US embassy cable - 05MINSK1488

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001488 
 
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/15 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BO 
SUBJECT: DAS Kramer Meets with Civil Society Leaders 
 
Ref: A) Minsk 1437, B) Minsk 1387, C) Minsk 1343, D) Minsk 
 
1473 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: On December 6, EUR Deputy Assistant 
Secretary David Kramer met with civil society leaders who 
 
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called for increased support to independent media, 
including radio broadcasts and, above all, print media. 
The amendments to the criminal code (approvedbyboth 
hmbers of Prliament on December 2 and 8) were a sign 
that Lkashenko is frightened, but would be effective inscaring many potential political activists.  They lso 
predicted that the GOB would hinder independnt 
observations during the presidential election, even with 
OSCE presence.  End Summary. 
 
Belaus' Situation and Elections 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) DAS Kramer told civil societyand human rights 
leaders that Washington's interst in Belarus continues to 
grow and asked what te U.S. could do to help democratize 
Belarus.  Lumila Gryaznova, leader of the Human Rights 
Defendrs Alliance, told Kramer that the situation in 
Blarus was not as bad as it looked.  Gryaznova note the 
recent amendments to the criminal code, whih introduce 
prison sentences for giving "false iformation" and 
protesting (ref A), was proof thatthe GOB leadership was 
genuinely afraid.  Howeve, she admitted that the 
amendments would limit te opposition's ability to form a 
movement beforethe elections.  Gryaznova added that 
activists mst continue working together using tools it 
curretly has available, such as the single candidate.People should not panic or be afraid and aim for cange in 
2006, not in 2007 or 2008. 
 
3. C) Kramr asked whether the bill of amendments to the 
crminal code would significantly intensify the level f 
repression in Belarus or just formalizes the GB's actions 
that were already in place.  Deputy irector of the NGO 
Partnership Irina Bronitskayapointed out that had the new 
bill been a law whe she was arrested in October, her ten- 
day sentene in jail would have been two years in prison. 
Gyaznova did not expect the authorities to use the aw to 
its full extent and disagreed with leader f the Women's 
Independent Democratic Movement Lumila Petina that the GOB 
would use the law to arrest key opposition figures.  Deputy 
editor of indpendent newspaper Narodnaya Volya (NV) 
Svetlana alinkina opined that it would scare people from 
articipating in pro-democracy activities. 
 
Forein Radio Broadcasts and Media 
---------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Gryaznova claimed that people constantly complain to 
her about the lack of independent information and do not 
believe what they hear on television.  Kalinkina told 
Kramer that the independent media was the most important 
instrument to initiate change in Belarus.  However, it was 
suffering after losing contracts with state printing and 
distribution companies (Ref B).  NV is now printed in 
Smolensk, but its distribution with GOB monopoly Belpochta 
will end in January, denying 30,000 subscribers their daily 
paper.  Kalinkina claimed that the independent press was 
critical to the election campaign of independent candidates 
and, as a last resort, volunteers would have to distribute 
the papers. 
 
5. (C) Kramer asked the activists for their assessment of 
the effectiveness of foreign radio broadcasting and its 
impact in Belarus.  Petina opined that FM broadcasts would 
be effective, but needed to be implemented quickly so that 
people were aware of the station well ahead of the 
elections.  Radio, however, should not be a substitute for 
the written press.  Gryaznova agreed and noted that radio 
broadcasts should provide not just news, but analysis and 
modern music in order to grab the attention of the majority 
of Belarusians. 
 
6. (C) Kalinkina disagreed that radio broadcasts would have 
a significant effect in Belarus because Minsk, which is the 
only place in Belarus where a popular rejection of 
Lukashenko's regime would commence, is too far from the 
country's borders to pick up the signal.  Satellite TV and 
radio frequencies would be a better option since the GOB 
would have more difficulties scrambling the signal.  Kramer 
said that satellite TV was unpractical because of the money 
and time needed and that the U.S. would like to see 
 
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broadcasts begin by January. 
 
