US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4345

UNCLAS  ALMATY 004345 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN:  EXIT POLL RESULTS VARY WIDELY, BUT 
CONFIRM VICTORY 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  At least six exit polls were conducted 
during Kazakhstan's presidential elections.  The results of 
the exit polls ranged widely.  On the high end, the Center 
for Political Technologies gave Nazarbayev 87.4% of the 
vote, while on the low end, the Kazakhstan Institute of 
Social-Economic Information and Forecasting concluded that 
Nazarbayev received 77.6% of the vote.  On December 6, the 
Central Elections Committee announced the official results 
of the elections, affirming that 91.15% voted to re-elect 
President Nursultan Nazarbayev.  The leading opposition 
candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay finished a distant second 
with 6.61% of the vote, according to the CEC.  Post finds 
the discrepancy between the exit poll numbers and the CEC's 
final tally problematic, and is waiting for the CEC to 
publish the voting results. 
 
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The Main Pollsters 
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2. (U) The results of an exit poll commissioned by the 
International Republican Institute (IRI) showed that 83.2% 
voted to re-elect President Nazarbayev.  Tuyakbay came in 
second receiving 9.9%.  The exit poll was conducted 
nationwide by the Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys. 
Bilingual interviewers surveyed 23,780 voters at 283 polling 
stations in all 14 oblasts, Astana, and Almaty.  The margin 
of error was +/- one percent.  Baltic Surveys is the 
Lithuania-based office of the Gallup Organization. 
 
3. (U) The Association of Sociologists and Political 
Scholars of Kazakhstan (ASIP) announced that 86.9% voted to 
re-elect President Nazarbayev.  The main opposition 
candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, finished second with 8.4% of 
the vote.  ASIP interviewed 333,392 voters at 313 election 
precincts in all 14 oblasts, Astana, Almaty, and 
Semiplatinsk.  More than 26% of people approached refused to 
give an answer. 
 
4. (SBU) The ASIP poll was financially supported by Astana 
TV Company, which is reportedly owned by presidential son-in- 
law Timur Kulibayev, and several other unspecified regional 
organizations, according to ASIP's chair Bakhtyzhamal 
Bekturganova.  The support was relatively modest, said 
Bekturganova. 
 
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Secondary Groups 
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5. (U) According to an exit poll conducted by the Kazakhstan 
Institute of Social-Economic Information and Forecasting 
(KISCIP), Nazarbayev received 77.6% of the vote, while 13.4% 
voted for the opposition candidate Tuyakbay.  The exit poll 
was conducted in eight regions, Astana, and Almaty. 
Interviewers surveyed 16,000 people at 400 polling stations. 
More than a third refused to answer the questionnaire. 
 
6. (SBU) The KISCIP exit poll was financed by the 
International Institute of Modern Politics, headed by first 
daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva.  Sabit Zhusupov, director of 
KISCIP, stated confidently that his poll results were 
correct and could not explain the higher results announced 
by the CEC.  Zhusupov is a respected academic who, according 
to our contacts, usually works for whoever will pay the 
bills. 
 
7. (U) KazRATING, which conducted its exit poll only in 
Almaty, reported 78.3% voted to re-elect Nazarbayev and 14% 
voted for the opposition candidate Tuyakbay.  Kazrating 
interviewed 4,877 people at 122 polling stations.  The 
margin of error was 1.5%. 
 
8. (SBU) It is unclear who funded KazRATING's exit poll. 
Erlan Karin, the head of KazRATING, is a respected political 
scientist and may have ties to the government, according to 
two local political watchers.  Karin is a former deputy 
chairman of the Asar Party, but quit the party in late 2004 
for unspecified reasons.  KazRATING conducted several polls 
ahead of the elections to gauge public opinion about the 
presidential candidates.  In their final poll conducted on 
November 20 in Almaty, 76.3% of respondents said they would 
vote for Nazarbayev.  (Comment:  Given that the opposition 
 
 
is strongest in Almaty, it is not surprising that a poll 
conducted only in the `southern capital' would produce the 
lowest result for Nazarbayev.  End comment.) 
 
9. (U) The Center for Political Technologies (CPT), a Moscow- 
based think-tank and consulting firm, gave Nazarbayev 87.4% 
of the vote and Tuyakbay 8.5%, according to their exit poll. 
CPT surveyed 29,000 voters in 290 precincts.  The CPT was 
founded in 1991 and is headed by Dr. Igor Bunin.  The CPT 
runs the website www.politcom.ru and reportedly has a 
diverse client base, including the Russian government and 
business. 
 
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An Unknown 
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10. (U) A lesser-known organization called the Eurasian 
Rating Agency claimed that Nazarbayev received 84.5% of the 
vote, while opposition candidate Tuyakbay came in second 
with 9.6%.  Their exit poll was conducted in all the 
regional capitals, Almaty, Astana, and Semiplatinsk.  A 
total of 12,000 voters at 68 polling stations were 
interviewed. 
 
11. (SBU) It is unclear who funded Eurasian Rating Agency's 
exit poll, but according to Interfax, the group was working 
with Channel 31, a media outlet reportedly controlled by 
National Security Council Secretary Bolat Utemuratov, to 
conduct the poll. 
 
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Comment 
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12. (SBU) Comment:  The result of this election was never in 
doubt.  The USAID-financed poll that IRI carried out in 
September before the campaign began had predicted 86% vote 
for Nazarbayev.  At the time, we dismissed this as totally 
unrealistic even as the Gallup organization representative 
that had supervised the poll strenuously defended the 
result.  Our expectation was a maximum of 80% for 
Nazarbayev, and our sources in the Presidential 
Administration had told us their internal polls consistently 
produced a 70-75% vote for the incumbent.  The exit polls 
clearly confirm that Nazarbayev won the election by an 
overwhelming and completely unpredicted margin.  Even the 
most carefully designed and executed exit polls can have 
significant errors.  The 2004 U.S. exit polls predicted a 
Kerry victory by 3%, while in fact President Bush won the 
popular vote by 2.5% -- a total error of 5.5%.  IRI's Gallup- 
managed poll had a difference of almost 8%. 
 
13. (SBU) Comment, continued: While there is no evidence at 
this point of systematic or widespread rigging of election 
results, one very plausible explanation for the gap includes 
fraud.  Even if not centrally directed, this casts doubt on 
the effectiveness, if not the sincerity, of the GOK's 
promise to ensure clean elections.  Moreover, the lower the 
reported vote totals for the opposition, the less likely 
they are to reconcile themselves to the results (and to 
participate in the political process).  In addition, the 
lower numbers may also reduce their influence on the 
political scene, both with the general public and among 
political elites.  The release of precinct-by-precinct 
results, which is getting underway on December 8, is 
expected to shed light on the tabulation question.  IRI is 
already planning to analyze their exit poll data on a 
precinct-level basis.  End comment. 
 
ORDWAY