroslaw, with fewer burdens, can spend more time charting 
the course of the party (note:  and no doubt, the country. 
End note).  But Jaroslaw clearly does some directing from 
behind the scenes, including imposing an unwanted Chief of 
Staff on Marcinkiewicz. 
 
9.  (C) Bielan described himself as part of a trio of PiS 
officials, along with Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Michal Kaminski, 
who operate as a kind of think tank for the party, with fewer 
responsibilities in day-to-day governing. This free-lance 
position does have its downside.  Relating a story of Angela 
Merkel's visit to Poland on December 2, Bielan noted that she 
met with Lech Kaczynski and PM Marcinkiewicz, but "couldn't 
meet with the really important guy" (Jaroslaw) owing to his 
lack of a formal office.  (Note:  The German Embassy in 
Warsaw claimed that Merkel didn't have time in her schedule 
to travel to the outskirts of Warsaw to meet with Jaroslaw 
Kaczynski. End note). 
 
Three Different Blocs with Influence 
------------------------------------ 
 
10.  (C) PM Marcinkiewicz also enjoys an upswing of support, 
which may help him to emerge from the Kaczynski brothers' 
shadow.  PiS officials and others describe three different 
blocs within the government:  at the top of the heap are the 
Kaczynski brothers and their closest political allies, such 
as Interior Minister and Deputy PM Ludwik Dorn and Justice 
Minister Zbigniew Ziobro.  A second bloc is made up of 
conservatives from the old Right-Wing Christian-National 
Union (ZChN), such as Marcinkiewicz and Sejm Speaker Jurek, 
who operate on an outer tier.  The third bloc is made up of 
experts, like FM Stefan Meller and Finance Minister Teresa 
Lubinska.  (Note:  Defense Minister Radek Sikorski is 
variously described as either in the second or third tier. 
End note).  It is not clear at this early stage whether these 
experts will have sufficient maneuvering room to operate 
freely (perhaps because PiS has put its own people into those 
ministries where it wishes to make its biggest impact 
politically), or whether they will be weak players in the 
government.  Lubinska has already caused a flap over comments 
she made that were critical of the British supermarket chain, 
Tesco (Poland's largest foreign investor), and on monetary 
policy, which had to be walked back by the PM himself. 
 
11.  (C) Comment:  PiS and the Kaczynskis are riding high, 
with poll ratings continuing to climb.  But they face serious 
challenges delivering on campaign promises, and the potential 
of fractures inside the party as it pulls in an increasingly 
diverse group of supporters.  End comment. 
ASHE