US embassy cable - 05AMMAN9516

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 009516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQ SUNNI OUTREACH: AMMAN MEETING WITH 
EX-MINISTER OF TRADE MOHAMMED AL-JABOURI AND SHEIKH ADNAN 
AL-JABOURI 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE, REASONS: 1.4 (B &D) 
 
Sheikh Adnan Al-Jabouri and the "Arab Iraqi List" 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
1.  (C) Prominent Salah ad-Din Sunni figure Adnan al-Jabouri 
told Emboff on November 30 that he is supporting the "Arab 
Iraqi List," a regional party possibly affilited with Hassib 
al-Obeidi's Arab List.  The meeting occurred at the request 
of his cousin, former Minister of Trade Mohammed al-Jabouri, 
who is now working as an energy consultant in Amman.  Adnan 
had just returned from a week in Riyadh, where he met with 
Saudi officials, along with Hassib al-Obeidi and other 
figures from Salah ad-Din, Mosul, and Kirkuk. 
 
Bringing Insurgents onto the "Political Track"... 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Adnan claimed that he has the blessing of the major 
Sunni political movements, as well as that of Iyad Allawi, to 
help develop a list of core principles on Iraq,s future that 
would be acceptable to these various political groupings and 
to a significant body of "nationalist insurgents."  He said 
that the goal of the effort is to increase the policy 
coherence of the Sunni parties and the Allawi coalition, 
bring more insurgent groups "onto the political track," and 
hopefully prepare the groundwork for a post-election 
Sunni/Allawi alliance. 
 
...Through an "All-Sunni" Manifesto 
--------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The immediate aim of such an effort would be a signed 
manifesto-like document declaring the shared principles, and 
the formation of united Sunni political committees for Anbar, 
Diyala, Salah ad-Din, Ninewa, and Baghdad.  Adnan Jabouri 
said he would be meeting in Iraq in the coming week with 
Mishaan al-Jabouri and others, including some pro-insurgency 
figures, in pursuit of these goals.  Note: Al-Jabouri took 
pains to differentiate this effort from the similar 
Anbar-oriented proposal launched last September by Abdul 
Latif Humayum and Saleh Mutlak.  End Note. 
 
Iraq Election Comments 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) On the upcoming elections, al-Jabouri opined that 
Iyad Allawi will have difficulty winning seats in many parts 
of the south, but suggested that Allawi could potentially do 
well in Baghdad, Basra, Nasiriyyah, and the Central 
Euphrates.  He claimed that Muqtada al Sadr is gaining ground 
among Sh,ia voters, and may be supported by one third of 
them, while Sh,ia support for Da'wa and SCIRI is weakening. 
Commenting that "no one party will be able to rule Iraq from 
now on," Mohammed al-Jabouri (backed by Adnan) made the 
following election result predictions: 
 
Sunni Arab Groups - 55-60 seats 
 
Allawi Coalition - 50-55 seats 
 
Kurds - 45-50 seats 
 
5.  (C) The al-Jabouris contend that if the election produces 
150 seats among the three above groups, they would be joined 
by independent Sh,ia, such as Shal,an and Chalabi, and end 
up with a two-thirds majority.   In response, they predicted 
that Da'wa, SCIRI, and the pro-Iranians will "try to create 
an Anbar in the south." 
 
Follow-Up 
------- 
 
6.  (C) Adnan al-Jabouri agreed to meet with USG 
representatives in Salah ad-Din, and to assist in USG 
contacts with Jabouri tribal figures from Syria.  He claimed 
that the Jabouris are the biggest tribe in Syria.  Mohammed 
al-Jabouri, Director General of the State Oil Marketing 
Organization (SOMO) from May-November, 2003, and Minister of 
Trade under Iyad Allawi, was emphatic that he will accept no 
appointment in any future Iraqi government. 
HALE