7. (C) Zhanna Litvina, director of the Belarusian 
Association of Journalists, opined that activists and their 
supporters must change their behavior to adapt to current 
conditions in Belarus.  The independent press needs as much 
legal help as possible to survive and should not try to be 
an equal competitor to Belarusian TV or Sovietsky Belarus. 
Secondly, the independent press has the needed technology 
and know-how to continue its work underground, but would 
need material assistance.  Noting that the UNDP was ending 
its internet support program as of February 1, Litvina 
stressed that more funding should be directed to develop 
internet news portals and alternative sources of 
information.  Lastly, all radio broadcasts should be legal 
and legally financed.  Television is more effective, but it 
is impossible in Belarus, so radio broadcasting is the most 
viable option. 
 
8. (C) Litvina opined that the Belarusian language should 
be used in radio broadcasts.  She noted that Belarus was a 
separate nation, not a part of Russia, with its own 
language that it should not be ashamed of.  Gryaznova did 
not necessarily disagree, but told Kramer that in order to 
grab the majority of Belarusians' attention, radio 
broadcasts must speak their common language, Russian.  She 
noted average citizens turn off the radio or toss aside 
newspapers if Belarusian is being used.  Radio broadcasts 
need to first establish contact with the audience. 
Afterwards, Belarusian could slowly be worked into the 
programming. 
 
Election Observations 
--------------------- 
 
9. (C) Bronitskaya told Kramer that her organization 
planned to observe the elections, but would face 
difficulties since Partnership's registration expired.  In 
2004, Partnership observed the Parliamentary elections, but 
now over 50 percent of Partnership's activities have 
stopped.  After Bronitskaya's and three other Partnership 
leaders' arrests in October (ref C), the organization is 
primarily concerned with members' safety and how to gather, 
share, and report information. 
 
10. (C) Bronitskaya just returned from Moscow where she met 
with the OSCE and ODIHR to discuss Belarus' presidential 
elections.  To date, Belarus' Central Election Committee 
(CEC) has not invited OSCE observers to watch the election 
process.  Bronitskaya is positive that the GOB would 
eventually invite the OSCE, only because the government 
risks portraying itself badly in front of the world. 
However, the head of the CEC indicated that the election- 
monitoring mission should not be large so as not to 
"interfere" with the work of the election commissions. 
Bronitskaya added that under the current election 
monitoring regulations, observers are not physically able 
to observe much of the election proceedings.  According to 
Bronitskaya, the OSCE mission in Belarus is slowly changing 
its methods after realizing that being politically correct 
and trying not to offend the GOB does not work.  Of course 
election observers from the CIS would be invited and will 
do a "pretty" job claiming the elections were legitimate. 
Bronitskaya predicted that Belarus would soon adopt 
Russia's method of financing pro-government observers to 
achieve the desired results. 
 
11. (C) Kramer told Bronitskaya that during his December 6 
meeting at the MFA (ref D), he stressed Belarus' obligation 
to invite OSCE observers as soon as possible.  He noted 
that in order to accurately observe the elections, OSCE 
observers need to be on the ground and not invited at the 
last minute. 
 
12. (C) Litvina opined that all independent civil society 
organizations were hostages to the upcoming presidential 
election.  She warned Kramer that if all financed NGO 
projects were focused only on the 2006 elections, then the 
democratic movement and international partners would lose 
much more afterwards.  Civil society groups and their 
donors must keep projects going and help Belarusians who 
have questions about their future. 
 
Keep Up the Good Work 
--------------------- 
 
13. (C) DAS Kramer told the leaders that he would not be 
doing his job if he did not pass on President Bush and 
Secretary Rice's commitment to Belarus.  He said that their 
 
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work was critical to Belarus' future and all its citizens 
should take pride in what they do.  Such leaders as those 
of civil society organizations are what keep the world 
optimistic that things will change in Belarus. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14. (C) The group of women presented DAS Kramer with a 
variety of views about the prospects for democratic change 
in Belarus, but all expressed optimism that the current 
situation would not last forever.  Small steps to change 
seemed to be the group's approach.  In order to see this 
democratic change, all stressed that the independent media 
needs to be supported and people should not be afraid of 
the GOB's draconian measures. 
 
KROL