US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA3629

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 003629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, PREL, Elections 
SUBJECT: ANTI-AMERICAN RHETORIC IN THE CANADIAN ELECTION: 
NOTHING PERSONAL, BUT THERE IS A CAMPAIGN ON 
 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.5 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C/NF) Summary: As the themes in the ongoing campaign take 
shape it appears that the United States will be in the second 
tier, although this could change as this hotly contested race 
takes off and the parties scramble to gain traction.  At 
present the primary themes are health and child care, the 
economy, taxation, and corruption; secondary issues are 
foreign policy, the environment, trade, and relations with 
the U.S.  Each party will play the U.S. card differently. 
The Conservatives will take pains to dodge accusations of 
being in bed with the U.S. and selling out to its 
"unilateralist" foreign policy, while demonstrating that they 
could do a better job of getting Washington's attention on 
what matters to Canadians.  The Liberals will emphasize their 
ability to stand up to the U.S., especially on softwood, 
without getting co-opted to compromise on important Canadian 
issues.  The Bloc will be less likely to "harp" directly 
about the U.S. on anything, except where it facilitates 
Liberal-bashing.  And the NDP will flog the issue of creeping 
Americanization -- in health care, foreign policy, and the 
pro-business environment -- suggesting it could do a better 
job than both Conservatives and Liberals of maintaining 
Canada's unique identity. 
 
2. (C/NF) There will also be local issues that take 
prominence -- in Toronto, for example, U.S.-origin guns will 
be one of the key themes in urban ridings, and in Manitoba 
pollution from the Devils Lake outlet will undoubtedly be 
raised.  And other issues will simply be worked into the 
day's events, such as the PM's comments about the U.S. not 
cooperating with the international community on climate 
change.  The Ambassador was told by Ambassador McKenna that 
the race this time will be particularly nasty and that we 
should expect that the U.S. will be used as a political 
target of opportunity.  But as our Canadian friends remind us 
constantly -- don't take it personal, it's just politics up 
north.  End Summary 
 
LIBERALS -- STANDING UP TO THE AMERICANS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) PM Martin has been caught between two competing 
demands with regard to relations with the U.S.  On the one 
hand he won the leadership race in 2004 with the promise that 
he would improve bilateral relations after the rocky road 
Chretien had led Canada down.  But knowing that Chretien was 
playing to a popular dislike for certain U.S. foreign and 
social policies, he opened the campaign with this defining 
statement: "we are different than the United States.  We want 
to be different than the United States.  We want to be 
Canada, and we are Canada and we're proud of it."  These two 
themes -- we will guard the distinctiveness of Canada while 
maintaining good relations with our key trading partner, have 
provided the brackets of Liberal Party cross-border policy, 
at times a conflictive morass. 
 
4. (C) A taste of the cross-border issues that could come up 
for the Liberals during the campaign were on display in the 
last Question Period before the House fell, a particularly 
spirited session.  The Bloc accused the government of being 
in cahoots with the CIA and allowing planes with terrorist 
suspects to land in Canada on their way to Guantanamo.  The 
NDP questioned how the government could allow the sale of a 
"piece of Canada to the U.S." because of the purchase of a 
Canadian company by the U.S. firm Kinder Morgan, while 
warning against the "creeping Americanization of health 
care."  And the Conservatives carried on their week-long 
campaign to question the Liberal's ability to solve the 
softwood dispute on good terms for Canada. 
 
5. (C) Standing up to the Americans will be the primary 
cross-border campaign theme for the Liberals, and has already 
come across three times.  In the PM's first speech 
immediately following his notification of the Governor 
General that the government had lost the confidence of the 
House, he said that the Liberals would do a better job than 
anyone else in "standing up to the United States" on trade 
disputes, which he has repeated several times since.  On 
December 7 the PM gave a press scrum to a domestic audience 
following his climate change speech to an international 
audience.  In the international speech he did not mention the 
U.S. by name, but when talking to Canadian voters he used the 
opportunity to say "to the reticent nations, including the 
U.S., I say there is such a thing as a global conscience, and 
now is the time to listen to it."  And one of his five points 
to help control gun violence in Toronto was to add border 
guards who could stop the flow of guns from the United 
States.  We can expect the theme of standing up to the 
Americans to be a persistent one in the Liberal campaign. 
 
CONSERVATIVES -- DON'T STAND TOO CLOSE TO ME 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) If the Liberals are schizophrenic in the campaign when 
it comes to relations with the U.S., the Conservatives are 
simply living a double life.  Conservative MPs flock to the 
residence for functions and often are effusive in their 
praise for the President and First Lady; they are in awe at 
the thought of a conservative party having the kind of 
widespread support that the Republicans have in the U.S. 
From social policy, to foreign policy, we can find droves of 
true believers among the Conservatives who simply wish Canada 
were more like the U.S. 
 
7. (C) But the Conservatives know that if they are to get 
elected, they cannot let this affinity for the U.S. show, and 
in fact must demonstrate real coolness for their cousins to 
the south.  The issue nationally is winning seats in 
riding-rich Ontario, where they see real potential among 
economic conservatives, who are drawn to the small 
government, no corruption, low-taxation policies of the 
Conservatives, but might be nervous about certain social 
policies or a too "militaristic" foreign policy.  To get to 
these voters the Conservatives will need to maintain a 
healthy distance from the U.S.  This was a large part of the 
reason why, after supporting Canadian involvement in the 
missile defense program for years, they did an about face in 
the spring of 2005 and recommended further consideration. 
 
8. (C) The Conservatives hope to convince voters that they 
will have better luck in managing relations with the U.S. 
because they will not engage in the constant criticism that 
has damaged the relationship under Liberal stewardship, but 
will not make Canada America's lap dog in the process.  The 
litmus test for this for the past year has been Iraq, and 
Liberal politicians continue to tell Canadians that if the 
Conservatives had been in power there would likely be 
Canadian soldiers in Iraq today.  The Conservatives must keep 
a very healthy distance from Iraq and the other aspects of 
the war on terror that Canadians find objectionable, while 
arguing that they will be able to take issues to Washington, 
such as softwood, and have them seriously considered. 
 
LE BLOC QUEBECOIS -- SINGLE RANDOM ISSUES 
----------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The Bloc will likely be the least strategic of the 
parties in how it uses the U.S. in the campaign.  There is a 
real affection by Quebeckers for America and its people, 
while true consternation for what is perceived as the 
unilateralism and militarism of the current U.S. 
administration.  But any use of the United States by Bloc 
politicians will be intended to win votes, not lose friends, 
and will be aimed at the Liberal Party.  As Bloc politicians 
have done in question period over the past six months there 
could be talk of the unfairness of the U.S. softwood position 
and of Canadian involvement in the global war on terror.  The 
issue will always be that the Liberal government has not done 
enough to protect Canada's interests, has even sold out to 
the U.S. at times, and as a consequence the best thing for 
Quebecers is to be free to manage their own affairs.  "We 
can't trust the Liberals" will be the key Bloc theme and the 
U.S. will, at times, play into it. 
 
NDP -- NO CREEPING AMERICANIZATION 
---------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Of all the parties, only the NDP has a position on 
the U.S. that is grounded in ideology and not politics.  The 
NDP wants for Canada to be different, and is genuinely 
concerned with any policies or government that brings it too 
close to the U.S. business culture, health care system, and 
foreign policy.  The NDP believes this position will appeal 
to a large number of Canadians.  Specifically, it will 
campaign against the creeping Americanization of health care, 
Canadian participation in U.S.-style military operations in 
Afghanistan which causes it to stray from the country's roots 
as peacekeepers, and the sale of Canadian companies to U.S. 
financial interests.  It will also continue to highlight the 
Liberal failure to do enough on softwood, although with a 
focus on helping labor, emphasizing that more should have 
been done to assist the industry with subsidies and 
compensation.  One of Jack Layton's final statements in the 
last question period was "we are not going to simply sit by 
and twiddle our thumbs while we see this crisis unfold in our 
industry."  The NDP will run on the platform of being the 
un-Americans, rather than the anti-Americans. 
 
11. (C) Comment: The anti-American or un-American thread is a 
constant one in Canada, the unfortunate reality that Trudeau 
described in 1969 when he said "living next to you is in some 
ways like sleeping with an elephant.  No matter how friendly 
and even-tempered is the beast. . . one is affected by every 
twitch and grunt."  There is an element of cognitive 
dissonance in this, however, as being anti-anything is very 
un-Canadian.  So with very few exceptions, it is largely just 
rhetoric and we shouldn't take it too seriously.  And 
compared to the last campaign, we seem to be in pretty good 
shape.  It would appear that the appeal by Ambassador Wilkins 
and the Secretary to "tone down the Anti-American rhetoric" 
may have had an impact for a time, but we suggest that as the 
campaign heats up so will the "let's stand up to the U.S. 
message." 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
WILKINS